A war Iran fought against Iraq four decades ago explains its approach to the recent fight with Israel and offers clues on what it might do next https://t.co/OsPAf2WTj4 ...

Tonight in Iran, mass funerals for military officers and nuclear scientists killed in the country's 12-day war with Israel. Tens of thousands taking to the streets of Tehran. The Iranian capital echoing with the whales of mourners and calls for vengeance.We want revenge for our martyr's blood, this woman says. But despite the rhetoric, no sign Iran's battered regime wants to return to the fight. After those widespread strikes by Israel and the American attack on its nuclear facilities with B2 bombers, Presi ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a bullish outlook on the oil market, indicating a modestly bullish positioning on oil [17]. Core Insights - The global oil market is expected to experience a surplus in 2025 and 2026, with quarterly global oil supply and demand balances projected [25]. - Global oil demand is anticipated to grow by 0.7 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2025 and 0.8 Mb/d in 2026, with total demand reaching approximately 106.2 Mb/d by 2030 [34][37]. - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $65.99 per barrel in 2025, with a gradual increase to $75.00 by 2028 [3]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Forecast - The UBS forecast for Brent crude oil prices is $74.97 in 1Q25, declining to $62.00 in 3Q25 and 4Q25, before recovering to $65.99 in 2025 [3]. Global Oil Supply and Demand - Global oil supply is projected to grow by 1.4 Mb/d in 2025 and 0.8 Mb/d in 2026, with significant contributions from non-OPEC+ countries [50][53]. - The total global oil demand is expected to reach 103.9 Mb/d in 2025, with the US contributing 20.5 Mb/d [129]. Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Persian Gulf, on oil supply and pricing, with a risk premium expected to remain elevated due to potential disruptions [11][5]. OPEC+ Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to gradually unwind production cuts, with a cumulative increase of 2.2 Mb/d planned, affecting global supply dynamics [64][66]. Inventory Trends - Global observed oil inventories rose by 25 million barrels in March, indicating a build-up in supply [104]. Capex and Project Developments - Global upstream capital expenditure is expected to increase by 2% in 2025, reflecting ongoing investments in oil and gas projects [121]. Regional Demand Insights - The report notes that US gasoline demand is projected to align with 2024 levels in 2Q25, indicating stable consumption patterns [43]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term oil price forecast suggests a gradual increase in prices, with a breakeven price for various regions and types of oil production outlined [124].

Group 1: Company Overview - Boeing Company (BA) is expected to experience growth in its defense business segment due to the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, particularly through its Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS) unit which focuses on military aircraft and strategic missiles [1][8] - Boeing has a long-standing relationship with Israel, spanning over 75 years, with the Israeli Air Force utilizing various Boeing defense products such as F-15I fighter jets and Apache helicopters [2][3] - The partnership with Israel provides Boeing a competitive edge in securing additional defense contracts amid rising regional tensions [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Iran-Israel conflict is anticipated to increase demand for lethal weapons among Israel and neighboring nations, benefiting defense contractors like RTX Corporation and Leidos Holdings Inc. [4] - Leidos Holdings collaborates with key Israeli defense companies and is an authorized supplier for the Israel Ministry of Defense [5] - RTX's Raytheon unit partners with Rafael Advanced Defense Systems to support Israel's defense needs, particularly through the Iron Dome Weapon System [6] Group 3: Financial Performance - Boeing's shares have increased by 12.6% over the past year, compared to the industry's growth of 14.9% [7] - The company's BDS unit is likely to benefit from heightened demand due to the Iran-Israel conflict, with Boeing trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 1.68X, below the industry average of 2.18X [8][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boeing's loss per share for 2025 and 2026 has improved, although estimates for the second and third quarters of 2025 have declined [10]

NBC’s Richard Engel joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the latest in the Iran-Israel conflict. ...

