Hey. Hello and welcome to a bonus episode of the Morning Filter podcast. I'm Susan Jabinsky.Now, my co-host Dave Sakara and I have gotten a lot of questions from our audience about topics you'd like to hear more about, and we hear you. So, we're doing some bonus episodes of the podcast, sitting down with various Morning Star experts to discuss topics that you want to hear more about. If you have an idea for a bonus episode, you can send it to us at our email address, which is the morning filter@ morningstar ...

Key Takeaways SAM said "beyond beer" now makes up most of its volume, making innovation central to category share gains.New products like Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea extensions are gaining traction in RTD and flavored segments.Innovation is improving mix and margins, supporting reinvestment despite soft industry volume and competition.The Boston Beer Company Inc.’s (SAM) innovation pipeline has become central to its strategy as consumer demand shifts away from traditional beer toward flavored, functional an ...

Core Thesis - Diageo plc is viewed positively by analysts due to its strong brand portfolio, strategic leadership under CEO Dave Lewis, and potential for transformation despite challenges in the alcohol industry [1][5][6] Company Overview - Diageo plc operates in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages across multiple regions including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Africa [2] - The company has over 200 globally recognized brands such as Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, and Guinness [3] Financial Performance - Revenue increased from $15.2 billion in 2017 to $20.5 billion in 2022, but has stagnated at $20.24 billion in 2025 [3] - The stock has declined approximately 37% this year and is 60% below its peak in 2022 [3] Leadership and Strategy - Dave Lewis, the new CEO, brings 27 years of experience and aims to reinvigorate Diageo through cost-cutting and focusing on core growth areas [2][3] - The company is implementing cost-saving measures and strategic capital allocation, including the sale of its 65% stake in East African Breweries Limited for about $3 billion [4] Market Challenges - The primary challenge facing Diageo is the decline in per capita alcohol consumption, particularly in spirits, as consumers are drinking less [4] - Analysts expect continued rationalization of the brand portfolio and divestment of non-core assets to improve financial health [5] Investment Outlook - Diageo is considered an attractive entry point around $85, with a nearly 5% dividend yield and strong cash flow, presenting a favorable risk/reward scenario [5] - The company’s fundamentals and valuation remain compelling despite the broader challenges in the alcohol sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The analyst has assigned a hold rating to Diageo PLC (DGEAF) in June, indicating a cautious approach until more signs of recovery in the core spirits segment are observed [1] Company Analysis - The investment strategy focuses on identifying undervalued companies with long-term growth potential, emphasizing a blend of value investing principles and long-term growth [1] - The approach involves purchasing quality companies at a discount to their intrinsic value and holding them to allow for compounding of earnings and shareholder returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analyst has assigned a hold rating to Diageo PLC (DGEAF) in June, indicating a desire for more signs of recovery in the core spirits segment before making further investment decisions [1]. Company Analysis - The investment approach focuses on identifying undervalued companies with long-term growth potential, emphasizing a blend of value investing principles and long-term growth [1]. - The strategy involves purchasing quality companies at a discount to their intrinsic value and holding them to allow for compounding of earnings and shareholder returns [1].

Core Viewpoint - Asahi Group Holdings is acquiring Diageo's business in Kenya for $2.3 billion, which includes a 65% stake in East African Breweries and a 53.7% shareholding in UDVK, marking Asahi's first asset acquisition in the region [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition includes Diageo's majority stake in East African Breweries, which markets popular beer brands such as Tusker and Serengeti Lager [1] - Asahi aims to establish a foundation for medium- to long-term growth in Kenya and the East African market, driven by population growth and economic expansion [2] - Diageo has previously engaged in asset disposals in Africa, including the sale of its stake in Guinness Ghana Breweries for $81 million [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Implications - Diageo will enter into long-term licensing agreements and transitional service agreements with EABL, allowing EABL to produce Diageo's spirits brands under license [4] - The transaction is expected to deliver significant value for Diageo shareholders and strengthen its balance sheet, with a focus on maintaining a target leverage ratio of 2.5 to three times [6] - Asahi plans to maintain EABL's listing status and will not increase its stake beyond 65% [6] Group 3: Management Perspectives - Diageo's interim CEO indicated that the company could make substantial changes to its product portfolio through further asset disposals [5] - Asahi's CEO highlighted the high-quality nature of the acquired business, emphasizing its strong market position and commitment to sustainable growth and local economic development [7]

Group 1 - Diageo has agreed to sell its 65% stake in East African Breweries to Asahi Holdings for $2.3 billion [1]

Company Operations - Diageo's new Guinness attraction in London has opened [1] - The opening was delayed by two years [1] - The opening coincides with Dave Lewis becoming the new CEO [1]

Core Viewpoint - Workers at Diageo's Belfast production plant have voted to strike due to an "inadequate pay offer," but Diageo asserts that there will be no shortages of Guinness during the Christmas period [1][3]. Group 1: Strike Details - Approximately 90 workers are set to walk out for eight days starting December 5, in response to pay concerns [1]. - Unite claims that the Belfast facility is the world's largest producer of Guinness Zero, suggesting that the strike will significantly disrupt production [3]. - Diageo has stated that it has contingency plans to manage any potential impact on production and supply [3]. Group 2: Company Position - Diageo emphasizes that there will be no disruption to the supply of Guinness or Guinness 0.0 during the Christmas period [3]. - The company expressed disappointment over the strike ballot outcome but believes continued engagement is essential for a resolution [5]. - Diageo did not provide specific details regarding the negotiations or the demands from Unite [5]. Group 3: Union's Perspective - Unite's general secretary criticized Diageo for prioritizing profits over fair worker compensation, stating that the company can afford to make a decent pay offer [4]. - The union has not clarified its demands or whether further negotiations are planned before the strike [4]. - Regional officer Michael Keenan urged Diageo management to return to negotiations with a more acceptable pay offer [6].

Core Insights - Sin stocks represent companies in controversial industries such as alcohol, tobacco, gambling, and cannabis, which have historically provided high returns due to stable demand even during economic downturns [2][5] - The consistent consumer behavior towards sin products leads to reliable cash flows and resilient business models, making these stocks attractive to investors [3][5] - Sin stocks often trade at attractive valuations due to reduced competition from institutional investors who avoid these sectors for ethical reasons [3][6] Industry Overview - Sin stocks benefit from inelastic demand, allowing companies to maintain profitability through pricing power and brand loyalty [5][8] - Regulatory barriers create a protective moat for established players, reducing the threat of new entrants and enhancing market stability [8][9] - Trends in the sin stock sectors include premiumization in alcohol, transformation towards reduced-risk products in tobacco, and rapid expansion in the cannabis market [10][11][12] Company Highlights - Philip Morris International is transitioning towards reduced-risk products like IQOS and ZYN, capitalizing on strong pricing power and expanding its smoke-free portfolio [7] - Diageo Plc leverages regulatory protections and strong brand loyalty to generate consistent cash flows, with a focus on premium alcoholic beverages [9] - Turning Point Brands is focusing on modern oral products and expanding its production capabilities, positioning itself for long-term growth [15] - Las Vegas Sands is enhancing its integrated resort offerings in Asia, supported by strong cash generation and disciplined capital deployment [18] - Universal Corporation is diversifying beyond leaf tobacco into adjacent ingredients, emphasizing cost control and supply-chain reliability for steady growth [20]