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Diageo(DEO) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-06 10:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1, organic net sales were flat, with reported net sales of $4.9 billion down 2.2% year-over-year, primarily due to the disposal of Guinness Nigeria and the Shiraz North America transaction [5][8][9] - Organic volume growth was 2.9%, offset by a negative price mix of 2.8%, largely due to the impact of Chinese white spirits [8][9] - The company updated its fiscal guidance, now expecting organic net sales growth to be flat to slightly down for the fiscal year, with organic operating profit growth projected in the low to mid-single-digit range [15][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America saw organic net sales decline by 2.7%, with U.S. spirits down 4.1%, while Diageo Beer Company grew by 9.2% [9][10] - Europe experienced organic net sales growth of 3.5%, driven by strong performance in Guinness Draft and spirits, particularly in Turkey and the Middle East [10][11] - Asia-Pacific reported a 7.5% decline in organic net sales, primarily due to reduced consumption of Chinese white spirits [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, the tequila category faced increased competitive pressure, leading to a decline in sales, while Scotch and ready-to-drink products showed strong growth [9][10][32] - Latin America (LAC) reported a robust organic net sales growth of 10.9%, led by double-digit growth in Brazil [11] - Africa saw organic sales growth of 8.9%, with broad growth across East Africa and Southwest and Central Africa [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is advancing its "Accelerate" program to strengthen its foundations for long-term sustainable growth, with a focus on cost efficiency and commercial execution [12][19] - There is a clear strategy to improve operating leverage and enhance decision-making frameworks across the organization [14][15] - The company is committed to returning to its target leverage ratio range of 2.5-3 times by fiscal 2028, supported by selective disposals [17][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging operating environment, particularly in the U.S. and Asia-Pacific, and emphasized the need for urgency in driving growth [5][6] - The management expressed confidence in achieving $3 billion in free cash flow for fiscal 2026, supported by ongoing cost management initiatives [12][17] - There is a focus on adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly in the spirits category, and leveraging opportunities in ready-to-drink products [19][84] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing a shift in consumer behavior, with a trend towards smaller sizes and lower-priced products, particularly in the tequila category [32][36] - The management is actively addressing legal challenges related to tequila credentials, ensuring consumer confidence in product quality [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on U.S. spirits performance and guidance - Management noted that U.S. spirits declined 4.1% in Q1, with some benefits from tariff pull-forwards and highlighted the need to monitor consumer takeoff closely [21][22][23] Question: Competitive pressure in the tequila market - Management acknowledged increased competition in the tequila category and discussed strategies to improve performance for brands like Don Julio and Casamigos [31][32][34] Question: EBIT guidance and margin support - Management expressed confidence in achieving low to mid-single-digit EBIT growth despite challenges, citing cost efficiencies and stronger whiskey performance as key factors [46][48][49] Question: A&P spend reduction and efficiency - Management clarified that A&P development spend was reduced by optimizing agency use and reallocating resources for better returns [57][58][61] Question: Accelerate program and savings - Management confirmed that 40% of the savings from the Accelerate program would be delivered this fiscal year, emphasizing the importance of effective resource allocation [65][66][68]