Market Overview - US stock futures showed signs of recovery after initial losses, influenced by a recent slump in bitcoin and upcoming earnings reports from Nvidia and delayed jobs data [1][2] - The S&P 500 futures were down 0.2%, recovering from a 0.8% drop earlier, while Dow Jones and Nasdaq futures also improved slightly from their premarket lows [2] Cryptocurrency Impact - Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, erasing all gains for the year, which caused significant alarm in Asian markets, leading to the worst loss for Japanese stocks since April [3][10] - The sell-off in bitcoin has raised concerns about potential negative selling pressure from leveraged investors, contributing to a broader risk-off sentiment in the markets [9][12] Economic Indicators - The upcoming Nvidia earnings report is critical as investors reassess the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally, with increased scrutiny on Big Tech's debt issuance related to AI infrastructure [5] - The September jobs report, delayed due to a US government shutdown, is expected to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, with current market pricing indicating a 46% chance of rate cuts [6] Retail Sector Insights - Retail earnings reports are anticipated to provide insights into consumer strength ahead of the holiday season, with Home Depot lowering its full-year profit guidance after missing earnings estimates [7] - PDD Holdings reported a 9% revenue increase, although its stock fell 2% due to aggressive pricing strategies, while Amer Sports saw a 6% rise in stock after raising its full-year guidance [8][13]

Market Overview - US stock futures declined, indicating a potential return to losses, influenced by a slump in bitcoin and upcoming earnings reports from Nvidia and delayed jobs data [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell approximately 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures also decreased by 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.4% [1] Nvidia Earnings Report - Nvidia's stock dropped about 2% ahead of its fiscal third-quarter results, which are anticipated to provide insights into the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally [3] - Investors are concerned about stretched valuations, softening market breadth, and increasing AI-related depreciation, alongside a rise in Big Tech debt issuance [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - Key economic data points are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's future decisions, with rate-cut odds significantly reduced to about 40% from over 90% a month ago [4] - The Fed's October meeting minutes and the September jobs report are set to be released, which may impact market expectations [4] Retail Earnings Insights - Major retailers such as Walmart, Home Depot, and Target are scheduled to report earnings this week, which will provide insights into consumer strength ahead of the holiday season [5] Cryptocurrency Market Impact - Bitcoin's decline below $90,000 has raised alarms in the market, leading to fears of a negative selling spiral among leveraged investors [5][6] - The cryptocurrency fell as much as 2.8%, erasing all its gains for the year, which contributed to a significant drop in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index by over 2% [6] Asian Market Reaction - Asian stock markets experienced declines following the drop in US tech stocks, with almost every market in the region losing ground [6][11] Baidu's Performance - Baidu's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, leading to a 2% increase in its stock, driven by strong growth in its cloud business amid a recovering advertising market [9]

Stock investors are looking at a handful of key things as they try to recover from a losing week. Nvidia's earnings will be a key focus as investors assess the health of the AI trade. Traders are also trying to assess the outlook for Fed rate cuts heading into 2026. The stock market is kicking off a busy week of earnings and long-awaited economic data. Investors are taking in a slew of important data points as they try to recover from another week of volatile trading. All three major indexes ended ...

Right, let's switch gears now and bring in our first guest of the show. Joining us now is Jim Biano, president Biano Research. It's always lovely to talk to you, Jim.Uh let's get to what we're likely to hear this week as far as this whole K-shaped economy. Uh because when we talk about this, which we do very often, uh it's important to point out exactly what that means. Uh because you've actually argued uh that this is really about inflation and not jobs.Can you unpack that for us. >> Sure. The K-shaped eco ...

