任何有机体的内生生长都不可能是高速且线性的，除非它是短生种。 估值杀跌的背后，市场解读是三层预期差集中出清： 1、营收预期未满：全年营收略低于预期的380亿元。 | 作者 | | 白猫 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编辑 | | 小白 | 3月25日，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）发布2025年财报。 全年营收371.2亿元，同比增长184.7%；经调整净利润130.8亿元，同比增长284.5%。 营收、利润的规模和增速双双创下上市以来新高。 但这却引发了二级市场股价回调，公司火速出手稳股价。自3月26日以来，公司连续3日进行回购，合 计回购726.0万股，累计回购金额10.98亿港元。 而在最新的消息层面，段永平表示自己要收回不投资泡泡玛特的说法。他指出，投资买的是未来总 量，有点"加速度"会在单位时间里跑得更远。 指引换挡引发 股价 回调 2、IP结构风险：THE MONSTERS（主要是LABUBU）收入占比升至近4成，市场担忧对单一IP过度 依赖。 3、增长逻辑切换：管理层在业绩会上给出2026年不低于20%的增长指引。 显然，20%放任何消费品公司身上能轻易得到"高速增长"的评价，但 ...

潮玩第一股泡泡玛特，深陷暴风中心。 3 月 30 日，泡泡玛特股价经历连续两日暴跌超 30% 之后，盘中终于拉升翻红。与此同时，一位极少 " 改口 " 的投资大佬罕见地推翻了自己此前的判断 —— 段永平在雪球上发文： " 决定收回对方丈说的我不投资泡泡玛特的说法。 " 这位曾 直 言 " 看不懂泡泡玛特 " 的价值投资标杆人物，却在泡泡玛特股价大幅调整之际，选择重新审视这家公司。 就在几天前，泡泡玛特交出了一份足以让所有消费品牌艳羡的 " 史上最强年报 " ： 全年营收 371.2 亿元，同比增长 184.7% ；经调整净利润 130.8 亿 元，同比增长 284.5% 。 那只长着兔耳朵、露着龅牙的 LABUBU ，单枪匹马贡献了 141.6 亿元，同比增长 365.7% ，首次将潮玩 IP 推入 " 百亿俱乐部 " 。 然而，资本市场的反应却令人大跌眼镜 。 财报发布当日 ， 股价大跌 22.51% ，次日再跌超 10% ，两日累计跌幅超过 30% ，市值较高点蒸发超 2500 亿港元。 市场的 " 投票 " 逻辑简单而残酷：泡泡玛特太依赖 LABUBU 了，而且， 2026 年居然只承诺 " 不低于 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Renowned investor Duan Yongping has revised his stance on Pop Mart, indicating a willingness to invest after reassessing the company’s potential [1][3]. Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Duan Yongping expressed a change of heart regarding Pop Mart, stating he no longer stands by his previous comment of not investing in the company [1][3]. - He emphasized the importance of future growth potential in investments, likening it to the concept of "acceleration" in physics, suggesting that a company with growth momentum can cover more ground over time [3][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported impressive financial results for 2025, with revenue reaching 37.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 184.7%, and adjusted net profit of 13.08 billion yuan, up 284.5% [9]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 72.1%, reflecting a 5.3 percentage point increase compared to the previous year [9]. - The LABUBU brand achieved significant success, generating 14.16 billion yuan in revenue, a staggering 365.7% increase, marking the first time its revenue surpassed 10 billion yuan [9]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Despite strong financial results, Pop Mart's stock price experienced a significant decline, dropping over 30% from 223.4 HKD on March 25 to 148.7 HKD by March 30 [9]. - In response to the market's negative reaction, Pop Mart initiated a share buyback program, spending approximately 600 million HKD to repurchase shares at prices ranging from 148.4 HKD to 157.8 HKD [10].

