Group 1 - The article introduces J. Collinski as a new contributing analyst for Seeking Alpha, inviting others to share their investment ideas for publication and potential earnings [1] - J. Collinski has a background in Immunobiology with a PhD from Yale University and has been investing since 2016, focusing on long-term value investments [2] - The investment strategy includes targeting sectors undergoing market disruptions or crises, with a preference for holding investments for multi-year periods [2] Group 2 - The analyst has a beneficial long position in GPMT shares, indicating confidence in the stock's performance [3] - The article emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results and that no specific investment advice is being provided [4]

Key Takeaways IVR to report 4Q25 earnings on Jan. 29, after market close, with earnings expected to rise y/y.Lower rate volatility and Fed cuts in Q4 likely tightened mortgage spreads and improved IVR's book value.Falling mortgage rates boosted refinancing and origination, raising servicing amortization for IVR.Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 29, 2026, after market close. The company’s quarterly earnings available for distribution per common sha ...

Core Viewpoint - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on the mortgage market, categorized as a mortgage REIT (mREIT) [1] Group 1: Company Overview - PMT specializes in the mortgage market, indicating a targeted investment strategy within the broader REIT sector [1] - The company is involved in income investing through various financial instruments, including common shares, preferred shares, and bonds [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The author has a background in history and political science, along with an MBA specializing in Finance and Economics, highlighting a strong analytical foundation [1] - The author has been investing since 2000 and currently serves as the CEO of an independent living retirement community in Illinois, indicating practical experience in both investment and management [1]

Core Viewpoint - TPG Mortgage Investment Trust (MITT), formerly known as AG Mortgage Investment Trust, has demonstrated strong performance, achieving approximately 43% gain over the past year, significantly outperforming the VanEck Mortgage total return of around 14% [1] Company Performance - TPG Mortgage Investment Trust has been identified as one of the best-performing mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) in the market [1] Investment Strategy - The investment approach discussed includes a focus on fundamental long-term perspectives, with a combination of long stock positions, covered calls, and cash secured puts being utilized [1]

Core Viewpoint - TPG Mortgage Investment Trust (MITT), formerly known as AG Mortgage Investment Trust, has demonstrated strong performance, achieving approximately 43% gain over the past year, significantly outperforming the VanEck Mortgage total return of around 14% [1]. Company Performance - TPG Mortgage Investment Trust has been identified as one of the best-performing mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) in the market [1]. Investment Strategy - The investment approach discussed includes a focus on fundamental long-term perspectives, with a combination of long stock positions, covered calls, and cash secured puts being utilized [1].

Core Insights - AGNC Investment Corporation (AGNC) shares have increased by 14.2% over the past six months, outperforming the industry growth of 2.3% and the S&P 500 Index's rise of 11.8% [1] - The company's peers, Annaly Capital Management (NLY) shares have risen by 14.8%, while Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) shares have decreased by 13.1% during the same period [1] Performance Drivers - Easing mortgage rates have positively impacted AGNC's performance, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropping to 6.15% as of December 31, 2025, down from 6.91% a year ago [5][6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, including a 75 basis point reduction in 2025, are expected to ease earnings pressure and support AGNC's net interest income [7] - AGNC's disciplined and active portfolio management, including substantial hedges covering 68% of its outstanding investment securities, has helped mitigate risks from market fluctuations [9][10] Portfolio and Asset Management - AGNC maintains a significant exposure to Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), totaling $90.1 billion as of September 30, 2025, which supports its long-term growth outlook [12] - The company has actively adjusted its portfolio to reduce risks associated with interest rates and prepayments, focusing on higher-coupon investments [9][10] Financial Position - AGNC has a decent liquidity position, with $7.2 billion in liquidity as of September 30, 2025, allowing for opportunistic portfolio enhancements [13] - The company's leverage increased slightly to 7.6X, but remains at a conservative level, enabling effective capital deployment [14] Capital Management and Dividends - AGNC has committed to shareholder value through a new share repurchase program of up to $1 billion, authorized through December 31, 2026 [15][16] - The company currently offers a dividend yield of 13.43%, which is above the industry average of 12.60% [17] Market Challenges - AGNC's performance is sensitive to macroeconomic trends, with volatility in the mortgage market and interest rate swings affecting investment returns [20] - Despite easing mortgage rates, ongoing pressures in the residential mortgage sector pose significant near-term challenges for AGNC [21] Analyst Outlook - Analysts have a neutral stance on AGNC's earnings growth potential, with estimates indicating an 18.6% decline for 2025 and a modest growth of 1.3% for 2026 [25] - AGNC's price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.18X is above the industry's 0.96X, suggesting limited upside potential despite a favorable dividend yield [26][28]

