Trade Relations - The US is considering "substantially raising" tariffs on Indian exports [1] Geopolitics - The tariff increase is in response to New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil [1]

The oil market is flatlining. After months of uncertainty sparked by global geopolitical tensions and President Trump’s tariff proposals, crude traders have increasingly retreated to the sidelines. https://t.co/wAJgK90Mba ...

Demand Outlook - Global crude oil demand is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter due to shifting seasonality [1] - The oil market faces a negative outlook as winter approaches [1]

Geopolitical Risk Assessment - The US public desires a swift resolution to the conflict, similar to the Trump administration's approach [1] - There's a perception, supported by some evidence, that Iran is risk-averse in its actions [1] - Iran's capacity to significantly harm Israel or the US is considered limited [1] Oil Market Impact - The market is closely monitoring oil-related developments [1] - Iran's oil export capabilities remain largely unaffected by the US or Israel [2] - As long as Iran's oil exports are not targeted, a severe disruption of the Straits of Hormuz is deemed unlikely, preventing a significant oil price surge [2]

Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices initially spiked following US strikes on Iran but later decreased [1] - US oil production direction is likely flat to down, despite potential incentives from higher oil prices [3] - Easing permitting processes in areas like Alaska could incentivize more drilling [6] - OPEC is adding 400,000 barrels a day, increasing global oil supply [7] Geopolitical Risks & Shipping - The Strait of Hormuz has never been closed, even during the Gulf War [8][9] - Increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz has led to shipping day rates rising from $24,000 to $100,000 per day [10] - Almost all exported Iranian oil is bought by China [11] - Potential disruptions could occur at Bab el Mandeb strait and the Suez Canal, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz [13] Iranian Oil & Sanctions - Iran exports 15 million barrels of oil a day, despite sanctions [15] - Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be economic suicide for Iran, as 90% of its oil is exported from Kharg Island [14]

Joining us now is Seni research president and of course lead analyst uh Paul Sanki. Good to have you here at Post9. Uh Paul so you know what is your overall I assume you're getting a lot of questions got any answers for us in terms of what this all going to mean for the commodities you follow.I think the most interesting thing is the speed of the move here that we've seen in oil is actually as fast as we saw during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So, if you look at when I was last on May the 5th, talking b ...