Group 1 - The report highlights that Chaoyun Group has maintained high dividends for six consecutive years, with revenue and profit both showing year-on-year growth, indicating a sustainable growth outlook for its product matrix [4][5] - In 2025, Chaoyun Group achieved a revenue of 1.988 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.24%, and a net profit of 224 million RMB, up 9.98% year-on-year, with a comprehensive gross margin of 52.61% [4][5] - The company’s home care products performed well, with revenue from this segment reaching 1.715 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while the pet business saw a significant growth of 74.3% [5][6] Group 2 - Jianmin Group's revenue for 2025 was 3.370 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.85% year-on-year, but the fourth quarter showed a strong recovery with an 82.69% increase in net profit [10][11] - The pharmaceutical industrial segment of Jianmin Group reported a revenue of 2.025 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.91%, driven by strong sales of prescription and OTC products [11][12] - The company is focusing on brand development and innovation, with key products showing significant sales growth, indicating a strong recovery in its core business [11][12] Group 3 - The report on Yimeng Biotech indicates that the B7H3 ADC drug has shown excellent efficacy in treating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), with promising clinical trial results [13][14] - The drug has received fast track designation from the FDA, highlighting its potential in the market [14][15] - The clinical study included 146 patients, showing a median radiographic progression-free survival of 11.3 months, indicating strong therapeutic potential [15][16] Group 4 - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 37.12 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 184.7%, with adjusted net profit rising by 284.5% [18][19] - The company has seen a significant increase in online sales, which accounted for 44.3% of total revenue, reflecting a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [21][22] - The number of IPs generating over 2 billion RMB in revenue has increased, with the "Star People" IP showing a remarkable growth of 1602% [25][26] Group 5 - CIMC Vehicles reported a revenue of 20.18 billion RMB in 2025, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, but with a strong performance in the Chinese market, where semi-trailer sales increased by 15% [28][29] - The company anticipates a recovery in the North American market in 2026, with significant order rebounds indicating a potential turnaround [29][30] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic positioning in the global market, particularly in the southern regions, which are expected to drive future growth [28][29] Group 6 - Power Development reported a revenue of 5.293 billion RMB in 2025, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, but maintained a high profit margin despite market challenges [32][33] - The company achieved a high dividend payout ratio of 123%, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [33][34] - The report outlines ongoing projects that are expected to enhance production capacity significantly in the coming years, indicating strong growth potential [34][35] Group 7 - Bluestar Technology is recognized as a leader in adsorption separation materials, with significant growth driven by innovation and market demand in various sectors [37][38] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing market for small nucleic acid drugs, with projections indicating substantial growth in this area [38][39] - The report forecasts revenues of 2.733 billion RMB for 2025, with a strong growth trajectory expected in subsequent years [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 37.12 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 184.7%, with an adjusted net profit of 13.08 billion yuan, up 284.5% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company's adjusted net profit margin reached 35.2%, an increase of 9.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][7]. - The company has successfully expanded its IP portfolio, with the leading IP "THE MONSTERS" generating 14.16 billion yuan in revenue, marking a staggering growth of 365.7% year-on-year [7]. - The global strategy has shown significant results, with overseas revenue reaching 16.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 291.9%, accounting for 43.8% of total revenue [7]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational leverage, with a gross margin of 72.1%, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year, and a decrease in sales expense ratio by 6.2 percentage points to 21.8% [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for 2026 is 44.55 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 15.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18% [8][10]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2025 was 57.3%, indicating strong profitability [3][10]. - The adjusted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is projected at 11.4x, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [8][10].

「Going Global 出海周报」 是创业邦推出的出海系列栏目，旨在为出海领域的创业者和投资人精选 出海大事件、海外大公司、投融资消息， 本篇 为栏目第 323 篇报道。 整理丨 Lucus 本周（ 3 月 23 日至 3 月 2 9 日）出海大事件包括 ： DHL快递与SHEIN签署 " 绿色航燃"协议 ； 阿里速卖通和奥地利邮政签署MOU； 拼多多正式宣布启动"新拼姆"战略 ； 比亚迪正式进军加拿大 市场；小马智行欧洲首个商业化Robotaxi即将路测； 泡泡玛特去年营收首破300亿元； 吉利汽车正 式登陆西班牙市场 ； 马斯克曾邀扎克伯格竞购OpenAI的IP ；Sora宣布关停 出海四小龙 DHL快递与SHEIN签署"绿色航燃"协议 3月26日消息，在上海"Now & Next"物流峰会上，DHL快递与SHEIN正式签署"绿色航燃 （GoGreen Plus）"协议。根据协议，SHEIN将在国际快递航空运输中使用DHL快递提供的可持续航 空燃料，以降低洲际空运的碳排放。 DHL快递长期以来一直是SHEIN全球物流网络中的核心承运商之一，双方多年来保持着稳固的战略合 作伙伴关系。 在航空物流领域，双 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company achieved impressive performance in 2025, with revenue reaching 37.12 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 184.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 12.78 billion RMB, up 308.8% [7] - The company is committed to global expansion, with significant revenue growth in both domestic and international markets, including a 748.4% increase in the Americas [7] - The company continues to deepen its IP operation capabilities, with 17 artist IPs generating over 100 million RMB in revenue in 2025 [7] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected net profits of 16 billion RMB, 19.47 billion RMB, and 23.57 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 46.89 billion RMB in 2026, 56.29 billion RMB in 2027, and 67.27 billion RMB in 2028, with growth rates of 26.32%, 20.05%, and 19.51% respectively [6][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 16 billion RMB in 2026, 19.47 billion RMB in 2027, and 23.57 billion RMB in 2028, with growth rates of 25.27%, 21.67%, and 21.07% respectively [6][9] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 41.8% in 2026, 33.7% in 2027, and 29.0% in 2028 [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of Pop Mart, highlighting its impressive financial results for 2025 alongside a significant stock price drop, raising questions about market sentiment and future growth potential [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Pop Mart's revenue for 2025 reached 371.