Jonathan Kinsky, BTIG, has a new note on the small caps today. So, we wanted to bring him in to talk to you about it. It's nice to have you, especially given this move we've seen in the last few days at least.Um, we getting confirmation of a of a bigger breakout. >> Hey, Scott. So, I mean, yeah, there's a couple of points here.one um you know we had this the Russell 2000 breakout in September two new all-time highs but the S&P 600 which is a small cap index that has a profitability component um really conti ...

Greg Tuorto, Goldman Sachs Asset Management portfolio manager, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why he's bullish on small caps, expectations for small caps in the next Fed rate cut cycle, and much more. ...

All right. So, just yesterday we seem to get uh a renewed confidence in the AI trade. So many of those names moving higher this morning after coreweave earnings and this news that Soft Bank is selling out of its Nvidia share.A lot of questions it seems when it comes to investors. A lot of the names that move higher yesterday moving lower now. This volatility when it comes to the AI trade.Do you think it's sustainable. >> Well, I think there given the valuations, given the kind of numbers that we're looking ...

Market Performance & Valuation - Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500 by 41% versus 35% in 6 months since "Liberation Day" [2] - Small caps have underperformed the S&P 500 for the last 10 years, leading to historically cheap valuations [3] Earnings & Growth - Small caps experienced an earnings recession since 2022 [4] - Forward estimates for small caps saw significant cuts, potentially setting up a positive environment [4] - Earnings are pivoting positive, which is expected to drive stock prices up [5] IPO & Takeouts - September saw one of the biggest IPO markets on record [5] - Federated Kaufman Small Cap Fund has had nine takeouts this year [6] Interest Rate & Economic Outlook - Federated anticipates the market reaching 8,700 by 2027 [7] - The expectation is that the Fed will cut interest rates due to lower inflation and wage growth [7] - A low inflation, Goldilocks growth environment, supported by technology, is expected to benefit longer duration assets like small caps [8] Stock Highlight - Centuri (CTRI) is highlighted as a small cap company benefiting from increased electricity demand due to AI and data centers [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the potential risk of a significant AI capital expenditure (Capex) investment bust, which may pose a larger economic threat than tariffs [1]. Group 1: Economic Risks - The focus is on the risk associated with AI Capex investments rather than an overall AI market bust, indicating that while AI technology is established, the investment landscape may face challenges [1]. Group 2: Investment Insights - The author mentions a historical average stock return of over 30% from their articles over a one-year period, suggesting a strong track record in identifying investment opportunities [1]. - The portfolio composition includes 50-75% deep value stocks, primarily in small-cap companies, indicating a strategic focus on undervalued assets [1].

Just really quickly, Tom, what do you make of the pullback in futures. Again, all three indices hit record highs. It's a very slight pullback, but what do you think the catalyst is for the pullback this morning.Well, you know, I I think it's normal to expect some profit taking. I mean, we just made all-time highs and uh you know, it is the weekend, but to me, uh you know, we know that since April 2025, any of these pullbacks have been really shallow. And you know, next week, we know that there's something v ...

Market Sentiment & Trading Behavior - Concerns about state capitalism and government intervention in private sector companies are unsettling, but short-term market reactions, driven by the "buy the dip" mentality of retail traders, persist [2][3] - The "buy the dip" strategy is evident in the outperformance of meme stocks and heavily shorted stocks, suggesting retail traders are either ignoring concerns or trained to buy on dips [4] Corporate Earnings & Fundamentals - Corporate earnings have been a support for the market, with actual earnings in the second quarter doubling consensus expectations [6][7] - Analysts may not have fully extrapolated the strong first half of the year into future earnings estimates, potentially setting up for another positive surprise in the third quarter [7] - Valuation concerns remain, and corrective phases similar to those seen in mid-February to early April may occur [8] Small Cap Performance & Fed Policy - The Russell 2000 and S&P 600 have outperformed the S&P 500 quarter-to-date, with returns comfortably above 7%, roughly double the S&P's return [10] - Prospects of Fed easing, potentially starting in September, and relative calm in the bond market are supporting small caps [10] - Approximately 40% of the Russell 2000 consists of non-profitable and zombie companies, making small caps vulnerable if the Fed's easing policy changes [11]

What are your what are your expectations. I think all all day long we're going to talk about JP Pal and what people expect. What are your expectations for what J Pal has to say and then how does the market react.I think uh I I think uh and I thought this for quite some time. I don't expect any big uh news out of JPAL today. I think if anything uh they're going to hold back any of that good news uh for the meeting next month, right.Because look uh the markets are expecting hoping uh for a rate cut in the nex ...

Market Outlook & Strategy - Barclays maintains a contrarian view, anticipating the Fed will not cut rates in September [1] - A hawkish tone from Jackson Hole could negatively impact small caps (especially value segment), home builders, parts of retail, and financials [2][3] - Caution is advised in small caps, requiring selectivity at the index level [4] - Financials are viewed positively due to strong earnings, good revisions, and potential benefits from increased corporate and capital markets activity [4] - Big tech is considered a safer space with high earnings quality and growth, especially if valuations pull back; previously trading around 29 times forward earnings, now approximately 28 times [5][6] - Broadening of market gains beyond big tech is uncertain, as results outside of financials and big tech are mixed [7][8] Earnings Analysis - Aggregate Q2 earnings look strong with over 10% growth and sales growth close to 6%, indicating positive operating leverage [9] - However, positive results are concentrated in financials and big tech; most other sectors are struggling with negative operating leverage [9] - The full impact of tariffs is yet to be seen, potentially affecting future earnings [9]

Market Broadening & Investment Strategy - Miller Value Partners 认为市场正在经历一个拓宽阶段，类似于 1999 年至 2006 年期间的情况 [1][2] - 建议积极投资于小盘周期性股票 [4] - 类似于 2000 年到 2006 年的环境，小型股价值指数几乎增长了两倍，跑赢大盘增长股 20%/年，持续 7 年 [3] Macroeconomic Factors - 美国失业率较低但略有上升 [3] - 通货膨胀在很大程度上受到控制，货币政策制定者受到鼓励放松政策 [4] - 债券市场目前预计未来 2 年的年化通胀率为 2.6%，属于可控范围 [5] Valuation Discrepancies & Capital Intensity - 科技七巨头（Mag 7）的估值相对于市场其他部分非常高，同时资本支出也在急剧增加 [6] - 科技七巨头（Mag 7）的资本支出占运营现金流的比例从 2020 年的三分之一以下增加到 2023 年的 60% 以上 [7] - 行业内对 AI 模型的过度投资可能导致价格战 [9] Specific Company Analysis - Alphabet 是价值投资者投资人工智能的途径，因为它拥有 YouTube、搜索和 Waymo 等资产的分配渠道 [9][10] - 尽管 Alphabet 具有更好的增长和护城河，但其交易价格低于市场 [10] - Android 操作系统每天都在 70% 的人手中，这是一个护城河 [12]