On today’s Big Take podcast: @alexlongley1 @JavierBlas explain why, despite global conflicts involving oil producers, oil prices are down and could fall even further https://t.co/3mv7kuBcBN https://t.co/Cw9tPHMjHG ...

On today’s Big Take podcast: @alexlongley1and @JavierBlas explain why, despite global conflicts involving oil producers, oil prices are down and could fall even further. https://t.co/iUekoZBZFc ...

Market Analysis - Fracking 的出现使得全球石油价格变得低廉 [1] - 以黄金计价，石油价格远低于 20 世纪中叶以来的水平 [1] - 发达国家的重要商品（住房、医疗、教育、食品）价格显著上涨 [1]

Trade Relations - The US is considering "substantially raising" tariffs on Indian exports [1] Geopolitics - The tariff increase is in response to New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil [1]

Market Trends - The oil market is experiencing stagnation [1] - Crude oil traders are retreating due to global geopolitical tensions and tariff proposals [1]

Demand Outlook - Global crude oil demand is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter due to shifting seasonality [1] - The oil market faces a negative outlook as winter approaches [1]

Geopolitical Risk Assessment - The US public desires a swift resolution to the conflict, similar to the Trump administration's approach [1] - There's a perception, supported by some evidence, that Iran is risk-averse in its actions [1] - Iran's capacity to significantly harm Israel or the US is considered limited [1] Oil Market Impact - The market is closely monitoring oil-related developments [1] - Iran's oil export capabilities remain largely unaffected by the US or Israel [2] - As long as Iran's oil exports are not targeted, a severe disruption of the Straits of Hormuz is deemed unlikely, preventing a significant oil price surge [2]

Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices initially spiked following US strikes on Iran but later decreased [1] - US oil production direction is likely flat to down, despite potential incentives from higher oil prices [3] - Easing permitting processes in areas like Alaska could incentivize more drilling [6] - OPEC is adding 400,000 barrels a day, increasing global oil supply [7] Geopolitical Risks & Shipping - The Strait of Hormuz has never been closed, even during the Gulf War [8][9] - Increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz has led to shipping day rates rising from $24,000 to $100,000 per day [10] - Almost all exported Iranian oil is bought by China [11] - Potential disruptions could occur at Bab el Mandeb strait and the Suez Canal, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz [13] Iranian Oil & Sanctions - Iran exports 15 million barrels of oil a day, despite sanctions [15] - Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be economic suicide for Iran, as 90% of its oil is exported from Kharg Island [14]

Oil Market Dynamics - The recent surge in oil prices mirrors the speed observed during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a 25% increase since May 5th [2] - Market is pricing in real fear about spare capacity, driving aggressive price moves [6] - Global oil market is tightening towards less spare capacity [7] - OPEC increase announcements are being taken bullishly, reducing Saudi and others' spare capacity [8] Spare Capacity & Geopolitical Risk - SPR drawdown limits its availability as an option [4] - Saudi Arabia and UAE possess significant spare capacity, estimated at 2 million and 1 million barrels respectively [5] - Additional spare capacity from Kuwait, Iran, and Iraq could amount to another 1 million barrels [5] - Potential Iranian attacks on Saudi facilities pose a risk of further price spikes [14] - Strait of Hormuz closure would trigger a major crisis [16] Production & Capex - Producers proactively cut capex early, with Saudi Arabia reducing rigs [11] - US production might drop year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic [12] - Saudi Arabia is preparing for downside by lowering their own capex [14] Sanctions & Geopolitics - Significant amounts of oil, about 1 million barrels a day, are going to China via Car Island [9] - The administration may be turning a blind eye to sanctions enforcement to maintain lower oil prices [9]