Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that bond markets may be overly focused on inflation, neglecting the risk of a deeper growth scare, indicating that downside risks to yields are currently underpriced following recent energy-driven volatility [1][2] - A significant rise in energy prices could shift market attention from persistent inflation to demand destruction and weaker growth, potentially leading to lower yields and sustained volatility [2] - The bank remains cautious about outright volatility selling in US rates, advocating for more selective positioning instead, as implied volatility has reset higher [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that receiver spreads are the preferred limited-risk hedge against a left-tail outcome, while recent repricing in payer skew could be managed through risk reversals rather than outright volatility selling [3] - The current state of 2-year US Treasury risk reversals is at its lowest since the peak of the hiking cycle, indicating that markets are still paying a premium for protection against higher yields while underestimating risks related to the labor market and growth [3]