It's split programming, though, because at the same time that these issues are being debated, that might. Johnson Speaker Johnson is going on media saying that it's the Democrats fault. You also have Caroline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, going on Fox, literally at the same time saying that they're going to look at across the board layoffs, that the White House is using this as an excuse to fire people.Usually when these moments of tensions, when government shutdowns happen, people are just like ...

As Labour prepares for its annual conference, Keir Starmer's best defense against Andy Burnham may be the bond market, argues Martin Ivens (via @opinion) https://t.co/YOAUtyXgqK ...

The Bank of England is set to rein in its quantitative tightening program amid concerns that its gilt sales are worsening volatility in the bond market https://t.co/7dbQM1ZwCy ...

Well, joining me now is Bridge Corano, Wellington fixed income portfolio manager. Bridge, what do you expect to really move the bond market tomorrow. I mean, we assuming we get the quarter point everybody expects there's going to be a lot of contention among uh the Fed voters, possibly more than we've ever had.Yeah, no doubt. I mean, I think we are definitely going to get that 25 basis point cut. Um I think there will probably be three descents to your point asking for 50 basis points.What the market's real ...

Bond Market Analysis - Bond market's recent swings lack a clear cause [1] - Potential culprits point to sustained weaker demand for the longest bonds [1]

Trade Policy & Tariffs - The Supreme Court is reviewing tariffs related to the emergency powers act (IPA), potentially requiring the US to issue massive rebates if the tariffs are deemed illegal [3][4] - The US has collected slightly less than $100 billion from IEPA tariffs so far [5] - The administration has until October 14th to appeal to the Supreme Court, with a ruling potentially delayed until next summer, creating significant uncertainty [5] - The administration could use statutes 232 and 301 to reimpose reciprocal tariffs if IPA is struck down, but this would keep businesses in tariff limbo [6][7] Bond Market & Interest Rates - The bond market is reacting to expectations of reduced tariff revenue, potentially negatively impacting stocks and leading to higher interest rates [9] - S&P maintained the US credit rating last month largely due to increased tariff revenue, which was expected to offset negative fiscal impacts from the $34 trillion one big beautiful bill [10] Economic Impact - Potential refunds due to the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding trade policy are key concerns for businesses [7]

What is going on. Let's answer that question with Andy Brener, head of International Fixed Income at National Alliance. He puts out must-read market commentary, and he joins us now.Andy, it's great to have you back on the program. It's been too long. What is happening with global fixed income markets.Brian, it's it's a new month and uh what you have is a lot of supply coming. You have supply coming all throughout Europe and you have supply today in the in the corporate markets. We counted about 25 deals tod ...

Market Reaction to Fed Policies - The market initially reacted to news regarding the Federal Reserve with slight rate increases and dollar softness, but these movements reversed quickly, indicating a strong focus on potential Fed rate cuts [2][3] - The market is closely watching for signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts, particularly focusing on upcoming jobs and inflation data to guide the Fed's direction [5][6] - The bond market presents opportunities for various perspectives: the front end of the curve suggests rate cuts, while the back end reflects concerns about longer-term implications [7] Treasury Supply and Yields - Increased supply of treasuries, coupled with a potentially dovish Fed policy amid uncomfortable inflation levels (above the Fed's target), could lead the bond market to penalize Treasury issuance [9] - While the Treasury Secretary aims to lower the 10-year yield, market forces beyond their control are influencing it [9] - The Federal Reserve could attempt to control the back end of the curve through yield curve control and quantitative easing, but this may not be a great policy when market forces go in the opposite direction [10] Global Bond Market and Diversification - While the UK offers attractive yields, the rest of the world is converging towards the US, and the UK has its own fiscal issues [12][13] - Double Line has started to invest in local currency emerging market bonds, which offer yields around 7% without currency hedging, but with associated risks [14][16] - Developed world interest rates have been highly correlated, with Japan being the primary exception due to its reluctance to hike rates [18][19] BOJ and Global Sovereign Debt - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is known for unpredictable policies and a lack of forward guidance, making Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) less appealing [21] - High global sovereign debt levels and uncontrolled inflation suggest that rates, particularly at the back end, should be at or above current levels [22]

Garcia. Politics aside, I mean, listen, Cook might stay. We don't know.She might voluntarily resign and then Trump gets replaced or a court will uphold that this is valid and she gets replaced. If she does indeed leave the board in some form and a dove comes in, does it change the way we should look at the Fed or interest rates. >> Well, I think that we should be looking at this either way because I think regardless of what happens, clearly Trump is putting a lot of pressure here.Powell is going to be out n ...

Federal Reserve Independence & Policy - The market's calmness is partly attributed to ambiguity surrounding the President's power to fire a Federal Reserve governor and the definition of "for cause" [5] - The core concern for markets is a potential rupture in Fed independence, which could impact decision-making within the central bank [12] - Questioning the Fed's independence could hinder its ability to make decisions aligned with its legislative mandate [13] - An independent Fed is crucial for a well-performing bond market and economy, requiring respect and protection [14] Potential Rate Cuts & Economic Outlook - The Fed chair indicated openness to a potential rate cut in September, but several factors warrant caution, including inflation running above target and upcoming tariffs [16] - The possibility of a rate cut is viewed as roughly 50/50, and there's no strong support for a campaign of rate cuts [18] - Political pressure leading to a rate-cutting campaign to meet the President's requests would be detrimental to the economy, bond markets, and the Fed's credibility [19] Legal & Political Considerations - The legality of the President's actions and whether the alleged cause is sufficient for dismissal will likely be determined by the courts [2][4][10] - If the court ratifies the move, it would significantly impact Fed independence and trust in the institution as inflation fighters [19] - Accommodating political pressure for continuous rate cuts could shake the Fed's credibility, weaken the dollar, and impair the ability to finance US debt [21]