Market Overview - Major averages have recently hit record highs, with the S&P 500 closing on over 30 records [1] - There has been a significant rally of 40% from the market's bottom, leading to cautious optimism among investors [2][5] Investment Strategy - The company has raised some cash in anticipation of potential volatility during the upcoming earnings season [3][5] - A cautious approach is being adopted, following Warren Buffett's principle of being fearful when others are greedy, especially in the current information vacuum [4][11] Earnings Outlook - Concerns are raised regarding the deceleration of earnings growth among major tech companies, with the MAG 7 expected to see earnings growth drop from 32% last year to below 15% this quarter [9][10] - Capital expenditures as a percentage of free cash flow among hyperscalers have increased to 60%, impacting earnings growth and stock buybacks [8] Stock Recommendations - Estee Lauder and Diageo are highlighted as attractive defensive stocks, with potential for significant returns over a 3 to 5-year period [12][18] - Diageo is recovering from COVID impacts, targeting $3 billion in free cash flow and experiencing growth in its non-alcoholic beverage segment [17] - Estee Lauder is returning to growth with a focus on online sales, increasing from 20% to 31% of its business, and targeting $1 to $1.1 billion in operating cash flow [19][20]

Diageo World Class 大赛进入第 16 个年头，来自 51 个国家/地区的调酒师齐聚一堂，角逐这项全球最令人向往的调酒师荣誉 多伦多, Oct. 06, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- 在今年于多伦多举行的世界顶尖鸡尾酒大赛上，挪威选手 Felice Capasso 赢得了“2025 年度 World Class 全球最佳调酒师”的殊荣，为其职业生涯写下辉煌一笔。 在这场全球鸡尾酒文化的年度盛典上，Felice 与来自六大洲 51 个国家和地区的决赛选手同台竞技，经由国际顶尖行业专家评审团的一致裁定，最终脱颖而出，摘得桂冠。 Felice Capasso 任职于奥斯陆的 Nedre Løkka Cocktailbar，同时也是葡萄酒与烈酒教育中心 Sesto Senso Academy 的创始人。比赛中，他凭借一系列展现个人调酒热忱的招牌作品，从众多选手中脱颖而出。 摘得此项殊荣的同时，Felice 还将获得一座奖杯、明年全球总决赛的全程免费之旅、业界顶尖导师的亲自指导，以及为期一年的 Diageo 全球市场免费考察机会。 此外，他还将受邀到各大顶级酒吧担任客座调酒师，并主持 ...

Key Takeaways Diageo's FY25 organic sales rose 1.7%, with earnings in line with guidance despite FX and cost pressures.Growth was driven by Don Julio, Guinness, Crown Royal, and premiumization in tequila and scotch.The Accelerate program targets $625M in savings to offset margin pressure and reinvest in growth.Diageo Plc (DEO) continues to demonstrate resilience in a challenging macroeconomic environment, leveraging its premium spirits portfolio and commercial execution to deliver modest organic growth. The ...

The Radeberger Group is to become the exclusive sales, distribution and marketing partner for Estrella Damm beer in Germany from January. According to a statement from the German brewing group, Estrella owner Grupo Damm will be transferring responsibility for the national expansion of the brand to Radeberger. The long-term cooperation agreement for Estrella covers all distribution channels, including bars and restaurants in on-trade and retail/supermarkets in the off-trade. As a result, the Radeberger G ...

