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泡泡玛特:以 IP 为核心的多元化布局,评级 “强力买入”
2026-02-11 05:57
Summary of Pop Mart (9992.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group Ltd - **Industry**: Pop toy industry - **Market Cap**: HK$361,948 million (US$46,316 million) [6] Key Points 1. IP-Centric Diversification Strategy - Pop Mart's strategy focuses on diversifying its intellectual property (IP) portfolio to mitigate cyclical risks and stimulate new demand. The recent collaboration, Skullpanda x My Little Pony, has shown significant interest, particularly on social media platforms like Instagram [1][3]. 2. Growth in APP Engagement - There has been a notable increase in mobile app downloads and active users, particularly in China and the US, attributed to new product releases. This trend is expected to continue during the upcoming Chinese New Year Golden Week [2][10]. 3. Emerging IPs Beyond LABUBU - Other IPs such as SKULLPANDA, TWINKLE TWINKLE, and CRYBABY are becoming significant growth drivers, with over 400 million units sold across all IPs in 2025. The interest in these non-LABUBU IPs in international markets may be underestimated [3][4]. 4. Overseas Market Potential - The sustainability of Pop Mart's growth is debated, particularly regarding the US market. The company is focusing on localized operations and collaborations to enhance its global presence. The total addressable market (TAM) for overseas markets is substantial, and improvements in organizational structure and supply chain are expected to drive expansion [4][22]. 5. Financial Performance - **Earnings Summary**: - 2023: Net Profit of RMB 1,082 million, EPS of RMB 0.807 - 2024: Net Profit of RMB 3,125 million, EPS of RMB 2.346 - 2025E: Net Profit of RMB 13,549 million, EPS of RMB 10.158 - 2026E: Net Profit of RMB 18,357 million, EPS of RMB 13.763 - 2027E: Net Profit of RMB 23,163 million, EPS of RMB 17.366 [5][8]. 6. Investment Recommendation - Pop Mart is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HK$415, representing a potential upside of 53.8%. The expected total return is 55.5%, with a dividend yield of 1.7% [6][24]. 7. Risks - Key risks include rising competition in the pop toy market, potential disappointments in global expansion, challenges in IP commercialization, and regulatory changes. Despite a high-risk rating, qualitative factors such as execution capability support the investment thesis [25][26]. 8. Market Position - Pop Mart is recognized as the largest pop toy company in China, with a growing global footprint. The company aims to capture the emerging trend of "spiritual consumption" among younger consumers, particularly Gen Z, through its diverse IP characters and marketing strategies [22][23]. 9. Valuation Metrics - The company trades at a premium compared to global peers due to its rapid growth driven by overseas expansion. The valuation is supported by a strong growth profile and execution capabilities [24]. 10. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory through innovative product offerings and effective IP management, with significant revenue growth projected for the coming years [1][4][23].