We came across a bullish thesis on Moderna, Inc. on Alpha Talon Investment Research’s Substack by AT Investment Research. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MRNA. Moderna, Inc.'s share was trading at $29.92 as of December 15th. MRNA’s trailing P/E was 7.06 according to Yahoo Finance. Is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) One of the Best Biotech Stocks to Buy According to Wall Street Analysts? Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United St ...

Core Insights - Moderna's stock has experienced a five-day winning streak, resulting in a total gain of 13% and an increase in market capitalization by approximately $1.2 billion, bringing it to around $10 billion [1][3] - Despite the recent gains, the stock remains 35.8% lower than its value at the end of 2024, while the S&P 500 has year-to-date returns of 16.5% [1][3] Financial Performance - The recent performance surge was driven by a Q3 earnings beat, with an EPS of -$0.51, which significantly surpassed forecasts, indicating improved cost management and operational efficiency [3] - Moderna has reduced its 2025 operating expense outlook by $700 million, reflecting tighter financial discipline and enhanced long-term profitability potential [3] Market Sentiment - The momentum from the winning streak may indicate increasing investor confidence, potentially leading to follow-on purchases [4] - However, there are concerns regarding Moderna's overall weak operating performance and financial state, which may not be fully reflected in its moderate valuation [5] Company Overview - Moderna specializes in mRNA-based therapies and vaccines targeting infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare conditions, cardiovascular issues, and autoimmune diseases, with a portfolio of 44 programs, including 26 clinical trials across seven modalities [6]

Core Insights - Moderna's annual sales from its COVID-19 vaccine have significantly declined from over $18 billion, leading to a drop in revenue, earnings, and stock price [1] - The company aims to demonstrate that its success is sustainable, with potential for substantial stock-market returns in the next five years [1] Group 1: Clinical Progress and Pipeline - Moderna's mRNA platform enables faster vaccine development compared to traditional methods, bolstered by increased R&D spending from COVID vaccine profits [3] - Recent clinical and regulatory achievements include the approval of the RSV vaccine, mResvia [4] - The company is focusing on mRNA-4157, a personalized cancer vaccine, which has shown promising results in mid-stage studies for melanoma when combined with Merck's Keytruda [5] - mRNA-4157 is currently in phase 3 trials and is being tested for various cancers, indicating potential for significant future success [6] Group 2: Market Outlook - Despite recent challenges, Moderna's pipeline could lead to improved financial results and stock performance, suggesting that patient investors may see gains in the future [7] - The stock has underperformed due to lackluster financial results, but advancements in the pipeline could enhance its value over the next five years [9]

Core Insights - Pfizer and Moderna were the two leading companies in developing effective coronavirus vaccines, achieving significant financial success during the pandemic [1] - Both companies have experienced a substantial decline in revenue and share prices as the pandemic has receded, raising questions about their future performance [2] Pfizer - Pfizer has made strategic moves, including the approval of new medicines and vaccines, and a significant acquisition of Seagen for $43 billion, enhancing its oncology pipeline [3] - In 2024, Pfizer reported a revenue of $63.6 billion, a 7% increase from the previous year, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.11, reflecting a 69% year-over-year growth [4] - The company continues to generate sales from its COVID-19 products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, which contributed approximately $11.1 billion in sales in 2024 [4] - Pfizer is expected to navigate upcoming patent cliffs successfully, supported by its ongoing product approvals and a strong dividend yield of 6.8%, with a 53.6% increase in payouts over the past decade [5][6] Moderna - Moderna's total revenue in 2024 fell nearly 53% year-over-year to $3.2 billion, with a net loss per share of $9.28, although this was an improvement from the previous year's loss [7] - The company has received approval for an RSV vaccine and is awaiting further label expansions, indicating potential growth opportunities [8] - Moderna's combination COVID/influenza vaccine showed promising results in a phase 3 study, and the company is pursuing multiple late-stage studies for innovative products, including a personalized cancer vaccine [9][10] - The mRNA platform has demonstrated success, and if Moderna continues to achieve positive clinical results and regulatory approvals, its financial performance may improve [10] Comparative Analysis - Pfizer is characterized as a well-established pharmaceutical giant with consistent revenue from a diverse product portfolio, while Moderna is a smaller biotech company with fewer profitable products [11] - Pfizer outperforms Moderna in key financial metrics such as total sales, profits, and free cash flow, and it also offers dividends, making it attractive for income-seeking investors [12] - While Pfizer is viewed as the better investment option for most investors, Moderna may present higher upside potential for those willing to accept greater risk and volatility [13]