Fourth-quarter negotiated pay rose 3.4% from a year ago after more or less stagnating in the the previous three months, Germany's central bank said https://t.co/7LQzjHjWfD ...

Core Insights - Federal Reserve policymakers largely agreed to maintain interest rates, with a 10-2 vote to keep the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% despite some calls for cuts [3][8] - The FOMC minutes indicated that several policymakers supported the inclusion of language suggesting potential future rate hikes if inflation remains high [2][4] - Inflation continues to exceed the Fed's 2% target, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index showing elevated levels, prompting caution against further rate cuts [3][10] Interest Rate Decisions - The FOMC's decision reflects a consensus on holding rates steady while monitoring inflation trends, with some members advocating for a two-sided approach to future rate adjustments [4][7] - Policymakers expressed that downward adjustments to the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation aligns with their expectations [7] Inflation Trends - The PCE inflation rate was reported at 2.8% in November, matching its highest level since October 2023, while core PCE also stood at 2.8% [11] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that core PCE inflation would be slightly above 2% if not for tariff impacts on goods prices [12]

SYDNEY, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank concluded inflation would stay stubbornly high if it had not hiked interest rates as it did this month, and was not yet sure if ‌further tightening would be necessary. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's board meeting released on ‌Tuesday showed members were worried that the risks to its inflation and employment mandates had "shifted materially", making the case to hike the ​stronger one. "Members agreed that the data received since the previou ...

Economic Performance - Japan's economy showed a meager growth of 0.2% in the fourth quarter, significantly below the expected 1.6% increase, following a revised contraction of 2.6% in the previous quarter [3] - The quarterly growth rate was only 0.1%, again falling short of the median estimate of 0.4% [3] Government Response - Prime Minister Takaichi's administration plans to increase public spending to boost consumption and economic growth following a recent election victory [1] - There is a focus on suspending the consumption tax, particularly on food, as sluggish economic activity may prompt quicker fiscal measures, including a supplementary budget in the first half of the fiscal year starting in April [4][5] Market Reactions - Japanese stocks experienced a downturn following the GDP data release, while bond markets remained subdued [5] - Analysts suggest that the weak economic performance may lead to slower interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, as the economy struggles to gain momentum [6]

智通财经APP获悉，香港金管局2月13日公布外汇基金在2026年1月底的主要分析账目。在1月份，外汇 基金的境外资产增加718亿港元，至35,973亿港元。货币基础为20,587亿港元，包括负债证明书、政府发 行的流通纸币及硬币、银行体系结余，以及已发行外汇基金票据及债券。外汇基金对香港私营部门的债 权总额为3,861亿港元。对外负债总额为639亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is set to continue significant Treasury bill purchases into the spring, with uncertainty regarding actions post the annual tax filing deadline in mid-April [1][5]. Group 1: Treasury Bill Purchases - The Federal Reserve is currently purchasing approximately $40 billion per month in Treasury bills and other short-term government bonds to rebuild reserves and manage liquidity as the tax filing date approaches [3][4]. - The overall System Open Market Account (SOMA) holdings have reached $6.2 trillion, indicating a substantial level of asset management by the Fed [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Fed officials expect the current elevated levels of purchases to continue until mid-April, after which a significant reduction in purchase amounts is anticipated [4][5]. - Post mid-April, the monthly purchase amounts will likely fluctuate based on the outlook for reserves supply and demand, as well as market conditions [5].

Summary of PBOC Q4 Monetary Policy Report Industry Overview - The report pertains to the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and its implications for the Chinese economy. Key Points 1. **Monetary Policy Stance** The PBOC maintained a "moderately loose" policy stance in its Q4 monetary policy report, indicating a measured easing approach. The focus remains on supporting stable economic growth and facilitating a reasonable recovery in prices [2][1] 2. **Policy Implementation** The PBOC emphasized the need to carefully calibrate the strength, pace, and timing of policy implementation. This reflects a cautious approach to broad-based credit easing, with structural monetary policy being prioritized [2][1] 3. **Interest Rate Management** The PBOC highlighted the importance of guiding short-term money market rates around the policy rate, suggesting a narrowing of the interest rate corridor from 205 basis points to 70 basis points. This indicates a shift towards tighter corridor management [3][1] 4. **Effective Lending Rates** Effective lending rates decreased further from Q3 to Q4, with the PBOC changing its language from "further reducing overall financing costs" to "keeping overall financing costs at a low level," indicating a more measured approach amid concerns over banks' net interest margins [3][1] 5. **Liquidity Management** The PBOC is utilizing a broad range of monetary policy tools to provide liquidity, increasingly relying on Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) loans and outright repos. Regular trading of Central Government Bonds (CGB) is planned, with operations adjusted flexibly based on market developments [7][1] 6. **Fiscal-Monetary Policy Coordination** The PBOC outlined three main channels for coordination: maintaining ample liquidity for government bond issuance, coordinating re-lending programs with fiscal interest subsidies, and sharing credit risks through guarantees. The emphasis is on relending programs as a key channel for targeted credit support [8][1] 7. **Outstanding Relending Programs** Outstanding relending programs for key sectors remained stable at around RMB 3.8 trillion through the first three quarters of 2025, rising to approximately RMB 4.1 trillion in Q4. This indicates a stable approach to credit supply in priority areas [8][1] 8. **Priority Areas for Finance** The PBOC identified five priority areas for financial support: technological innovation, green transition, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital economy [10][1] Additional Insights - The PBOC's cautious approach to broad-based credit easing suggests that fiscal policy will continue to be the primary lever for growth support, rather than relying solely on monetary policy [2][1] - The shift in focus from DR007 to DR001 indicates a potential change in the PBOC's strategy for managing short-term interest rates [3][1]

So, next up with President Trump is waste, fraud, and abuse, including Jay Powell. Check it out. Tim Scott, Senator Scott, is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. Um, he wants to get Kevin Walsh up and going for his hearings and he wants to get him passed, but it's being blocked uh by Senator Tillis in North Carolina. But Tim Scott said, "Okay, J. pal inept. No question about that.I I think he's done more to under undermine Fed independence in addition to his poor monetary decision. >> He's been terrib ...

Lorie Logan said she believes the Fed's interest-rate stance is set well for the risks facing the economy, a sign she may be reluctant to support a return to cutting rates at the central bank's upcoming meetings. ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is still grappling with the lingering effects of inflation that surged post-pandemic, impacting household budgets and influencing monetary policy decisions [2][10] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in December, significantly lower than the peak of 9% in 2022, yet still above the Fed's target of 2% [3][10] - Fed officials are cautious about cutting interest rates further due to ongoing inflation concerns, despite previous rate cuts aimed at boosting the job market [4][10] Inflation Outlook - Fed officials are debating the balance between inflation control and job market health, with some expressing concerns that inflation remains above the target for nearly five years [5][6] - Factors influencing inflation include housing costs and the potential for tariff-related price increases to become sustained rather than temporary [7] - Fed officials, including Thomas Barkin and Raphael Bostic, emphasize the need for patience in addressing inflation, which has been stuck in the high 2s to low 3s range for the past two years [8] Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed's key interest rate was held steady in the most recent meeting, with expectations that it will remain unchanged for the next two meetings, at least until June [12] - There is a 66% probability of a rate cut in June, according to market forecasts [12] - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed confidence that inflation will eventually reach the 2% target and suggested that the Fed should consider rate cuts if labor market conditions improve [9][11]