Economic Situation & Monetary Policy - The current economic situation is highly unusual due to conflicting inflation and unemployment risks, potentially unprecedented [1][2][3] - Supply shocks push up prices and reduce purchasing power, creating a dilemma for monetary policy [3][4] - The Fed's consensus views tariffs as a one-time price hit, but its impact on inflation expectations is uncertain [4][5][6][7] - There's a risk of losing contact with the 2% inflation target and developing an inflation psychology [9] - The industry believes the Fed needs to be more proactive in demonstrating its commitment to the inflation target, especially given political pressures [10] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs lead to a permanent increase in the price of goods, unlike temporary supply shocks [6] - The key concern is whether tariffs will fuel inflation expectations, leading to a wage-price spiral [7] - The long-term inflation impact of tariffs is uncertain, and humility is warranted [8][9] Fed & Politics - It's unprecedented for a member of the administration on leave to be a governor of the Fed [2] - It's unusual for a president to try to remove a Fed member on what many consider a pretext [2] - It's also unusual for a Fed chair to operate when the president has publicly criticized them [2]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Fed faces a stagflation-type scenario with high inflation due to supply shocks (tariffs) that may weaken the economy [2] - The Fed is considering a presumptive 25 basis point rate cut amidst concerns about inflation expectations [2] - The central bank should normally look through temporary supply shocks to inflation, but the Fed is worried about inflation expectations [3][4] - If inflation expectations rise and become anchored, it could lead to incrementally higher inflation over time [6] - Compromised central bank independence could lead to expectations of easier monetary policy, causing inflation and higher interest rates [7][8] - The Fed's concern about inflation expectations may make them reluctant to ease as fast as they normally would [5][10] Central Bank Independence - Attacks on the Fed, such as the Lisa Cook situation, and potential political influence are concerning [4][9] - The appointment of someone still working in the White House to the Fed is unprecedented [4] - Examples like Turkey and Argentina show that compromised central bank independence can lead to high interest rates and distrust in statistics [9][10]

Supply Dynamics - Bitmine's program requires 470 万 (4.7 million) more ETH coins [1] - Exchange reserves hold 1840 万 (18.4 million) ETH coins [1] - Bitmine is projected to corner 5% of the total ETH supply [1] Market Outlook - The market anticipates a potential ETH supply shock [1] - The report suggests buying ETH before Bitmine accumulates a significant portion of the supply [1] Financial Implications - Bitmine's program is valued at 200 亿 (20 billion) USD [1]

3 wallets just bought 18 punks with 1423 eth. only 250 listed before next 50% floor jump. supply shock loading ...