Core Insights - Diageo Plc's fiscal 2025 results highlight a disparity in performance between developed and emerging markets, with overall organic sales increasing by 1.7%, primarily driven by growth in emerging economies [1][7] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in high-growth markets, particularly in regions like India, Africa, and Latin America, where premiumization trends are strong [2][4] Emerging Markets Performance - Emerging markets, especially India, Africa, and Latin America, showed positive trends in both volume and price/mix, contributing significantly to Diageo's organic sales growth [1][2][7] - In India, the premiumization of whisky, particularly in the prestige segment, is supported by smaller pack sizes and potential benefits from the U.K.-India Free Trade Agreement [1][4] Developed Markets Challenges - Developed markets, including North America and Europe, faced challenges with volume declines and cautious consumer behavior, leading to subdued growth despite some price/mix gains [3][7] - North America experienced volume declines, while Europe saw softer volumes amid macroeconomic uncertainty, with price/mix gains from Guinness partially offsetting weaknesses [3][7] Strategic Focus - Diageo's growth strategy emphasizes targeted investments, localized marketing, and portfolio innovation in emerging markets to sustain momentum and offset pressures in developed markets [4] - The company aims to leverage demographic trends and rising premium spirits consumption in emerging markets as a key growth engine [4] Stock Performance - Diageo's shares have declined by 22.7% year-to-date, underperforming the industry and broader Consumer Staples sector [5] - The stock trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.23X, which is higher than the industry average of 13.95X but lower than the S&P 500's average of 23.32X, indicating a premium valuation relative to peers [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has increased its cost-saving targets from €500 million to €625 million, indicating a focus on improving operational efficiency [6][11][12] - The management emphasizes a shift from focusing solely on gross margin percentage to prioritizing operating profit dollars, which is expected to drive better growth decisions [20][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is looking to optimize its trade investment and advertising and promotion (A&P) spending, which has been growing at a higher rate than net sales value (NSV) growth [10][12] - There is a focus on maintaining commercial excellence and execution while ensuring that cost savings do not compromise essential relationships in the industry [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The management acknowledges that the U.S. market has shown growth primarily through a few successful brands, while many others in the portfolio are struggling [33][34] - The company is tracking consumer sentiment and spending power, indicating that there is still uncertainty in the U.S. consumer environment [39][40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is evaluating its portfolio for potential disposals of non-core businesses to focus on growth areas, particularly in the spirits segment [26][30] - There is a strategic shift towards understanding consumer occasions and experiences to better align the product portfolio with market demands [34][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management believes that moderation in alcohol consumption is a continuation of long-term trends rather than a sudden shift, influenced by macroeconomic pressures [29][30] - The company is not planning for significant improvements in the consumer environment for the upcoming fiscal year but is focused on what can be managed and controlled [39][40] Other Important Information - The management is exploring opportunities in lower alcohol by volume (ABV) products and ready-to-drink (RTD) formats to cater to changing consumer preferences [32][33] - The company is committed to leveraging digital media for better marketing returns and efficiency in spending [10][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company finding new cost savings? - The company is focusing on supply chain efficiencies and reallocating resources to drive operational savings while ensuring that these do not negatively impact commercial execution [7][8][10] Question: How will the company maintain relationships while cutting costs? - The management acknowledges the importance of relationships in the industry and plans to reinvest a portion of the savings into commercial excellence and execution [13][14] Question: What is the company's approach to marketing spend? - The company is looking at marketing spend holistically, focusing on effectiveness rather than just increasing budgets, and is committed to reducing wasted spending [16][17] Question: How does the company view the structural versus cyclical changes in the market? - The management believes that while there are cyclical elements, many changes in consumer behavior are structural and need to be understood in the context of long-term trends [28][29] Question: What is the outlook for the U.S. consumer market? - The management does not see immediate signs of improvement in the U.S. consumer market and is cautious in its planning for the upcoming fiscal year [39][40]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has increased its cost-saving targets from €500 million to €625 million, indicating a focus on improving operational efficiency [6][11][12] - The management emphasizes a shift from focusing solely on gross margin percentage to prioritizing operating profit dollars, which is expected to drive better growth decisions [20][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is looking to optimize its trade investment and advertising and promotion (A&P) spending, which have been growing at a higher rate than net sales value (NSV) growth [10][12] - There is a focus on reallocating resources to enhance media scale and reach through digital channels, aiming to improve return on marketing investments [10][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The management acknowledges that the U.S. market has shown growth primarily through a few successful brands, while many others in the portfolio are struggling [33][34] - The company is tracking consumer sentiment and spending power, indicating a cautious outlook on the U.S. consumer environment for the upcoming fiscal year [39][40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is undergoing a strategic review of its portfolio to identify non-core businesses for potential disposal, allowing for a more focused approach on growth areas [26][41] - There is an emphasis on understanding consumer trends and occasions to better align the product portfolio with market demands [34][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management believes that moderation in alcohol consumption is a continuation of long-term trends rather than a sudden shift, influenced by macroeconomic factors [29][30] - The company is not planning for a significant improvement in the consumer environment but is focused on managing controllable factors and building a robust growth strategy [39][40] Other Important Information - The management is exploring opportunities in lower alcohol by volume (ABV) products and ready-to-drink (RTD) formats to cater to changing consumer preferences [32][33] - There is a recognition of the need to rebuild commercial execution capabilities to maintain important industry relationships while optimizing costs [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company finding cost savings? - The company is focusing on supply chain efficiencies and reallocating resources to drive operational savings, with an expected cost of approximately €500 million over three years to achieve these savings [7][11] Question: How will the company maintain relationships while cutting costs? - The management acknowledges the importance of relationships in the industry and plans to reinvest a portion of the savings into commercial excellence and execution to strengthen these relationships [13][14] Question: What is the company's approach to marketing spend? - The company is looking at marketing spend holistically, focusing on effective allocation based on growth potential rather than adhering to a fixed budget [16][18] Question: How does the company view the structural versus cyclical debate in the industry? - The management believes that while there are cyclical elements, the moderation trend is more structural and influenced by various factors, including economic pressures [29][30] Question: What is the outlook for the U.S. consumer? - The management does not see immediate signs of improvement in the U.S. consumer environment and is cautious in its planning for the upcoming fiscal year [39][40]

Core Insights - Diageo plc reported a decline in pre-exceptional earnings per share by 8.6% year over year to 164.2 cents, primarily due to lower contributions from Moët Hennessy and adverse currency effects [1][8] - Net sales decreased by 0.1% year over year to $20.2 billion, impacted by unfavorable currency effects and adjustments from acquisitions and disposals, despite improved organic sales [2][8] Financial Performance - Organic net sales increased by 1.7% year over year, supported by a 0.9% growth in organic volume and a 0.8% improvement in price/mix [3] - The reported operating profit fell by 27.8% year over year to $4.3 billion, influenced by exceptional impairment and restructuring charges, unfavorable currency movements, and a contraction in organic operating margin [9] - Organic operating profit decreased by 0.7% year over year, with a reported operating margin contraction of 819 basis points [10] Regional Performance - Volume declined in North America and Europe due to a cautious consumer environment, while volume gains were observed in the Asia Pacific, Africa, and Latin America [4] - North America experienced positive price/mix contributions driven by tequila, particularly aged variants, while Europe saw growth from Guinness [5] Future Outlook - Diageo anticipates organic net sales for fiscal 2026 to be broadly in line with fiscal 2025, with growth expected to be weighted towards the second half of the fiscal year [13] - The company forecasts mid-single-digit growth in organic operating profit for fiscal 2026, primarily driven by cost savings under its Accelerate Program [14] - Capital expenditures are projected to be between $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion, with free cash flow expected to reach $3 billion [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is planning for a more cautious consumer environment in the US for fiscal 2026, indicating a focus on managing inventory levels and achieving normalized stock levels [10][11] - Organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 is expected to be similar to fiscal 2025, with a potential acceleration in the second half of the year [15][16] - The company anticipates a $50 million reduction in starting EBIT due to disposals, with additional impacts from the sale of Ghana and Seychelles breweries [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The spirits segment in Europe has faced pressure, but the company views this as an opportunity to better control outcomes by focusing on local markets and consumer dynamics [11][12] - The company is focusing on driving growth in key brands such as Don Julio and Guinness, despite organic sales declines [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The US market is expected to be cautious, with a stretched consumer wallet impacting sales [28][29] - The company