Tesla has taken the unusual step of publishing sales forecasts that suggest 2025 deliveries will be lower than expected and future years’ sales will be well below targets set by its chief executive, Elon Musk.The US electric vehicle maker published figures from analysts suggesting it will announce 423,000 deliveries during the fourth quarter of 2025, in a new “consensus” section on its investor website. That would represent a 16% decline from the final quarter of 2024.The estimates suggested that Tesla woul ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's recent vehicle registration data in Europe has raised concerns among investors, leading to a decline in the company's stock price as they await the third-quarter delivery update [1][2]. Group 1: European Market Performance - Tesla's vehicle registrations in the European Union fell approximately 37% year over year in August, totaling around 8,200 vehicles, marking a second consecutive month where BYD outsold Tesla in the region [4]. - Overall registrations in the broader European region, including the U.K. and Norway, decreased by about 22% year over year, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [4]. - The decline in Europe follows a difficult second quarter for Tesla, where deliveries were just over 384,000 vehicles, down 13% from approximately 444,000 in the same period last year [5]. Group 2: Q3 Delivery Expectations - Analysts suggest a conservative estimate for Q3 deliveries ranging from 430,000 to 455,000 vehicles, considering the ongoing weakness in Europe and mixed signals from other markets [9]. - The low end of the estimate assumes continued pressure from Europe, while the high end factors in potential gains in key markets towards the end of September [9]. - A delivery figure near 445,000 would represent a modest year-over-year decline compared to the roughly 463,000 delivered in the same quarter last year [9]. Group 3: Stock Valuation and Investor Sentiment - Tesla's stock is currently valued at over $1 trillion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 252, reflecting high expectations that may not be met if Q3 deliveries disappoint [11]. - The high valuation creates less room for error, particularly if demand trends appear weak heading into the end of the year [11]. - Despite the challenges, there are positive factors such as energy storage deployments, a recent Model Y refresh, advancements in self-driving technology, and an upcoming vehicle launch that could boost demand in the latter half of the year [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Investors are advised to focus on management's insights regarding the potential for a reacceleration in deliveries, which is crucial for aligning Tesla's fundamentals with its stock price [13].