Market Overview - Asia-Pacific markets mostly declined as investors reacted to geopolitical tensions involving the Trump administration's threats toward Greenland and anticipated key economic data from China [1][2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures were at 26,640, lower than the last close of 26,844.96, while Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 0.85% and the Topix decreased by 0.46% [3] - South Korea's Kospi bucked the trend with a slight increase of 0.18%, while the small cap Kosdaq dropped by 0.15% [3] - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 started the day 0.19% lower [3] Economic Data - China is set to release its fourth-quarter GDP numbers along with December figures for retail sales, urban investment, and industrial output, which are critical for assessing economic performance [2] Commodity Prices - Both silver and gold prices reached record highs, with silver up over 4.17% to $93.7 per ounce and gold trading 1.8% higher at $4,676.94 per ounce [4] U.S. Market Performance - The S&P 500 ended just below the flatline, marking a losing week, while the Nasdaq Composite inched down by 0.06% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.17% [4] - The major indexes hit session lows following comments from President Trump regarding the potential Fed chair nomination, which affected market sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market has the potential to rise even if the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not cut interest rates, primarily due to strong earnings growth despite some economic indicators showing weakness [3][4]. Economic Indicators - Recent retail sales numbers were weak, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) did not show strong performance, indicating mixed economic signals [3]. - The unemployment rate is increasing, which raises concerns about the Fed's timing in making rate cuts [4]. Earnings Performance - Analysts had anticipated low single-digit increases in earnings for the first three quarters of the year, but actual earnings growth came in at 10% to 15% [3][4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is facing challenges that may not be resolved by lowering interest rates, including retiring baby boomers and a skills mismatch among workers [5][6]. - Despite strong GDP growth projected at around 4% for the second and third quarters, payroll employment growth is lagging, suggesting productivity increases are outpacing job growth [6]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed's potential rate cuts may not significantly impact the bond market, as seen in previous instances where rate cuts did not lead to lower bond yields [7][8]. - Inflation remains around 3%, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate adjustments [8]. Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing sentiment that if the Fed lowers rates, it could reduce the risk of economic weakness, but persistent inflation may lead to future rate hikes [8][9]. - Concerns exist about a potential "meltup" in the stock market, where rapid price increases could lead to instability [11].

Market Trends - Fartcoin is up +23% today due to strong retail sales [1] Monetary Policy - Geiger Capital suggests the Fed should cut rates [1]