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 185%, slightly below market expectations of 380 billion RMB [18]. - Net profit surged by 309% to 128 billion RMB, exceeding the expected 126 billion RMB, while adjusted net profit was 130.8 billion RMB, up 284.5% [18]. - The company's reliance on its core IP, LABUBU, increased from 23% to 38%, raising concerns about its growth narrative [14]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Dynamics - The significant stock price drop was not solely driven by retail investors; institutional selling, particularly from foreign banks like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, contributed to the decline [8][11]. - Despite the drop, there was still a net active buying of 4.94 billion RMB, indicating some investors remained bullish [8]. - The divergence in expectations post-earnings report led to a rapid withdrawal from positions by hedge funds that had previously held optimistic views [14][15]. Group 3: Growth Prospects and Challenges - The article outlines that while 2025 was an exceptional growth year, the company aims for a more sustainable growth target of "not less than 20%" for 2026 [24]. - Pop Mart's international revenue grew significantly, with overseas sales increasing by 291.9% to 162.7 billion RMB, now accounting for 43.8% of total revenue [24]. - Concerns were raised about the slowdown in growth momentum in the Americas and Europe, particularly in Q4, which could impact future performance [24]. Group 4: Strategic Diversification - Pop Mart's entry into the small appliance market through an OEM model has raised eyebrows, as it shifts the company's focus from pure IP to functional products [31]. - This diversification strategy may alter market perceptions and valuation metrics, potentially leading to a reassessment of the company's growth narrative [33]. - The market's reaction suggests a fear that this move could dilute the brand's identity and core value proposition, leading to increased uncertainty [35].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][16][17] Core Insights - The company aims for healthy development while promoting globalization and a long-term strategy centered around intellectual property (IP) [2][16] - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 371.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 184.7%, and an adjusted net profit of 130.8 billion yuan, up 284.5% year-on-year [5][6] - The adjusted net profit margin improved significantly to 35.2%, an increase of 9.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by higher gross margins and effective cost control [6][16] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 138.8 billion yuan, and for the second half, it was 232.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 204.4% and 174.1% respectively [7] - The online revenue growth rate was significantly higher than offline, with online sales increasing by 295% year-on-year, while offline sales grew by 149% [8][10] - The company’s gross margin for 2025 was 72.1%, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to an increase in overseas revenue and a flexible supply chain strategy [6][16] Market Expansion - The company’s overseas revenue reached 162.7 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 292%, with overseas revenue accounting for 43.8% of total revenue [10][13] - The number of overseas stores increased to 185, a year-on-year increase of 95 stores, with significant growth in the Americas and Europe [13][16] - The company has been exploring innovative business experiences, including theme parks and merchandise stores, to drive long-term growth [12][16] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are 447 billion yuan, 513 billion yuan, and 560 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 151.7 billion yuan, 175.9 billion yuan, and 192.2 billion yuan [15][16] - The adjusted P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 12 in 2026 to 9 in 2028, indicating a favorable valuation trend [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of Pop Mart, highlighting its impressive financial results for 2025 alongside a significant stock price drop, raising concerns about its future growth potential and market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Pop Mart's revenue surged by 185% to 371.2 billion RMB, slightly below the market expectation of 380 billion RMB, while net profit increased by 309% to 128 billion RMB, exceeding the expected 126 billion RMB [15]. - The company's reliance on its core IP, LABUBU, increased from 23% to 38%, raising concerns about the sustainability of its growth model [16]. - The revenue from the Chinese market grew by 134.6%, but its share of total revenue decreased from 68.2% to 56.2%, while overseas revenue soared by 291.9% to 162.7 billion RMB, now accounting for 43.8% of total revenue [24]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The stock price of Pop Mart fell sharply by 22.51% on March 25, resulting in a market capitalization loss of approximately 655.7 billion HKD, with further declines of over 10% the following day [2][3]. - The sell-off was primarily driven by foreign institutional investors, while domestic funds remained bullish, indicating a divergence in market sentiment [5][9]. - Analysts from major foreign investment banks had previously set optimistic price targets, which led to a significant discrepancy between market expectations and actual performance post-earnings release [10][11]. Group 3: Growth Concerns and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the market's reaction reflects a combination of profit-taking and a reassessment of growth expectations, particularly regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart's rapid growth [12][26]. - The company plans to expand its presence in the Americas and explore new markets, with a focus on enhancing store efficiency rather than merely increasing the number of outlets in China [25]. - Pop Mart's entry into the small home appliance market has raised concerns about its brand positioning and potential dilution of its core IP value, leading to further uncertainty in its growth trajectory [27][30].