The market’s focus this week will be on economic news and any fresh tariff developments, the next Fed Chair, and Greenland. On Friday, the Jan S&P US manufacturing PMI is expected to be up by +0.2 to 52.0. Also, the final University of Michigan Jan US consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at 54.0.On Wednesday, President Trump said he would refrain from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations that oppose his effort to acquire Greenland. NATO Secretary General Rutte said a breakthrough ...

Economic Indicators - US November retail sales increased by +0.6% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of +0.5% [1] - US November PPI final demand rose by +3.0% year-over-year, exceeding expectations of +2.7% [1] - US December existing home sales rose by +5.1% month-over-month to a 2.75-year high of 4.35 million, stronger than the expected 4.22 million [4] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index decreased by -0.96%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index fell by -0.57%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index dropped by -1.53% [4] - Weakness in chip makers and the Magnificent Seven technology stocks is negatively impacting the broader market [3][15][16] - Energy producers are experiencing gains, with WTI crude oil reaching a 2.5-month high [17] Federal Reserve Commentary - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that the US economy shows "resilience" and does not see the need for an interest rate cut this month [5] - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson mentioned potential for modest rate adjustments later in the year if inflation moderates and growth stabilizes [6] International Trade - Better-than-expected trade news from China, with December exports rising by +6.6% year-over-year and imports increasing by +5.7% year-over-year, supporting global growth prospects [7] Earnings Season - Q4 earnings season is beginning, with S&P earnings growth expected to rise by +8.4%, and +4.6% excluding the Magnificent Seven technology stocks [10]

Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.73%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.16%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-week low and closed down -1.03%.The markets are discounting a 27% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28.This week's market focus will be on US economic news. On Friday, Nov existing home sales are expected to be up +1.2% m/m to 4.15 million. Also, the University of Michigan Dec consumer ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have reached 1.5-week highs, driven by a decline in the dollar index and concerns over Russian oil exports due to increased Ukrainian drone attacks [2][3] - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is tightening global oil supplies, with significant damage to Russian oil infrastructure impacting crude processing rates [3][6] Price Movements - October WTI crude oil is up by 1.08 (+1.71%) and October RBOB gasoline is up by 0.0209 (+1.04%) [1] - A decrease in crude oil stored on tankers, which fell by 7.2% week-over-week to 67.96 million barrels, is also supporting oil prices [5] Economic Indicators - Strong US economic data, including a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales and a 0.2% rise in manufacturing production, is bullish for energy demand and crude prices [4] Geopolitical Factors - The war in Ukraine is leading to potential new sanctions on Russian energy exports, which could further reduce global oil supplies [6] - Recent drone attacks on Russian refineries have significantly curtailed crude-processing runs to 4.98 million barrels per day, marking the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years [3]