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Netflix 公司:三季度无重大变化;维持中性评级,目标价 1275 美元
2025-10-27 00:31
Summary of Netflix Inc. 3Q Results and Outlook Company Overview - **Company**: Netflix Inc (NFLX) - **Industry**: Streaming Services Key Financial Results - **3Q Revenue**: $11.51 billion, reflecting a **17% growth** year-over-year, in line with guidance [1][18] - **Operating Income**: $3.25 billion, with an operating margin of **28.2%**, slightly below the expected **31.5%** [1][18] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: $2.66 billion, exceeding expectations by **21.7%** [1][18] - **GAAP EPS**: $5.87, which is **14.4%** lower than the expected $6.86 [1][18] 4Q Outlook - **Revenue Growth**: Expected to decelerate to **16%** due to foreign exchange headwinds and increased churn in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - **Operating Margin**: Projected at **23.9%**, slightly below consensus [1] - **Brazil Tax Impact**: Ongoing tax expense of approximately **$40 million per quarter**, contributing to margin pressure [1] Subscriber Metrics - **Global Paid Streaming Subscribers**: 319.1 million, with net adds of **7 million** in 3Q [1][18] - **Regional Performance**: - **UCAN**: 1.25 million net adds - **EMEA**: 2.75 million net adds - **LATAM**: 1 million net adds - **APAC**: 2 million net adds [1][18] Advertising Revenue - **Ad Revenue Growth**: Expected to double from approximately **$1.5 billion in 2024 to $3 billion in 2025** [1][7] - **Ad Tier Subscribers**: Projected to grow significantly, with a year-over-year growth rate of **78.9%** [1][23] Content Strategy - **Content Slate for 4Q**: Strong lineup including the final season of *Stranger Things* and new films, which is expected to drive engagement [1][7] - **Engagement Metrics**: Total view hours grew slightly faster than the **1% growth** in the first half of 2025, with Netflix capturing **8.6%** of TV time in the US [1][7] M&A Considerations - **M&A Potential**: Management indicated openness to selective mergers and acquisitions to enhance content offerings and intellectual property [1] Valuation and Price Target - **Price Target**: Reduced from **$1,300 to $1,275** based on a valuation of **36x 2027E GAAP EPS of $35.55** [1][11] - **Market Cap**: Approximately **$538.79 billion** [9] Other Notable Points - **Expense Growth**: Overall expense growth is expected to align with 2025 levels, excluding the Brazil tax catch-up [1] - **Future Guidance**: No guidance provided for 2026; to be discussed in the 4Q earnings call [1] This summary encapsulates the key financial metrics, strategic insights, and future outlook for Netflix Inc. as discussed in the recent earnings call.