We discuss ideas like this as they happen in more detail. All active investors are welcome to join on a free trial and ask any question in our chat room full of sophisticated traders and investors.Recently, we have been both investing in and writing articles about CEF preferred stocks. We are turning our attention to credit risk and are willing to bet that long-term yields may finally move lower amid global uncertainty. ItArbitrage Trader, aka Denislav Iliev has been day trading for 15+ years and leads a te ...

Group 1 - The Business Development Companies (BDCs) sector has started the year positively, yet it remains undervalued due to ongoing concerns about falling interest rates and credit risks [1] - The current valuation territory for BDCs is described as depressed, indicating potential investment opportunities despite the positive start to the year [1] Group 2 - Roberts Berzins has over a decade of experience in financial management, focusing on shaping financial strategies for top-tier corporates and executing large-scale financings [1] - Berzins has contributed to institutionalizing the REIT framework in Latvia, aimed at enhancing liquidity in pan-Baltic capital markets [1] - His policy-level work includes developing national SOE financing guidelines and frameworks to channel private capital into affordable housing [1]

Goldman Sachs raised the firm’s price target on American Express (AXP) to $420 from $400 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Regional banks underperformed the market by 200-300 basis points in 2025, weighed by macro concerns and credit worries, though stocks rallied 13% late in the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Looking to 2026, solid loan growth, net interest income momentum, positive operating leverage, and improving returns support continued multi-year fundamental improvement, w ...

Vantage Score Overview - Vantage Score is a leading national credit score established approximately 20 years ago by Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion [2] - Over 220 million people use Vantage Score to check their credit score [3] - Vantage Score utilizes alternative data like rental payment history, giving credit to consumers who pay rent on time, unlike some competitors [3] K-Shaped Economy Impact - The dominant theme is the K-shaped economy, with higher and middle-income consumers continuing to shop while lower-income consumers are not shopping as much [5] - Higher and middle-income consumers' late payments have dropped in three of the last four months, while lower-income consumers' delinquencies have increased [7] - Homeownership is a significant driver of the K-shape, as homeowners have more of a cushion and are not as exposed to rising rent [8] Consumer Sentiment and Credit Health - The average Vantage Score was 701 through the end of October, indicating overall healthy credit for the average consumer [12] - However, this average masks the divergence between high and low-income consumers, with many lower-income consumers facing challenges [13] - Lowering interest rates and a resurgent housing market could help lower-income consumers [14] Future Outlook - Vantage Score aims to expand homeownership opportunities to millions more consumers [9] - Retail and consumer spending make up two-thirds of the US economy, and home purchases tend to stimulate spending in other areas [10]

Stablecoin Risks - The industry expresses significant concern regarding stablecoins from non-bank operators [1] - Key considerations include the location of reserves, duration risk, credit risk, and bankruptcy remoteness of those reserves [1] Risk Mitigation - SoFi aims for zero credit risk and zero liquidity risk, and is working on bankruptcy remoteness for its stablecoin [2] - Dollar-for-dollar backing does not guarantee the availability of those dollars upon liquidation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current credit issues in regional banks should not be overlooked, as they significantly impact bank returns and are indicative of broader economic trends [1] Group 1: Consumer Market and Credit Quality - The lower end of the consumer market is experiencing stress, with rising delinquencies in car loans among lower credit quality consumers [2] - Higher net worth institutions like JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo are not facing the same level of stress due to their customer base [2] - High yield spreads are at historically tight levels, raising concerns about the compensation for lending to lower quality companies [2] Group 2: Private Debt Concerns - The issuance of zero coupon bonds indicates a lack of cash flow to service debt, raising alarms about the financial health of companies [3] - New private debt categories lack the covenant protections that traditional bank debt offers, increasing risk exposure [4][6] - The rapid growth of private credit products, which are less secured and lack covenants, poses a significant risk to the financial system [6] Group 3: Economic and Market Conditions - The Hispanic community's reduced spending due to safety concerns is impacting the economy, highlighting pockets of credit weakness [7] - The current high valuations in public markets, driven by strong companies, could be affected if market sentiment deteriorates [9][10] - The focus of major banks on high net worth individuals rather than lower-end consumers suggests limited exposure to credit issues in the stock market [11] Group 4: Broader Economic Concerns - Inflation, tariffs, and deficits are identified as significant concerns for the economy, overshadowing the current state of credit markets [11][12] - Despite the challenges in private credit, the overall credit markets are perceived to be in relatively good shape, although risks remain due to inadequate compensation for the associated risks [12]