Workflow
compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
icon
Search documents
This AI Stock Could Soar 47% in 2026, According to 1 Wall Street Analyst (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)
The Motley Foolยท 2025-12-21 08:25
Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is optimistic about Nvidia's stock performance, with a significant price increase and a high consensus price target, while Onsemi is also highlighted as a potential growth stock, albeit with mixed analyst opinions [1][5][11]. Company Analysis: Nvidia - Nvidia's share price has increased by approximately 30% this year, with 60 out of 64 analysts rating it as a "buy" or "strong buy" [1]. - The consensus 12-month price target for Nvidia reflects a potential upside of 44% [1]. Company Analysis: ON Semiconductor (Onsemi) - Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis raised Onsemi's price target from $68 to $80, indicating a 47% increase from its share price at the market close on December 18, 2025 [3]. - Onsemi's current market capitalization is $22 billion, with a gross margin of 35.06% [5]. - The average price target for Onsemi suggests a modest upside of only 9%, with fewer than half of analysts rating it as a "buy" or "strong buy" [5][6]. Market Potential - Onsemi's total addressable market is estimated at $44 billion, expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 18% [8]. - The company is focusing on new vertical gallium nitride (vGaN) power semiconductors, which can reduce energy loss by up to 50%, making them attractive for AI data centers [9]. Growth Drivers - Onsemi's recent acquisition of Aura Semiconductor's Vcore power technologies is expected to enhance its offerings for next-generation AI data centers [10]. - Management projects a revenue growth of 10% to 12% CAGR by 2027, which is three times the growth rate of the semiconductor industry [11]. Challenges - Onsemi's Q3 revenue fell by 12% year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share decreased by 32% [11]. - The slowdown in U.S. electric vehicle (EV) adoption poses a risk to Onsemi's growth in the EV segment, influenced by regulatory changes [12]. Valuation - Onsemi's shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5, which may not be low enough to attract significant investor interest [13].