Falling oil prices may drive benchmark Treasury yields back to levels last seen more than a year ago, according to Wall Street research veteran Ed Yardeni https://t.co/oseFV8cySR ...

An uptick in oil prices helped boost stocks in the energy sector on Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025, while enthusiasm waned around a potential media deal. https://t.co/B0uN6HeAIq ...

Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices initially spiked following US strikes on Iran but later decreased [1] - US oil production direction is likely flat to down, despite potential incentives from higher oil prices [3] - Easing permitting processes in areas like Alaska could incentivize more drilling [6] - OPEC is adding 400,000 barrels a day, increasing global oil supply [7] Geopolitical Risks & Shipping - The Strait of Hormuz has never been closed, even during the Gulf War [8][9] - Increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz has led to shipping day rates rising from $24,000 to $100,000 per day [10] - Almost all exported Iranian oil is bought by China [11] - Potential disruptions could occur at Bab el Mandeb strait and the Suez Canal, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz [13] Iranian Oil & Sanctions - Iran exports 15 million barrels of oil a day, despite sanctions [15] - Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be economic suicide for Iran, as 90% of its oil is exported from Kharg Island [14]

Well, let's dig into all of this. Joining us now is Cassan Garammani, president and CEO of SGH Macro Advisors. Cassan, it's great to have you back on the show.Welcome. Thanks for having me on, Morgan and John. You know, we talk about we talk about strategic ambiguity as policy as it relates to Taiwan.I wonder if we're seeing a version of that play out right now in real time in terms of US decision making around leveraging this moment to get Iran to the table for more extensive nuclear negotiations versus th ...

Geopolitical Risk & Oil Prices - Rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerns about a potential Israeli strike on Iran, have pushed oil prices to a two-month high [1] - The US is considering a partial or complete evacuation of embassies in Baghdad, Kuwait, and Bahrain, raising concerns about potential military action [3][4] - The UK Navy has warned of potential military action around key waterways, adding to the unrest in the Middle East [4] - The Iranian nuclear talks are at a critical juncture, with a potential "make or break" point on Sunday, hinging on the issue of uranium enrichment [4][5] - Israel views Iran's enrichment capabilities as intolerable, potentially leading to preemptive action [7][8] Supply & Demand Dynamics - While supply and demand are currently balanced, a strike on Carg Island, which handles 90% of Iranian oil exports, could significantly increase oil prices, potentially reducing supply by over 1 million barrels per day [11][12] - Iraqi militias located in southern Iraq near key oil infrastructure in Basra pose a risk to oil supply [13] - OPEC spare capacity could be utilized if attacks intensify [13] US-Israel Relations & Iran - There may be a difference of opinion between the US and Israel regarding acceptable levels of uranium enrichment, with Israel favoring zero enrichment [9][10] - The US's final offer on uranium enrichment terms will be crucial in determining whether Israel might act independently [10] - If nuclear talks break down, the probability of an Israeli strike increases [11]