Core Insights - Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 24, with earnings estimated at $2.89 per share, reflecting a 5.47% increase year-over-year [1] - The revenue estimate for the same quarter is $6.11 billion, indicating a 1.7% rise from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 2025 earnings has been revised upward by 1.76% over the past 60 days [2] - The current earnings estimate for Q1 2025 is $2.89, while the previous estimates were $2.88 (7 days ago) and $2.84 (30 days ago) [2] - The average earnings surprise for UNP over the last four quarters is 1.18%, with two quarters exceeding estimates and two falling short [2] Revenue and Market Conditions - Freight revenues are expected to be $5.7 billion, showing a decline from Q1 2025 [4] - Other revenues are estimated at $339.8 million, representing a 1.1% increase from Q4 2024 [5] - The freight market downturn and a soft consumer market are anticipated to negatively impact margins and revenues in Q2 [4] Cost Management and Operational Efficiency - Cost-cutting measures are expected to support the bottom line, with operating expenses projected to decline compared to the previous year [6] - The operating ratio is expected to improve by 20 basis points to 60.2% in Q2 2025 [6] Shareholder Returns - Union Pacific is committed to rewarding shareholders, with a capital plan of $3.4 billion and share repurchases between $4 billion and $4.5 billion [7] - Strong free cash flow supports these shareholder-friendly initiatives [7] Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a potential earnings beat for Union Pacific, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.50% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [8]

Security Risks in Mexico's Transportation Sector - Cargo theft in Mexico has increased, posing a constant risk to companies and carriers [1] - The rise in cargo theft complicates the security landscape for Claudia Sheinbaum [1] Impact on Businesses - Companies and carriers are on alert due to the increase in cargo theft [1]

Core Insights - BofA Securities analyst Ken Hoexter upgraded ArcBest Corporation from Underperform to Neutral, raising the price target from $63 to $74, citing momentum in gaining market share among core customers [1] - The analyst increased the 2Q25 and full-year 2025 EPS estimates by 1% to $1.60 and $5.85, respectively, reflecting stronger-than-expected second-quarter volume trends driven by growth in the core LTL business [2] - ArcBest's tons per day rose 5% over April, exceeding the typical 3% increase, while shipments per day were up 2%, compared to the usual 1%, attributed to gains in core and new accounts [3] Performance Metrics - ArcBest's performance is outpacing the industry, which is experiencing high-single-digit declines in volumes, while ArcBest's tons per day are up 5% year-over-year for the quarter to date [3] - The company typically sees a sequential margin improvement of 70 basis points from the second to third quarter, but Hoexter estimates a stronger 160-basis-point gain, projecting 3Q margins at 90.4% [7] - For the fourth quarter, Hoexter expects a 100-basis-point drop in margins, forecasting 4Q margins at 91.4% [7] Market Reaction - ArcBest shares are trading higher by 4.9% to $70.57 at the last check [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses investment opportunities in high-quality stocks amidst market volatility caused by trade tariffs, highlighting companies that may provide stability and potential upside for investors. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider high-quality companies before market uncertainty dissipates, as these stocks offer favorable risk-to-reward ratios for bullish buyers [2][3] - A suggested watchlist titled "Post Tariff Gains" includes stocks like Old Dominion Freight Line, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and PepsiCo, which are expected to perform well as market conditions stabilize [3] Group 2: Old Dominion Freight Line - Old Dominion Freight Line's stock is currently priced at $162.01 with a P/E ratio of 29.56 and a price target of $182.26, indicating potential for growth [4] - Analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $1.39 for Q3 2025, a 17% increase from the current EPS of $1.19, suggesting strong future performance [7] - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in Old Dominion by 50.4%, reflecting confidence in the stock's potential amidst tariff-related uncertainties [8] Group 3: Chipotle Mexican Grill - Chipotle's stock is priced at $49.72 with a P/E ratio of 44.79 and a price target of $61.60, indicating room for growth despite tariff impacts [9] - The company has a net income margin of 13.6%, showcasing its pricing power and effective management in a challenging retail environment [10] - Institutional investors have increased their stakes in Chipotle by 8%, indicating confidence in the company's ability to navigate market volatility [11] Group 4: PepsiCo - PepsiCo's stock is currently priced at $131.92 with a P/E ratio of 18.98 and a price target of $160.69, suggesting significant upside potential of 22.6% from current levels [13][15] - The stock's forward P/E ratio of 16.4 is considered undervalued compared to previous market conditions, indicating a favorable risk-to-reward scenario for investors [13][14] - A decline in short interest by 4.7% over the past month suggests potential bullish sentiment as uncertainty in the market begins to lift [14]