The good times have firmly come to an end, but wage growth remains strong https://t.co/I4wg5RqJpq ...

there could be some uh erosion of the belief in the Fed's commitment to the 2% target. Um h how much should we worry that uh you guys are cutting rates while you're away from your target. And not only that, for don't forecast you hit your target until 2028.>> Well, Steve, I don't see the erosion yet. Thankfully, it's not there in the data, but it's something that we need to work extra hard to explain to the public why we're making the actions that we're making, why we're cutting rates right now in light of ...

US wage growth for job stayers topped that for those who changed jobs for a sixth straight month in July, the longest such stretch since the wake of the Great Recession, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta https://t.co/5srqj4gWQt ...

Wage Growth - China's wage growth has slowed to the weakest pace outside the pandemic period [1] - Goldman Sachs Group compiled an alternative indicator showing the anemic wage growth [1]

Fiscal Policy & Economic Impact - The legislation is viewed as a significant legislative achievement, but concerns exist regarding its potential to substantially increase budget deficits in the future [1] - The legislation is considered the largest cutback in the social safety net identified, occurring alongside potential reductions in spending on scientific research, arts, humanities, and foreign assistance programs [3] - Concerns are raised that the legislation compromises the nation's capacity to defend itself due to increased debt and negatively impacts its standing as a humane force in the world [4] - Bond market trends, particularly forward rates on regular bonds (well above 5%) and TIPS (well above 3%), are seen as potentially ominous indicators of the nation's medium-term credibility and ability to issue long-term debt [12] Tariffs & Inflation - Despite concerns about tariffs, CPI numbers have not yet indicated the inflation predicted by most economists [6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may be delayed, with potential deflationary forces from artificial intelligence and technology possibly influencing the situation [7][8] - Studies during the president's first term indicated that tariffs translated into higher prices in affected sectors [9] Consumer & Small Business - Consumer spending grew by over 4% in the second quarter of 2024, supported by employment and wage growth [14] - Moderate-income households are showing some shifts in spending patterns, but overall discretionary spending remains consistent [15] - Small and medium-sized businesses face challenges due to the rising interest rate environment affecting their short-term borrowing costs [16] - Uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs poses challenges for companies engaged in international trade, while the certainty provided by the tax rate is seen as a positive factor [17] Labor Market - Construction, farming, and travel/entertainment companies are expressing concerns about labor availability at any price [18] - Ensuring an adequate workforce is crucial for the continued growth of the service economy [19]