Market Liquidity & Central Bank Policy - Global liquidity trends could determine the fate of a potential mega altseason in Q4 [1] - China's August data indicates economic weakness, with retail sales increasing by 34% year-over-year, falling short of the estimated 39%, and industrial production growing by 52% year-over-year, the slowest in 12 months [1] - Urban unemployment in China rose to 53% in August [1] - The market anticipates a 25bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17 [2] - A dovish stance from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could weaken the yen, increasing USD liquidity globally [3] Potential Crypto Market Impact - A synchronized global easing scenario (Fed cuts, dovish BOJ, supportive BOE) could lead to massive liquidity inflow, potentially driving BTC to break $120,000, accelerating ETH ETF flows, and causing altcoins to outperform [3] - A worst-case scenario (Fed disappoints, weak China, hawkish BOJ) could trigger volatility spikes, with BTC holding relatively better but altcoins potentially retracing significantly [4] - Liquidity cycles typically flow into BTC first, then ETH, and finally altcoins [5] - A dovish alignment among global central banks in the next 10 days could signal the start of an altseason [5]

Gold Rises on Expectations of Fed Rate Cut https://t.co/AYf4nXg9L0 ...

RT The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)This is the definition of broken:In 15 days, the Fed will cut rates for the first time in 2025, yet the 30Y Treasury Yield is now near 5.00%.We have RISING interest rates as markets "price-in" Fed interest rate CUTS.Do you realize what's happening?(a thread) https://t.co/AKt5KG0qx3 ...

Market Trend - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates this year [1] - Lower interest rates are anticipated to increase transaction volume in the housing market [1] Company Impact ($OPEN) - Increased transaction volume in the housing market is considered beneficial for $OPEN [1]

Fed cuts would immediately make borrowing cheaper on credit cards and auto loans, since those products are based on the short-term interest rates the central bank heavily influences. Mortgages are a different story, however. https://t.co/p93JFFvaJj ...

Interest Rates and Housing Affordability - Lowering interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not inherently make housing more affordable; in some cases, it can make it less affordable [2][3] - Mortgage rates are more dependent on the long end of the yield curve (e.g., 10-year and 30-year yields) and typically trade 1.5% to 2% higher due to associated risks [6] - The Fed is projected to lower interest rates in September, but this may change based on labor market reports and inflation readings [7] - If the Fed cuts rates preemptively to avoid a recession, it can reignite "animal spirits," causing markets to rise and the bond market to reprice inflation risk, potentially increasing mortgage rates [12][13][14] - Cutting rates prematurely may worsen the real estate market [34] Asset Prices and Housing Market Improvement - Lower asset prices are needed to achieve a durable improvement in housing affordability [22][23][25] - Lower asset prices lead to a lower long end of the yield curve, which in turn leads to lower mortgage rates [39] - The market may take 6 to 12 months to accept the reality that lower asset prices are necessary to improve the real estate market [23] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The housing market is currently seeing a drop in new privately-owned housing units under construction due to unaffordability [20][21] - The author anticipates that after a second round of rate cuts, potentially starting in September, the long end of the yield curve will likely increase, leading to higher mortgage rates [29][30] - It may take a couple of years for the market to accept that lower asset prices are needed to improve the real estate market [33]

🇺🇸 $3 TRILLION GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS THE FED TO START CUTTING RATES IN SEPTEMBER. ...

🇺🇸 TRUMP: "Fed should cut Rates by 3 Points. Very Low Inflation. One Trillion Dollars a year would be saved!" https://t.co/JScOtNoKj5 ...

🇺🇸 TRUMP: Urges Fed to cut rates by 3 points, claiming it would save $1 trillion a year. https://t.co/1YWjbLU7u3 ...

Everyone’s waiting for the Fed to cut rates—but will mortgage rates even fall when it happens? Here’s what homebuyers should know before banking on a drop that may never come. https://t.co/takTr1UAr5 ...