While much of the attention of economic bears has been on tariffs, there is another economic risk that may be even larger. That is the potential for a major AI Capex investment bust. Notice I did not say AI bust. That genie is outTipranks.com shows stock returns from my articles have averaged over 30% over a one year period. I was the Credit Manager for a mid-sized publicly traded bank and retired early in 2013 due to success in the stock market. Despite never working in the industry, I took and passed the ...

Just really quickly, Tom, what do you make of the pullback in futures. Again, all three indices hit record highs. It's a very slight pullback, but what do you think the catalyst is for the pullback this morning.Well, you know, I I think it's normal to expect some profit taking. I mean, we just made all-time highs and uh you know, it is the weekend, but to me, uh you know, we know that since April 2025, any of these pullbacks have been really shallow. And you know, next week, we know that there's something v ...

Let's bring in Charles Schwab, chief investment strategist Lzanne Saunders. Um, man, Lisanne, you I mean, for the final week of August, markets being handed a lot of large questions. Um, in general, how do you think capital is responding to even, you know, set aside the commerce secretar's comments this morning, but the president just now weighed in on Cracker Barrel's logo.He's he's had say on what how Intel and Nvidia and Apple and even Coke should manage their investments in their product lines. Do you t ...

What are your what are your expectations. I think all all day long we're going to talk about JP Pal and what people expect. What are your expectations for what J Pal has to say and then how does the market react.I think uh I I think uh and I thought this for quite some time. I don't expect any big uh news out of JPAL today. I think if anything uh they're going to hold back any of that good news uh for the meeting next month, right.Because look uh the markets are expecting hoping uh for a rate cut in the nex ...

Market Outlook & Strategy - Barclays maintains a contrarian view, anticipating the Fed will not cut rates in September [1] - A hawkish tone from Jackson Hole could negatively impact small caps (especially value segment), home builders, parts of retail, and financials [2][3] - Caution is advised in small caps, requiring selectivity at the index level [4] - Financials are viewed positively due to strong earnings, good revisions, and potential benefits from increased corporate and capital markets activity [4] - Big tech is considered a safer space with high earnings quality and growth, especially if valuations pull back; previously trading around 29 times forward earnings, now approximately 28 times [5][6] - Broadening of market gains beyond big tech is uncertain, as results outside of financials and big tech are mixed [7][8] Earnings Analysis - Aggregate Q2 earnings look strong with over 10% growth and sales growth close to 6%, indicating positive operating leverage [9] - However, positive results are concentrated in financials and big tech; most other sectors are struggling with negative operating leverage [9] - The full impact of tariffs is yet to be seen, potentially affecting future earnings [9]

Market Broadening & Investment Strategy - Miller Value Partners 认为市场正在经历一个拓宽阶段，类似于 1999 年至 2006 年期间的情况 [1][2] - 建议积极投资于小盘周期性股票 [4] - 类似于 2000 年到 2006 年的环境，小型股价值指数几乎增长了两倍，跑赢大盘增长股 20%/年，持续 7 年 [3] Macroeconomic Factors - 美国失业率较低但略有上升 [3] - 通货膨胀在很大程度上受到控制，货币政策制定者受到鼓励放松政策 [4] - 债券市场目前预计未来 2 年的年化通胀率为 2.6%，属于可控范围 [5] Valuation Discrepancies & Capital Intensity - 科技七巨头（Mag 7）的估值相对于市场其他部分非常高，同时资本支出也在急剧增加 [6] - 科技七巨头（Mag 7）的资本支出占运营现金流的比例从 2020 年的三分之一以下增加到 2023 年的 60% 以上 [7] - 行业内对 AI 模型的过度投资可能导致价格战 [9] Specific Company Analysis - Alphabet 是价值投资者投资人工智能的途径，因为它拥有 YouTube、搜索和 Waymo 等资产的分配渠道 [9][10] - 尽管 Alphabet 具有更好的增长和护城河，但其交易价格低于市场 [10] - Android 操作系统每天都在 70% 的人手中，这是一个护城河 [12]

sharply lower in the probability of a fed rate cut next month markedly higher. So to today's data, give the all clear for the central bank and for the markets to give the all clear on the economy in terms of the impact from tariffs. Guy, what do you think.>> I'm not convinced they gave the all clear to the central bank. I don't think anything changed. I mean there was something in that inflation number for everybody.The headline number. People got very excited about. Then they looked at and said, well, wait ...

Defensive Sectors & Investment Strategy - Defensive sectors are gaining attention as the back half of the year approaches [1] - Healthcare sector ETFs have experienced significant outflows, with healthcare's performance versus the S&P 500 in its bottom decile over the last 50 years [3] - Investors should consider going global and employing long/short strategies, as most investors are long-only and focused on US assets [6] - Opportunities exist in exchange rate markets, which few investors include in their portfolios [7] - Global macro managers are building long bond positions as yields have risen [8] Market Dynamics & Fund Flows - Crypto is a leading category with investors latching onto the movement, with Bitcoin prices hitting $123,000+ [13] - Investors are allocating money to cash, attracted by the 425% (4 and a quarter) returns in money market funds [14] - Small caps are experiencing outflows despite a rally, potentially presenting a contrarian play [15] Portfolio Adjustments & ETF Management - ETF managers are adjusting positioning based on how they're seeing managers shift their positions on a daily basis [10] - In times of rapid policy and market changes, managers may shift positions from long to short over weeks [11] - ETFs can bring in strategies that navigate policy changes for investors [12] Investment Opportunities - Building portfolios that can perform well in a falling growth environment, including long bonds, long gold, and short the US dollar, is a non-consensus view favored by some hedge funds [16] - Bitcoin momentum presents a significant opportunity [17]