Geopolitical Risk & Oil Market Impact - The market perceives a 50/50 chance of US airstrikes on Iran's Fordo enrichment facility, potentially escalating regional conflict [3] - US intervention could prompt Iran to deploy short-range missiles against regional facilities in the Gulf and attack ships, mirroring the 2019 playbook [4][5] - Iran's 2019 actions, including targeting tankers and Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility (taking off half of Saudi Arabia's production temporarily), serve as a warning [5] - If Iran perceives an existential threat, it may disregard China's concerns and curtail energy supplies, prioritizing imposing costs on the US [9][10] Potential for Sustained Oil Price Spike - Major Middle East conflicts have historically caused multi-month or year-long disruptions of over 1 million barrels per day [13] - Iranian-backed militias in Iraq pose a risk to Iraq's energy facilities, which produce around 4 million barrels per day [14] - Despite the US Fifth Fleet's presence, Iran could mine the Straits of Hormuz or target oil tankers, disrupting oil transit [14][15] - Reports indicate Iran is aggressively jamming ship transponders, with Qatar Energy and the Greek shipping authority issuing warnings about traversing the Straits of Hormuz [15] Economic Consequences - Higher oil prices would negatively impact the US consumer and hinder President Trump's efforts to reduce inflation [8]

Bring back in Helima Croft, contributor and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Helima, what do we take away from the fact that oil is lower right now. I think the market, as you've just mentioned, has decided that the straits of Hormuz and other critical export infrastructure is not at risk.But again, we did see targeting of domestic energy infrastructure. We've seen, you know, Iranian oil depots hit, gas fields hit, and we've had the Iranians respond by targeting the all-important Hi ...

Well, Israel uh has uh struck Iranian oil storage facilities and parts of Iran's biggest natural gas field as well this weekend, but that's not having an impact on the price of oil. Uh perhaps something of a surprise. Let's get to Brian Sullivan, of course, who covers all of these markets and so much more for us.Brian, what's your take in terms of the moves here we've seen uh in the commodity itself given all the news. the the take guys is that and by the way let's hope that what Megan was talking about som ...

Geopolitical Risk & Oil Market Impact - The market is pricing in a significant geopolitical risk premium of approximately $10-12 per barrel, representing about 15-20% of the total crude oil price [3][6] - The Strait of Hormuz is identified as a key chokepoint, and any disruption there could lead to a potentially large oil supply disruption [2][3] - While Iran's oil production isn't currently targeted, its continued flow and Saudi Arabia's potential to compensate are crucial factors [4] Oil Market Dynamics & Outlook - OPEC+ moving to return barrels is a key factor influencing market sentiment and limiting fresh long positions [4] - Many analysts previously forecasted lower prices ($40-50), but the firm's 12-month Brent forecast remains at $65, indicating a medium-to-long term bearish outlook from current prices [4] - Short-term bullish catalysts exist, but investors require a positive medium-to-long term outlook to sustain long positions [4] Oil Consumption & Economic Impact - Oil consumption as a share of GDP has decreased, particularly in the US due to its shift towards a service-based economy [6] - Despite the decline in oil intensity, the US still directly consumed approximately $650 billion worth of oil last year, highlighting the significant economic impact of price fluctuations [7] - A 10% price move in oil translates to a $60 billion impact on US oil consumption [7]

Economic Outlook - The analysis suggests an acceleration of the ongoing slowdown in the global economy [2] - Policy flexibility, including that of the Federal Reserve, will be further limited [2] - Companies are reminded of the uncertainty in supply chains [2] US Treasury and Dollar - The role of US Treasuries in the global system is being eroded [2] - The world is overweight US Treasuries and the dollar, leading to reduced appetite for further accumulation [4] - There is no readily available substitute for the dollar, making the reduction in dependence a slow and gradual process [5][8] US Exceptionalism and Policy - The analysis indicates a loss of US exceptionalism and policy unpredictability [7] - Foreign investors are distinguishing between the sovereign side and the high-quality corporate side, showing less concern for the latter [8]