Group 1 - Apollo is currently 15% off year to date, with expectations to grow earnings and revenue by almost 20% in 2026 [1] - FTA has experienced a strong performance, and as interest rates decrease, their lending spreads are expected to increase, potentially pushing the stock above 200 [1] - There is a positive outlook for materials linked to lower interest rates, driven by cyclical impulses and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2 - There is a perceived opportunity in sectors related to precious metals, with a soft affirmation of gold prices [2] - Uber has reached a new all-time high, approaching 100 dollars, indicating strong market performance [2]

The oil market is flatlining. After months of uncertainty sparked by global geopolitical tensions and President Trump’s tariff proposals, crude traders have increasingly retreated to the sidelines. https://t.co/wAJgK90Mba ...

Market Trends & Geopolitical Risks - Investors are closely monitoring Iran and Israel's trading strikes, alongside the Federal Reserve's meeting [1] - Markets appear inclined to shrug off risks related to geopolitical or trade tensions [2] - There's no shortage of a bid from the international community [9][10] Interest Rates & Debt Market - Volatility in rates is a significant concern [2] - US debt level is a frequent topic of discussion on Wall Street [1] - Credit markets have been exceptionally resilient, with both high yield and investment grade retracing losses [3] - Credit market activity is incredibly resilient, potentially leading to a record first half, absent the Covid acceleration of debt [4] Inflation & Economic Growth - Increased inflation is expected to be a focus in the Fed's projections and press release, with a potential downgrade of growth and one rate cut pushed into next year [13] - Tariffs are expected to increase inflation, with businesses potentially passing through about 50% of tariff costs to consumers [17] - The Fed may adopt a more hawkish bias than the market anticipates, potentially pushing one rate cut into next year [20][21] Fed Policy - The Fed is in a position to wait for more data, given strong labor markets and favorable inflation numbers [10] - The Fed aims to temper expectations of a "Fed put," viewing the inflationary impact as a one-off event that will be resolved by the fall of 2026 [19]

Geopolitical Impact on Markets - Research indicates that since 1950, the S&P 500 has historically declined by approximately 4% within 15 days following significant geopolitical shocks, but tends to recover this loss within about a month [2] - Markets have become more resilient to geopolitical tensions over time, with dips becoming shallower, as these tensions are typically contained in nine out of ten instances [3] Market Performance and Trends - International markets have shown strong performance this year, significantly influenced by the dollar [5] - Emerging markets are up double digits in dollar terms this year, indicating a catch-up trade where the US market had previously dominated [9] - Latin American stocks have been the best performing globally this year, driven by more politically friendly leaders [11] Investor Behavior - Retail investors have been notably smart, buying during market dips, outperforming hedge funds [7] - Capital is beginning to diversify away from the US after 15 years of concentration [12] Economic Factors - The US economy has been relatively resilient this year [8] - Various countries are implementing economic reforms, stimulus measures, and interest rate cuts in response to tariffs and other headwinds [10]