Summary of Nordea Bank's Q3 2025 Pre-Close Call Company Overview - **Company**: Nordea Bank - **Event**: Q3 2025 Pre-Close Call - **Date of Report Release**: October 16, 2025 - **Silent Period Start**: October 7, 2025 Key Points Macro Environment - **Interest Rates**: Norway and Sweden cut policy rates by 25 basis points in September, leading to a quarter-on-quarter decrease of approximately 25 basis points in average Nordic policy rates for Q3, similar to Q2's decrease of around 30 basis points [3][5] - **Interbank Rates**: Average quarter-to-date decreases were 30 basis points for Norway, 17 basis points for Sweden, and 10 basis points for Denmark and Finland [3] - **Equity Markets**: The U.S. dollar-denominated MSCI World Index increased by 11% quarter-on-quarter, while the OMX 40 Nordic Index decreased by 1% [3] - **Fixed Income**: The U.S. dollar-denominated Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index rose by 2% [3] Financial Performance - **Net Interest Income (NII)**: Reported NII for Q2 was €1,798 million, with expectations of lower NII in Q3 due to pressure on lending margins and a negative impact from deposit rates bottoming out [4][5] - **FX Impact**: The average FX presented a headwind for euro-denominated income in Q3, with SEK down 1.5% and NOK down 1% quarter-on-quarter [4] - **Net Fee and Commission Income**: Q2 reported €792 million, with Q3 expected to be impacted by seasonality and market quietness, particularly in brokerage and advisory services [9][10] - **Net Insurance Result**: Q2 net insurance result was €58 million, up from €54 million in Q1 [10] Cost Management - **Cost Growth**: Year-on-year cost growth is expected to slow significantly, with full-year costs projected to grow by no more than 2% to 2.5%, excluding FX effects [12] - **Credit Losses**: Normalized loan loss level is 10 basis points, with a management judgment buffer of €341 million [12] Capital and Dividends - **CET1 Ratio**: CET1 requirements stood at 13.7% at the end of Q2, with a CET1 ratio of 15.6% [13] - **Dividend Policy**: The company aims to pay out 60% to 70% of annual profits in dividends, with discussions around interim dividends being hypothetical at this stage [17][18] Other Notable Points - **AT1 Issuances**: Recent AT1 issuances in USD, SEK, and NOK are expected to create a headwind of approximately €20 million, offsetting some positive effects [6][21] - **Market Activity**: M&A activity is down by 40% and ECM by 50% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a continued slow market environment [10][35] - **Capital Markets Day**: Scheduled for November 5, 2025, with potential updates on financial targets expected [30][31] Conclusion - The call highlighted the challenges faced by Nordea Bank in a mixed macroeconomic environment, with interest rate cuts impacting NII and market activity remaining subdued. The focus on cost management and maintaining a stable dividend policy reflects the bank's strategy to navigate these challenges while preparing for future growth opportunities.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.11 and net income of $1.8 billion, reflecting a year-over-year EPS growth of approximately 13% [4][14] - Total fee revenue grew by 4.6% year-over-year, driven by broad-based strength across various businesses [4][21] - The return on tangible common equity was 18%, and the return on average assets improved to 1.08% [5][15] - The efficiency ratio improved to the high 50s, indicating better expense management [5][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fee income now represents approximately 42% of total net revenue, with significant growth in payment services [6][10] - The capital markets business is focusing on new product capabilities, contributing to growth in commercial and industrial (C&I) loans [8][9] - Merchant payment services revenue grew 4.4% year-over-year, supported by a tech-led strategy [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company divested approximately $6 billion in mortgage and auto loans to strategically reposition its balance sheet [13] - Average loans totaled $379 billion, with a decrease of 0.1% linked quarter, impacted by the sale of residential mortgages and auto loans [17][18] - The investment securities portfolio increased to $174 billion, reflecting a strategic shift in asset allocation [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three key priorities: expense discipline, organic growth, and transformation of the payments business [27] - There is an intentional evolution towards a more fee-intensive business model, with a focus on multi-service clients [26][27] - The company aims to achieve a net interest margin (NIM) of 3% in the medium term, supported by strategic actions and loan growth [33][80] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to navigate the current higher interest rate environment and expects sequential net interest income growth in the upcoming quarters [31][32] - The company anticipates continued growth in C&I and credit card portfolios, with strong pipelines [32][88] - Management acknowledged the competitive deposit environment but remains optimistic about the trajectory of net interest income [74][78] Other Important Information - The company reported a modest reserve release of $53 million, reflecting favorable loan portfolio sales [15][22] - The CET1 capital ratio was 10.7%, indicating strong capital levels above regulatory minimums [22][23] - The company is preparing for potential regulatory changes regarding stablecoins, although immediate revenue impact is not anticipated [116] Q&A Session Summary Question: NII dynamics and margin outlook - Management indicated that part of the NIM decline was transitory and expects sequential growth in NII in the upcoming quarters [31][32] Question: Expense management and operating leverage - Management reassured that expense management does not hinder necessary investments and highlighted ongoing investments in technology and productivity [36][39] Question: C&I loan growth drivers - Management noted strong growth in C&I loans, driven by various sectors including healthcare and small businesses [62][63] Question: RWA increase and deposit competition - Management explained the increase in RWA was due to credit risk transfers and commercial loan growth, while deposit competition remains a consistent challenge [72][74] Question: Future loan growth outlook - Management expressed optimism about loan growth, particularly in C&I and credit card segments, indicating better growth opportunities than earlier in the year [88] Question: Fee revenue growth expectations - Management remains confident in mid-single-digit growth for overall fees and payments businesses [95]