1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to medium - term, before the New Year's Day, funds take profits, causing base metals to rise and then fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply and demand, so the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - Different metals have different price trends: copper prices are expected to be strong due to strong supply contraction expectations; alumina prices are under pressure with weak cost support; aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong due to positive macro expectations; aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong with cost support; zinc prices will oscillate with non - ferrous metals due to the divergence of domestic and foreign inventory trends; lead prices may weaken in supply and demand despite rebounding with non - ferrous metals; nickel prices will oscillate due to Indonesian policy expectations; stainless steel prices will oscillate as nickel iron prices rise; tin prices will oscillate at a high level due to the resilience of rigid demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: China's copper smelters set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/pound. In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to November was 11.76%. On December 29, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the contract [7]. - Logic: The US economy is resilient, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions increase, and the long - term processing fee hits a record low. Chinese copper smelters plan to reduce production, strengthening the supply contraction expectation. Demand is weak in the off - season, and LME's position limit reduces the risk of a short squeeze [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On December 29, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina rose, and the national weighted index also increased. The alumina warehouse receipt decreased [7][8]. - Logic: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity fluctuates, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the inventory is still accumulating. Raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is general. The warehouse receipt is being destocked, but there is pressure on the upper side of the price [8]. - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate [8]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On December 29, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods rose. In November 2025, China's unforged aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. South32 raised the offer price of aluminum ingot premiums to Japan [9]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Domestic production capacity is high, while overseas power shortages may tighten supply in the long term. High aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates [9][10]. - Outlook: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong. In the medium - term, the price center may rise [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On December 29, the price of Baotai ADC12 increased, and the warehouse receipt increased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started trial production [11]. - Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate increased, but there are still risks of production cuts in the medium - term. Demand may weaken marginally after the end of the automotive seasonal sales rush [11]. - Outlook: In the short - and medium - term, aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On December 29, the spot prices of zinc in different regions had different premiums to the main contract. As of December 29, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. In November 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports increased [12][13]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and smelter profits decline, reducing zinc ingot production. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average. In the short - term, zinc ingot exports will continue, and social inventory may decline. In the long - term, supply may increase while demand growth is limited [13]. - Outlook: In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, there is a possibility of price decline [13]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On December 29, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots also rose. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the futures warehouse receipt increased slightly [14]. - Logic: The spot premium decreased, and the original - recycled price difference increased. The price of waste batteries rose, expanding the smelting profit of recycled lead, and production is expected to increase. Demand from electric bicycles weakens, and the battery factory's operating rate declines marginally [14][15]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On December 29, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt increased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore RKAB and the mineral benchmark price calculation formula [15][16][17]. - Logic: Domestic nickel production decreased in November, but Indonesian production increased, and overall supply pressure remains. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is weak. If Indonesia's RKAB plan is implemented, the supply - demand balance will improve [18]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Some Indonesian nickel mines face fines [19]. - Logic: Nickel iron prices rise, providing cost support. Stainless steel production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [20]. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [21]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On December 29, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt decreased. The spot price of tin ingots rose [21]. - Logic: Tin supply is a major concern. Chinese imports from Myanmar increase, but there are still risks. Indonesian supply may be restricted in Q1 2026. African production is limited. Demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the growth of related industries [21]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [21]. 3.2行情监测 - Copper: No specific monitoring information provided [24]. - Alumina: No specific monitoring information provided [39]. - Aluminum: No specific monitoring information provided [52]. - Aluminum Alloy: No specific monitoring information provided [65]. - Zinc: No specific monitoring information provided [76]. - Lead: No specific monitoring information provided [89]. - Nickel: No specific monitoring information provided [103]. - Stainless Steel: No specific monitoring information provided [119]. - Tin: No specific monitoring information provided [129]. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2676.44, with a daily decline of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 3.18%, a 1 - month increase of 6.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.95% [147][149].

Core Insights - Gold and silver have reached historic highs, with gold surpassing $4,500 an ounce and silver exceeding $75 for the first time, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a declining US dollar, and rising global tensions [1][10][16] Market Performance - Gold has increased approximately 73% for the year, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979, while silver has surged by 150% to 160%, significantly outpacing gold's gains [4][16] - Spot gold reached a record high of $4,530.60 an ounce earlier in the session before stabilizing above the $4,500 mark [2][14] Economic Factors - The anticipated pivot of the Federal Reserve towards an easing cycle, including interest rate cuts, has reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive compared to bonds and cash [5] - A weaker US dollar has further enhanced gold's appeal, making it cheaper for international buyers and driving global demand [5] Geopolitical Influences - Increased safe-haven buying has been observed due to rising geopolitical risks, including tensions in Venezuela, instability in the Middle East, the war in Eastern Europe, and recent US military actions in Nigeria [6] Central Bank Activity - Central banks, particularly in China, India, and Poland, have aggressively accumulated gold, purchasing over 1,000 metric tons for the third consecutive year, indicating a strategic shift to diversify reserves away from the dollar [12]

The CNBC app, global market news in one place. Customizable sections and personalized alerts. Stocks tracking, interactive charts and market insights, all in your hands.Stay connected, stay informed. Download the CNBC app today. Ah, it's my favorite Friday of the month.Payroll. Hang on a second. Oh, there's no payroll.Dang. Anyway, it's still Squadbox Europe and you still have Karen Cho and Juliana Tattlebalm. And yes, despite the shutdown, Steve Sedick is still here.I know it's a shame. These are your head ...