Core Insights - The article provides a detailed analysis comparing Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) to 17 other mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) to address ongoing requests for such comparisons [1][2] - The analysis is divided into two parts, with Part 1 focusing on RITM's recent results and metrics, while Part 2 emphasizes dividend rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics [2][3] Group 1: RITM's Financial Metrics - RITM's book value as of September 30, 2025, is compared to its 17 mREIT peers, providing insights into its financial standing [2] - RITM declared a dividend of $0.25 per common share for Q3 2025, maintaining the same rate as the previous quarter, resulting in a trailing twelve-month (TTM) dividend yield of 8.26% [16][27] - The annual forward yield based on RITM's stock price as of September 19, 2025, is also 8.26%, while the yield based on the company's book value is 7.79% [16] Group 2: Dividend Sustainability Analysis - The article discusses RITM's dividend sustainability, indicating a very high probability (90%) of maintaining a dividend between $0.25 and $0.30 per share for Q1 and Q2 2026 [29] - RITM's quarterly core earnings available to common shareholders for Q3 2025 were reported at $296.9 million, translating to a core earnings per share of $0.54, which is above the dividend rate [23][21] - The dividend distribution payout ratios for RITM have been attractive, with ratios of 48%, 46%, and 47% for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2025, respectively [23] Group 3: Comparative Analysis with Peers - RITM's TTM dividend yield and annual forward yield percentages are notably below average when compared to its peer PMT, indicating a lower risk profile [16][27] - The article emphasizes that RITM has maintained a consistent dividend history, increasing its dividend from $0.35 in Q3 2014 to $0.25 since Q3 2021, contrasting with many peers that have reduced dividends [15][13] - The analysis includes a comparison of RITM's leverage ratio, which is lower than that of PMT, suggesting a more conservative approach to risk management [17] Group 4: Future Projections and Recommendations - The projected adjusted core earnings for Q4 2025 are expected to improve compared to Q3 2025, indicating a positive outlook for RITM's financial performance [30] - The current price target for RITM is approximately $14.60 per share, with recommendations varying from SELL at a premium to BUY at a discount to the projected book value [34][32] - The article concludes that RITM is currently undervalued, with a strong buy recommendation based on its financial metrics and market conditions [33]

Core Insights - The article provides a detailed analysis comparing Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) to 17 other mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) [1] - The analysis is divided into two parts, with Part 1 focusing on RITM's recent results and metrics compared to peers, while Part 2 emphasizes dividend rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics [2][3] Part 1 Summary - RITM's book value as of September 30, 2025, is compared to 17 mREIT peers, aiding in understanding the company's financial standing [2] - The analysis aims to provide insights into RITM's performance relative to its peers, particularly in terms of dividend sustainability [4] Part 2 Summary - Part 2 focuses on RITM's dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics compared to 17 mREIT peers [3] - RITM's dividend history shows an increase from $0.35 per share in Q3 2014 to $0.50 by Q4 2019, followed by a cautious reduction to $0.05 during Q1 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic [13][15] - RITM's dividend was increased to $0.10, $0.15, and $0.20 in 2020, and it has remained at $0.25 since Q3 2021, contrasting with many peers that reduced dividends [15] Dividend Analysis - RITM declared a dividend of $0.25 per share for Q4 2025, with a TTM dividend yield of 8.95% and an annual forward yield of 7.55% based on projected current book value [27][28] - The company has maintained a consistent dividend payout ratio, with figures indicating a very attractive ratio throughout 2023 and 2024 [21][22] - RITM's core earnings available for distribution (EAD) for Q1 to Q4 2023 were notably above the dividend rate, indicating strong earnings power [21] Future Projections - RITM is projected to have a very high probability (90%) of maintaining a dividend between $0.25 and $0.30 per share for Q1 and Q2 2026 [29] - The company is expected to see an improvement in adjusted core earnings/EAD in Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025, despite a slight decrease anticipated in Q1 2026 [30] Investment Recommendation - The current recommendation for RITM is a "STRONG BUY" based on its undervalued stock price relative to projected current book value [33][34] - The price target for RITM is approximately $14.60 per share, with specific ranges for buy, hold, and sell recommendations based on stock price movements [34][35]

Industry Overview - The mortgage REIT (mREIT) industry faced volatility in 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainty, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage starting at 6.72% and remaining in the upper-6% range for most of the year [1] - By December 2025, the Fed implemented a 25-basis-point rate cut, reducing the average mortgage rate to 6.21%, down from a peak of 7.05% in January 2025 [2][9] - The mREIT industry showed signs of recovery as interest rates stabilized and economic conditions improved, with expectations for further declines in mortgage rates in 2026 [3][4] Market Dynamics - U.S. economic growth is projected to accelerate in 2026, with moderating inflation and decreasing unemployment, contributing to lower mortgage rates and favorable refinancing activity [4] - Mortgage spreads have been narrowing as volatility decreases, which is expected to improve book values for mREITs as asset prices rise [5] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider mREIT stocks such as Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO), NexPoint Real Estate Finance (NREF), and Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) for potential strong returns in 2026, given their attractive dividend yields and growth prospects [3][6] - The selection of these stocks was based on criteria including an expected earnings growth rate of over 5% for 2026 and a dividend yield exceeding 10% [7] Company Insights Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO) - TWO's portfolio is primarily composed of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) with a 71.1% exposure to Agency RMBS as of September 30, 2025 [10] - The company reported a net interest loss of $63.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, an improvement from a loss of $122.8 million in the prior year [12] - TWO's current dividend yield is 12.01%, and it has raised its dividend once in the past five years, with earnings estimates suggesting year-over-year increases of 114.5% for 2025 and 6.7% for 2026 [12][13] NexPoint Real Estate Finance (NREF) - NREF focuses on originating and investing in first mortgage loans and has seen its net interest income rise to $36.1 million in the first nine months of 2025, up from $6.4 million the previous year [18][19] - The company has a current dividend yield of 13.73% and has increased its dividend three times in the past five years, with earnings estimates indicating year-over-year increases of 2.2% for 2025 and 8.1% for 2026 [19] Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) - EFC invests in a diverse range of financial assets, including residential and commercial mortgage loans, and has a strong momentum in its securitization platform [21] - The company maintains a disciplined approach to risk management, with a current dividend yield of 11.30% and three dividend increases in the past five years, alongside earnings estimates suggesting year-over-year increases of 25.3% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026 [23]

Core Insights - The author has extensive experience in executive management, particularly in insurance/reinsurance and the Asia Pacific markets, with a focus on climate change and ESG [1] Group 1 - The author holds an honours degree in economics and politics, emphasizing economic development [1] - The author has 36 years of experience in executive management, indicating a deep understanding of market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The author is involved in personal investments, suggesting a practical application of their extensive knowledge [1]