Tom Lee, Fundstrat, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk Bitcoin prices bouncing back. ...

Market Uncertainty & Risks - The financial market faces danger due to potential government shutdown and missing economic data, specifically the delay of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases [1] - The absence of NFP and CPI data leaves the Federal Reserve (FED) without critical indicators before the October 28–29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, potentially leading to guesswork in monetary policy [1] - The market needs clarity, but the FED operating blind will cause more confusion and uncertainty [1] - The expiration of September 30's quarterly options could remove a stabilizer that has protected the market from downside shocks [1] - The vanishing options cushion may allow volatility to explode [1] - Reduced liquidity combined with the FED operating blind and structural hedges disappearing could lead to massive market uncertainty [1] - Credit spreads, funding markets, and equity volatility could all reprice violently if shutdown headlines collide with the thin market structure [1]

Global Economic Outlook - The US is behaving like a developing nation, exhibiting core market correlations more common in developing countries, such as currency weakening despite rising yields and the breakdown of negative correlations between bonds and equities [4] - The market initially had an 80% probability of a "Reagan moment" but fluctuated to below 50% by early April, and is now around 70%, indicating uncertainty about whether the US will experience a positive transformation or stagflation and recession [6] - There's a 50/50 chance of either "globalization light" or total fragmentation, with the outcome depending on how other countries react [6] Market and Corporate Reactions - The market views US corporations as strong with good balance sheets and innovations, and believes the US is escalating trade tensions to de-escalate, expecting either deadline extensions or favorable outcomes from negotiations by August 1st [8][9] - CEOs are generally in a "wait and see" mode, postponing major investment plans due to uncertainty about tariffs (e g, whether they will be 30% or 10%, volatile or fixed), impacting supply chains and market strategies [11][12] - Financial markets have adapted to the idea that deadlines will be pushed back, but the ultimate destination of trade policies remains unknown [14][15] Trade and Geopolitical Risks - Mexico was surprised by the potential 30% tariff, indicating that countries not currently in focus could quickly become targets [20] - China is not out of the woods regarding tariff issues and is no longer a locomotive of global growth, with concerns that it may start dumping exports, especially on the European Union, causing trade tensions [21][22] - The EU is preparing a response to US tariff threats and may seek alliances with other countries [23] Investment Strategies - European financial markets have outperformed US markets in the first quarter by 17 percentage points, benefiting from an excessive overweighting of US assets at the start of the year [26] - For Europe to continue outperforming, it needs to attract capital back, which it hasn't been doing sufficiently [27] - Companies are considering "C plus many" or "many" strategies for supply chains, reducing reliance on China and increasing resilience, which involves rewiring supply chains and is time-consuming and expensive [18]