Welcome back to Squat Fox. Five things to know ahead of the opening bell. Fizer winning a bidding war for the obesity drug developer Metsera.Now Metser is accepting a sween offer from Fizer late Friday citing US antitrust risks from another bid by Novo Nordisk. Meanwhile, shares of Dagio, they're higher. The company has appointed the former CEO of UK grosser giant Tesco as its new CEO.Dave Lewis is going to be taking over at the start of 2026. and UPS and FedEx grounding their combined fleet now of more tha ...

Clinical Trial Results & Market Reaction - Eli Lilly's experimental pill Orphon showed an 11% weight loss in patients during a late-stage clinical study [1] - Despite the positive results, Eli Lilly's shares fell, as Wall Street anticipated better performance in line with injectable weight loss drugs [1] - Novo Nordisk's Wegovy showed up to 15% weight loss in trials [2] - Eli Lilly's Zepbound had even better weight loss results than Wegovy [2] Market Potential & Challenges - Analysts forecast the weight loss market to grow to $95 billion by 2030 [3] - Pills are considered key to reaching a broader patient base in the weight loss market [3] - Developing effective weight loss pills has been challenging, with Pfizer and AstraZeneca facing setbacks [3] Future Plans - Eli Lilly plans to submit Orphon's findings for approval by the end of the year [4] - If approved, Orphon could be available in pharmacies as early as 2026 [4]

Obesity Drug Market & Competition - Amgen's once-monthly weight loss shot, Maritide, showed patients without type 2 diabetes losing an average of 20% of their body weight after one year, but with a high rate of side effects and discontinuations [1] - Eli Lilly appears to be leading the obesity drug race with a safe oral candidate and an injectable (amalin) that provides weight loss with less muscle mass loss [2] - Novo Nordisk is facing challenges with disappointing Kaggarma data, while Eli Lilly is presenting positive results [2] - Novo Nordisk currently holds 33% of the market share, but Eli Lilly's oral data looks promising [4] - The market may not be seeking a 25% weight loss if other options offer around 22% [5] Amgen's Valuation & Pharma Sector - Amgen's stock dropped almost 6% after disappointing results for its weight loss shot [1] - Amgen is trading at approximately 12-13 times next year's numbers, which may not be considered cheap given the current pharma multiples and revenue cliffs [7][8] - The average pharma multiple is around 10 [7] - Over 50% of revenue for companies like Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb will disappear by the end of the decade [8] Biotech & M&A - Biotech has had a decent run, with potential catalysts for M&A activity [9] - Despite potential asset quality concerns, increased M&A activity is expected in the biotech sector due to revenue degradation at the pharma level [11] - Big Pharma companies need to pursue M&A, with Pfizer, having spent $60 billion since the pandemic, actively seeking more assets, potentially in the obesity area [12]