Market Analysis & Investment Strategy - The market has froth, but positive stories overwhelm it, making rational investments viable [2][3] - Insider buying in Eli Lilly (LLY) suggests a positive outlook, leading to a rerating of the stock [5][6] - The market in 2024 is not like the dot-com bubble of 1999-2000, as rational investments still exist [21][24] - Skepticism towards companies buying crypto on margin and consultant companies like Palantir is viewed as irrational; Palantir is considered cheap using the rule of 40 [14][16] Company Performance & Initiatives - Amazon's move to same-day grocery delivery is a disruptive initiative, potentially impacting Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber [3][4] - Charles Schwab experienced a 17% increase in net new assets month over month [7] - Cisco's AI-related orders from webscale customers exceeded $2 billion in fiscal year 2025, more than double the initial target of $1 billion [62] - Universal Technical Institute (UTI) reported weaker than expected new student starts, causing a stock plunge of nearly 19%, but year-to-date starts are up over 14% [27][28][31] Economic Trends & Inflation - Wage deflation, driven by automation and AI, is expected to impact hiring and layoffs in various sectors, including law, accounting, and advertising [109][112] - Companies are hesitant to hire due to the cost of labor and the potential for digitization and automation to replace human workers [103][110] - Amazon's expansion of same-day grocery delivery to 2,300 cities could impact competitors like DoorDash, Instacart, Kroger, and Target [105][106]

Labor Market & Wage Deflation - The labor market is experiencing wage deflation, which will become more apparent soon [14] - Companies are hesitant to hire due to the high cost of labor and are exploring digitization and automation ("agentics") as alternatives [4][3] - AI is expected to contribute to wage deflation in law firms, accounting firms, and advertising firms, as these organizations are reluctant to hire due to the potential for AI to replace jobs [10][11][12] - Layoffs are anticipated in host banks due to mergers and acquisitions, specifically Capital One's acquisition of Discover [8] Company Specifics & Industry Trends - Intel's balance sheet is weak and may require government intervention [2] - Amazon is expanding same-day grocery delivery to 2,300 cities, potentially impacting DoorDash, Instacart, Kroger, and Target [6][7] - FedEx and Amazon are utilizing robots in warehouses, reducing the need for human labor and lowering delivery costs [5] - Mergers and acquisitions are expected to increase, leading to layoffs, especially with the Biden administration's de facto ban on M&A activity ending [9] Inflation & Producer Price Index (PPI) - The focus should be on wage deflation rather than outliers in the PPI, such as trucking prices and diesel, which are expected to reverse [8] - Tariffs may force companies to raise prices, but wage deflation will ultimately be more significant [13][14]