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eBay Inc. (EBAY): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-05 23:05
Core Thesis - eBay Inc. is undergoing a transformation from a legacy auction platform to a high-growth, AI-enhanced marketplace, with significant revenue growth and strategic initiatives in place [2][3][5] Financial Performance - eBay reported Q3 2025 revenue growth of 9% to $2.8 billion, with a 10% increase in GMV to $20 billion and a 25% growth in ad revenue to $525 million [2] - The company's trailing and forward P/E ratios are 18.34 and 13.97 respectively, indicating potential for re-rating compared to peers [1][5] Strategic Initiatives - Key drivers of growth include vertical expansion in Motors, Collectibles, Luxury, and refurbished tech, along with trust-enhancing programs like Secure Purchase and Authenticity Guarantee [3][4] - The integration of AI tools is improving conversion rates and basket sizes, while partnerships with OpenAI position eBay as a pioneer in autonomous e-commerce [3][5] Market Position and Growth Potential - eBay's Motors segment, bolstered by the Caramel acquisition, facilitates full end-to-end transactions, enhancing user engagement [4] - The company is trading at approximately 15x forward EPS, compared to peers at 20-25x, suggesting significant upside potential [5] - With over $2.5-3 billion in annual free cash flow, aggressive buybacks, and consistent dividends, eBay is positioned for stable growth [5] Future Outlook - Multiple catalysts such as AI adoption, ad growth, Motors expansion, and enhanced merchant tools could lead to a 30-50% upside from 2025 to 2028 [5]