is optimistic about the potential for growth in the Asia Pacific region, particularly in China, despite recent challenges [30][31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is reorganizing to capture growth opportunities by being more locally focused and occasion-led in various markets [12][13] - There is a clear strategy to enhance commercial execution at the point of sale, with a focus on training and upskilling resources [17][18] - The company is committed to premiumization and expanding its portfolio, particularly in the tequila segment [40][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current macroeconomic pressures but believes that moderation trends in consumer behavior present new opportunities [65][66] - The company remains confident in the long-term growth potential of the US spirits market despite short-term pressures [79][80] Other Important Information - The company is implementing changes to its currency hedging strategy to reduce volatility and align hedge targets with operating profit exposure [36][37] - The company plans to reinvest 50% of cost savings into better commercial execution and digitization efforts [70][71] Q&A Session Summary Question: US depletion outlook and inventory message - Management indicated that inventory levels have normalized and they are planning for a cautious consumer environment in the US for fiscal 2026 [10][11] Question: Investment in Europe and spirits portfolio - Management acknowledged the pressure on the spirits portfolio in Europe but sees it as an opportunity for better control and growth [11][12] Question: Organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 - Management expects organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 to be similar to fiscal 2025, with potential acceleration in the second half [15][16] Question: Impact of disposals on EBIT - Management confirmed a $50 million reduction in starting EBIT due to disposals, with additional impacts from recent sales [21][22] Question: Focus on moderation trends - Management noted that moderation trends are here to stay and the company is looking to tap into this with a broader range of products [65][66] Question: Reinvestment of cost savings - Management stated that 50% of cost savings will be reinvested into commercial execution and digitization efforts [70][71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is planning for a more cautious consumer environment in the US for fiscal 2026, indicating a focus on managing inventory levels and achieving normalized stock levels [8][9] - Organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 is expected to be similar to fiscal 2025, with a potential acceleration in the second half of the year [14][30] - The company anticipates a $50 million reduction in starting EBIT due to disposals, with additional impacts from recent sales in Ghana and Seychelles [22][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The spirits segment in Europe has faced pressure, but the company sees this as an opportunity to better control outcomes by focusing on local markets and consumer dynamics [9][10] - The company is focusing on driving growth in key brands such as Don Julio, Guinness, and Johnny Walker, despite organic sales declines [20][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The US market is expected to be cautious, with consumer wallets still stretched, impacting sales performance [28][30] - In Asia Pacific, particularly China, the market has been more challenged outside of the Chinese New Year, but the company is optimistic about future growth opportunities [29][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is reorganizing to capture growth opportunities by being more locally focused and occasion-led, particularly in Southern Europe [10][11] - There is a clear strategy to enhance commercial execution at the point of sale, with a focus on training and upskilling resources [18][47] - The company is committed to premiumization and expanding its portfolio, particularly in the tequila segment [40][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current macroeconomic pressures but believes that moderation trends in consumer behavior present new growth opportunities [62][70] - The company is focused on balancing growth across its portfolio, with an emphasis on both volume and price mix [56][59] Other Important Information - The company is actively managing its portfolio, with ongoing disposals of non-core assets while maintaining a focus on core brands [86] - There is a commitment to reinvest 50% of cost savings into better commercial execution and digitization efforts [70][71] Q&A Session Summary Question: US depletion outlook and inventory message - Management indicated that inventory levels have normalized and they are planning for a cautious consumer environment in the US for fiscal 2026 [8][9] Question: Organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 - Management expressed confidence in achieving a similar organic sales performance to fiscal 2025, with expectations for acceleration in the second half [14][30] Question: Impact of disposals on EBIT - Management confirmed a $50 million reduction in EBIT due to disposals, with additional impacts from recent sales in Ghana and Seychelles [22][30] Question: Focus on the Astral brand in the US - Management sees significant growth potential for the Astral brand in the super premium segment and is optimistic about its scaling [40][41] Question: Changes in US route to market - Management highlighted the importance of both increasing the number of salespeople and enhancing their effectiveness through training and focused execution [46][47] Question: Structural headwinds and moderation trends - Management acknowledged the ongoing moderation trend but emphasized the company's ability to innovate and adapt to consumer preferences [62][70]