Blue-chip stocks saw a third day of losses on Monday as Wall Street's slump continued amid doubts about interest rate cuts, as investors looked ahead to high-stakes Nvidia (NVDA) earnings and the delayed September jobs report. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) erased modest gains to fall over 0.8%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also slipped around 1.2%, or more than 550 points. Wall Street is already getting set for Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings on Wedn ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the retail sector heading into the holiday season is bleak, primarily due to rising inflation impacting consumer health, especially among low-income consumers [1][3]. Retail Earnings Outlook - Major retailers such as Walmart, Home Depot, and Target are set to report earnings, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [1][4]. - Five Below is identified as the most likely retailer to exceed consensus expectations in its upcoming earnings report, benefiting from macro tailwinds and company-specific improvements [5]. - Target is expected to miss expectations due to ongoing struggles with consumer perception, being viewed as a "nice to have" rather than a necessity [6]. - Walmart is anticipated to report inline results, but the current stock valuation suggests limited upside potential [6][7]. Home Improvement Sector - Home Depot and Lowe's are experiencing muted performance, with expectations for uninspiring results in their upcoming reports [9]. - The performance of these companies is largely driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rates and housing turnover, which will influence home improvement demand [9]. Costco's Position - Costco's earnings report is scheduled for the second week of December, with expectations for better performance due to its focus on middle to high-income consumers, who are faring better than low-income consumers [10].

With the federal government having finally ended its shutdown last week, this week we can get back to the business of examining economic reports. Chief of these is expected to be the U.S. Employment Report due Thursday morning. Where we last left off, an average of only +29K new jobs created over the past four months was making the Fed nervous about an unraveling labor market, which helped them decide to cut interest rates even as inflation metrics were ticking back up.Compare this to the previous four-mont ...

Market Trend Analysis - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has shown an "orderly" upward trend, with a channel connecting higher lows since May 23 and higher highs since early July, indicating bullish control [1][2] - Recent price action has become less orderly, with a slight close below the bull channel and significant intraday movements, but the SPX managed to close above the 50-day moving average [2][8] Earnings Season and Economic Data - The earnings season has concluded, and the SPX is up 23 points from its October 1 close of 6,711, despite the government shutdown from October 1 to November 13 [4] - The highest close during the shutdown was 179 points above the October 1 level, while the lowest was 159 points below, indicating volatility but little net directional movement [5] Technical Indicators - The SPX is currently wedged between support from the 50-day moving average and previous intraday lows in the 6,630-6,650 range, with the lower boundary of the bull channel around 6,760 [9][8] - The flattening of the 30-day moving average suggests potential resistance at the 6,760 level, which is also 10% above the February 2025 high [8] Upcoming Events and Expectations - Key upcoming events include Nvidia (NVDA) earnings and reports from major retailers such as Home Depot (HD), Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT) [9] - Economic reports on employment and inflation are expected in the next two weeks, which will influence the Federal Open Market Committee's decisions regarding potential rate cuts [10] Market Sentiment - There has been a decline in expectations for a rate cut, with a 44% probability assigned at Friday's close, down from 67% the previous week, yet the SPX has remained resilient [11] - The optimism among option buyers has decreased, with the 10-day buy-to-open put/call volume ratio rising from 0.42 to 0.51, indicating lower expectations despite stable stock levels [12][13] Options Market Dynamics - Significant open interest in puts and calls around the 6,700 and 6,750 strikes suggests potential pinning action, with the 6,750 strike acting as resistance [16]

Core Insights - The 2025 holiday season is expected to be challenging due to widespread layoffs, inflation, high debt levels, and stagnant wages [1] - Observing megatrends can provide valuable insights into investment opportunities as society and technologies evolve [1] - The importance of fundamentals, quality of leadership, and product pipeline is emphasized for uncovering investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The economy is facing threats from various factors, leading to a gloomy outlook for the holiday season [1] - High debt levels and stagnant wages are contributing to economic challenges [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Focusing on macrotrends, futurism, and emerging technologies is crucial for identifying potential investment opportunities [1] - The evaluation of startups and emerging industries is part of the investment analysis process [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 holiday season is expected to be challenging due to widespread layoffs, inflation, high debt levels, and stagnant wages, which may negatively impact the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The combination of economic factors such as layoffs and inflation is likely to weigh down consumer spending during the holiday season [1] - The current economic climate suggests a potential downturn, contrasting with previous market booms [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Emphasis on observing megatrends and technological advancements can provide insights into future investment opportunities [1] - Importance of focusing on fundamentals, quality of leadership, and product pipelines when evaluating investment prospects [1] - Recent focus has been on marketing and business strategy for medium-sized companies and startups, indicating a shift towards evaluating emerging industries and technologies [1]