Geopolitical Context - The U.S. aims to challenge China's dominance in critical minerals through various geopolitical maneuvers, including actions in Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran [1][3][14] - The U.S. seeks to limit Chinese and Russian influence in strategic locations, particularly in the Arctic and Latin America [3][6][14] Energy and Resource Control - By taking control of Venezuela's oil industry, the U.S. can restrict Chinese access to vital resources and mining investments [2][9] - The U.S. is interested in Greenland for its critical minerals and emerging trade routes, which are becoming increasingly viable due to climate change [5][6] Rare Earths and Processing Capacity - China currently holds a near-monopoly on rare earths, controlling 60% of global mining and over 90% of processing capacity [7] - The U.S. is focusing on building its processing capacity for rare earths, which is deemed more critical than mining itself [8][9] Investment and Economic Strategy - The U.S. is encouraging companies to invest $100 billion in Venezuela, countering China's previous investments of $4.8 billion in the region [9] - A critical mineral framework has been established with the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and similar agreements may be pursued with Greenland [12] Strategic Alliances and Global Dynamics - The U.S. is looking to strengthen partnerships with allies to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths and enhance its own capabilities [16][17] - The geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China is increasingly defining the global economic landscape, with potential for both conflict and cooperation [14][15]

Core Insights - Energy Fuels (UUUU) is advancing rapidly, making it challenging to capture its developments within a single quarter [1] Company Overview - The company operates in a complex and dynamic market, particularly in Argentina, which provides insights into local assets while also analyzing broader Latin American and global trends [1] - The investment approach focuses on deep value and long-term perspectives, emphasizing underfollowed names and structural stories in leading companies [1]

Industrial Policy & Economic Nationalism - The report critiques the Trump administration's "rule by deal" approach, where individual companies gain public investment through White House negotiations without transparency or consideration of the broader industrial landscape [3][4][5] - The report argues for a comprehensive, institutional approach to industrial policy, particularly for critical minerals, with a clear mission, institutional capacity, and streamlined processes [8][9][10] - The report highlights the need for government intervention in areas like rare earths and semiconductors due to China's dominance, emphasizing the importance of securing these industries [7][8] - The report mentions the CHIPS program, where $40 billion was allocated to semiconductor manufacturers, as an example of a thorough but slow process [11] Tariffs & Trade - The report suggests that broad tariffs across all imports can negatively impact trade and economic growth [20] - The report acknowledges that targeted tariffs, like those on electric vehicles from China, can be strategically useful [21] - The report warns that excessive tariffs could lead to higher prices for consumers and a less competitive domestic car market [22] AI & Data Centers - The report suggests caution regarding government investment in AI data centers, given the significant private capital already flowing into the sector, estimating close to $500 billion this year [15][16] - The report expresses concern about a potential bubble in the AI space due to excessive private investment [16]

Geopolitics and Trade - US President Trump aims to diversify critical minerals purchases from five central Asian countries [1] - The US seeks to reduce China's dominance in rare earths, which are crucial for advanced tech manufacturing [1]

Trump is signing rare earths deals ahead of talks with China's Xi- will they help? https://t.co/MiUZUBRQ6P ...

RT BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking)US President Trump and Japanese PM Takaichi sign new trade and rare earths deal - follow livehttps://t.co/YI4SPwokjz ...

US-China Relations & Trade War - APEC sideline Xi-Trump meeting expectations are low, similar to past summits [3][4] - US has consistently underestimated China's bargaining power, viewing the relationship as a one-way dependency [8] - Trump is likely to back down from his threat of an additional 100% tariff on top of the pre-existing 30% to 50% [6] - China's rare earth export controls are causing potential pressures on global supply chains and US manufacturing [7] Impact on US Economy - Tariffs are causing goods inflation, especially in categories like furniture and some consumer appliances [10] - The impact of tariffs has been slower and more gradual than initially anticipated [9][10] - Executive overreach in trade policy is undermining American legitimacy [10][13] China's Economic Strategy - China needs a new source of growth, as the property sector is struggling and exports face protectionist backlash [17] - Boosting household consumption share of GDP from currently around 40% to 50% by 2035 should be a target [19] - China has built buffers by diversifying soybean purchases and developing its domestic AI industry [14] Renminbi Internationalization - The dollar is under downward pressure due to executive overreach, deficit spending, and high levels of US debt [21] - China is gradually putting pieces together to make the renminbi more attractive as a global reserve currency [23] - China needs to open its capital account and continue to build capital reform infrastructure to internationalize the renminbi [23][24]

Geopolitical Risk - German Finance Minister criticized China's export controls on rare earths [1] - The industry hopes for de-escalation after the meeting between US and Chinese Presidents [1]

Establishing a supply chain to produce rare earths outside of China isn't expensive, @davidfickling says. If only governments stepped up (via @opinion) https://t.co/5a8FREGrVu ...

We've developed the world's most powerful permanent magnet technology and it is indeed iron nitride and we make that from iron and nitrogen to very readily available materials uh that are fully domestically sourced and our technology requires no rare earths, no critical minerals. >> What are the barriers that it seems like if this was so easy and it's made with inexpensive materials that this should have happened a long time ago. Um is is there difficulty in scaling this. Is there difficulty in the manufact ...