5 July 2025 | 5:29PM HKT China commodities Supply side work expectations - reform or reprieve There have been signs of renewed policy focus in addressing supply discipline, as indicated by the readout of the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission on July 1st. The meeting reiterated the need for China to develop a "unified national market", explicitly calling for a crackdown on overly intensive competition between firms that has caused lower prices. An orderly exit of obsolete ...

Iron ore headed toward the highest close since May as China’s renewed focus on supply-side reform lifted expectations for the country’s steel market https://t.co/qhWIthYmLS ...

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，供给侧改革、技术变革和海外变局是光伏行业当前关注的重 点。行业经历2020-2023年大周期调整后，目前处于主链全行业亏现金流状态，部分环节二三线企业持 续亏损近两年，产业处于盈利周期底部。2025年3月以来受抢装潮影响，企业利润逐步向上修复，利润 的修复短期看价格，长期看需求。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 供给侧改革预期增强，光伏行业有望逐步复苏 行业经历2020-2023一轮大周期，目前处于主链全行业亏现金流状态，部分环节二三线企业持续亏损近 两年，产业处于盈利周期底部。2025年3月以来受抢装潮影响，企业利润逐步向上修复，利润的修复短 期看价格，长期看需求。自2024年10月18日，协会发布"反内卷"倡议以来，自律联盟、配额减产，新产 能投产限制等措施正在逐步推行，预计未来也将陆续会有渐进式政策推出，一方面控制产能无序增长、 防止内卷，另一方面解决装机痛点，扩大需求等方式进行产业链价格托底，目标是让行业回归至合理盈 利水平。2025年光伏行业政策的核心在于引导行业从"规模扩张"转向"质量优先"，从供需两端推动行业 高质量发展，加强能耗控制，优化市场机制，提高技术创新， ...

2Q25 Outlook: Finding Certainty In Uncertainty We expect tariff impact to weigh on the materials space in 2Q25. We prefer gold, cement, building materials and steel for 2Q25, and in 2H25 metals-related stocks may outperform when further stimulus comes through. April 22, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific Demand showed signs of recovery in 1Q, outlook for 2Q is uncertain due to tariff concerns: Multiple signs show demand seems to have bottomed in China in 2024. 3M 2025 domestic excavator sales ...

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive, with a preference for gold, cement, building materials, and steel for 2Q25 [7]. Core Insights - Demand in the materials sector showed signs of recovery in 1Q25, but the outlook for 2Q25 is uncertain due to tariff concerns [2]. - The report anticipates that metals-related stocks may outperform in 2H25 as further stimulus is expected [1][6]. - The impact of tariffs is projected to lower China's 2025 real GDP forecast by 30 basis points to 4.2% [2][18]. Summary by Sections Gold - Gold is identified as the top pick within commodities, supported by ongoing central bank buying and rising ETF inflows [3]. - Lower Treasury yields are expected to enhance gold's macro backdrop [3]. Cement and Steel - Cement supply-side controls were announced in November 2024, leading to a focus on profitability rather than price wars [4]. - A production cut of 30 million tons and an export cut of 15-20 million tons for steel is anticipated in 2025 [4]. Metals - In 2H25, copper and aluminum are expected to outperform due to continued demand from grid and EV-related infrastructure [5]. - The report notes that aluminum will benefit from margin expansion amid limited supply increases [5]. Tariff Impact - The cumulative US tariffs are expected to have a more significant growth drag compared to the 2018-19 period, with a projected weighted average tariff hike on China reaching 34% by year-end [17]. - The tariff shocks are anticipated to affect both trade channels and domestic demand, contributing to a GDP growth reduction of 90 basis points [18].