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Starbucks Q3 Earnings Hurt by Lower Comps, Signs of Turnaround Emerge
ZACKS· 2025-07-31 17:50
Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) reported mixed results for Q3 fiscal 2025, with earnings missing estimates while net revenues exceeded expectations. The top line showed year-over-year growth, but the bottom line declined [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 fiscal 2025, Starbucks experienced a 2% decline in global comparable store sales, mirroring a 2% decline in the U.S. market, influenced by internal strategic shifts and external challenges [2] - U.S. comparable transactions fell nearly 4%, primarily due to the company facing tough year-over-year comparisons from aggressive discounting in the previous year. However, U.S. company-operated transaction comps improved for the third consecutive quarter [3][9] - The average ticket size increased by 2%, indicating a shift away from deep discounting, as Starbucks reduced the share of discounted transactions by one-third to enhance transaction quality and customer value perception, particularly among younger demographics [4] Group 2: International Performance - Internationally, comparable store sales were supported by a 2% growth in China, with a 6% increase in transactions, driven by beverage innovation, new pricing strategies, and stronger delivery sales [5][9] Group 3: Future Outlook - Although Starbucks did not provide formal guidance, management expressed a conservative outlook for Q4 fiscal 2025, acknowledging an unpredictable consumer environment and uncertainty regarding ticket and transaction growth. The company is focusing on scaling its "Green Apron Service" operating model and foundational changes expected to gain traction through fiscal 2026 [6][7] Group 4: Market Position - Starbucks currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), while other companies in the retail-wholesale sector, such as Cracker Barrel, Yum China, and Yum! Brands, have better rankings and positive growth projections [8]