Summary of Meituan (3690.HK) 3Q25E Preview and Business Updates Company Overview - **Company**: Meituan (3690.HK) - **Industry**: Food delivery and on-demand services Key Financial Estimates - **3Q25 Revenue Forecast**: Rmb97.25 billion, representing a 3.9% year-over-year increase [3][56] - **Adjusted Net Profit (NP)**: Forecasted at -Rmb16.3 billion, compared to Bloomberg consensus of -Rmb12.3 billion [3][56] - **Core Loss Adjustments**: - CLC (Core Local Commerce) loss revised to Rmb15 billion from Rmb9.7 billion [2][57] - Food delivery loss revised to Rmb19.2 billion from Rmb14.1 billion [2][57] - On-demand delivery operational loss forecasted at Rmb20 billion [57] - **4Q25 Revenue Outlook**: Expected to be Rmb92.4 billion, a 4.4% year-over-year increase [4] - **Target Price Adjustment**: Revised to HK$117 from HK$133, maintaining a Neutral/High Risk rating [7] Business Performance Insights - **Operational Losses**: - Total operational loss for 3Q25 is forecasted at Rmb17.3 billion [1][57] - Losses from new initiatives expected to be Rmb2.37 billion [1][57] - **Market Competition**: Intense competition in food delivery is leading to high operational losses, with expectations of continued high losses into 4Q25 [1][58] Business Updates and Initiatives - **Keeta Expansion**: - Keeta is set to launch operations in Brazil on October 30, with plans to expand into 15 metro regions by June 2026 [30][31] - Keeta has recently entered the UAE market, marking its third Middle Eastern food delivery market [27][28] - **New Product Launches**: - Launch of brand flagship InstaMart for 30-minute delivery of brand products in tier-1 cities [20][21] - Expansion of Happy Monkey supermarkets, with the first store opening in Beijing on October 24 [49] - **AI Product Development**: - Introduction of LongCat AI products aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and customer engagement [50][51][52] User Engagement and Traffic - **User Metrics**: - Monthly Active Users (MAU) for Meituan reached 524 million in August 2025, a 9% year-over-year increase [38] - Daily Active Users (DAU) also saw growth, reaching 185.2 million [38] - **Meituan Waimai Performance**: - MAU for Meituan Waimai was 61.4 million, down 7% year-over-year, while Eleme's MAU was 104.7 million, up 11% year-over-year [40][41] Consumer Trends - **Holiday Consumption Trends**: - Significant increase in consumer spending during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with cross-city orders up 47% year-over-year [48] - Notable growth in sales of mobile phones, digital products, and gifting items during the holiday period [48] Conclusion - Meituan is navigating a challenging competitive landscape with significant operational losses expected in the near term. However, the company is actively expanding its service offerings and geographic reach, particularly through Keeta's international expansion and new product launches. User engagement metrics indicate a solid user base, although competition remains fierce in the food delivery sector.