Russia’s coal industry has slipped into crisis under the weight of high borrowing costs and sanctions https://t.co/S4GY2arqOR ...

Investment Rating - The industry view for Greater China Materials is rated as Attractive [3] Core Insights - Copper, aluminum, and gold are expected to remain at elevated levels, while supply cuts in steel and cement are anticipated in the second half of the year [1] - Morgan Stanley's commodity forecasts indicate a divergence from consensus, with higher price expectations for aluminum and copper compared to market consensus [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Commodity Price Forecasts - Aluminum price forecast for 2H2025 is $2,700 per ton, which is 10% higher than consensus [7] - Copper price forecast for 2H2025 is $9,825 per ton, 5% above consensus [7] - Gold price forecast for 2H2025 is $3,650 per ounce, 13% higher than consensus [7] Steel and Cement Demand - Steel demand drivers include residential property (14%), infrastructure (17%), and machinery (30%) [13] - Anticipated supply cuts in steel and cement are expected to impact market dynamics in the second half of the year [1] Consumption Indices - The China Steel Consumption Index shows a year-on-year change indicating fluctuations in demand across various sectors [14] - The China Copper Consumption Index reflects significant contributions from power (47%) and white goods (15%) sectors [17][19] - The China Aluminum Consumption Index indicates property and passenger vehicle sectors as major demand drivers [23] Infrastructure Spending - Infrastructure spending has increased, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% in May 2025 [30] - Monthly total issuance of local government special bonds shows a trend towards increased funding for infrastructure projects [37] Key Companies Under Coverage - Companies covered include Baosteel, Jiangxi Copper, Zijin, and China Hongqiao among others in the materials sector [5]

India's milder summer is good news for millions after the scorching temperatures of recent years, but it's adding to Coal India's troubles, writes @rajeshsing13 https://t.co/EuV8RK5HiF ...

India is urging its coal producers to improve fuel quality amid ongoing complaints from the power sector, which sometimes receives shipments that don’t meet agreed specifications https://t.co/8bCeD4e7yB ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is cautious [7]. Core Insights - Thermal coal prices remained unchanged with QHD 5500 at Rmb660/t, CCI 5500 at Rmb615/t, and BSPI at Rmb663/t as of June 27 [7][10]. - Coking coal prices saw a slight increase, with Liulin No. 4 mine-mouth price up 0.9% WoW to Rmb565/t [2][10]. - Inventory destocking continued, with QHD inventory decreasing 2.2% WoW to 5.65 million tons [2][7]. - Elevated rainfall in June, exceeding 1,000mm, may support hydro power generation recovery, potentially reducing thermal coal demand [3][7]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - QHD 5500 kcal/kg thermal coal price remained flat at Rmb660/t, while CCI 5500 kcal/kg was at Rmb619, showing a 0.7% increase WoW [7]. - Seaborne prices for NEWC thermal coal were flat at US$107/t, down 16.4% YTD [7]. - Coking coal prices remained stable for FOR at Rmb1,130/t and QLD at US$179/t [2][7]. Inventory Levels - QHD inventory decreased by 2.2% WoW to 5.65 million tons, marking a 14% decrease YTD [2][7]. - Bohai Rim ports inventory also saw a decline of 2.1% WoW to 28.2 million tons [2]. Weather Impact - China's average precipitation in June reached over 1,000mm, which could positively impact hydro power generation and negatively affect thermal coal demand [3][7]. Company Ratings - China Shenhua Energy has an Overweight rating, while Yankuang Energy Group Co Ltd has an Underweight rating [58].

Group 1 - Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) is an agro-industrial company with a current year earnings estimate revised downward by 12.5% over the last 60 days [1] - Barings BDC, Inc. (BBDC) is an investment company with a current year earnings estimate revised downward by 4.6% over the last 60 days [1] - Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) is a metallurgical and thermal coal company with a current year earnings estimate revised downward by 44.4% over the last 60 days [2]

Company Overview - Ramaco Resources (METC) shares increased by 6.1% to close at $12.2, with a notable trading volume, reflecting a 26.2% gain over the past four weeks [1] - The company is well-positioned due to its high-quality met coal production, primarily utilized in steel making, supported by robust infrastructure and a diversified customer base [2][3] Financial Performance - Ramaco is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.25 per share, a significant year-over-year decline of 412.5%, with revenues projected at $129.29 million, down 16.8% from the previous year [4] - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a lack of upward earnings estimate revisions [5] Competitive Advantage - The company's favorable reserve geology allows for low cash production costs per ton, providing a competitive edge in the market [3] - Ramaco's extensive experience in acquiring, developing, financing, and operating coal assets enhances its operational efficiency and long-term value [3] Industry Context - Ramaco Resources is part of the Zacks Coal industry, where another company, Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), has seen a 0.4% increase in its stock price, but has returned -2.4% over the past month [5] - Alliance Resource Partners is expected to report an EPS of $0.61, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 22.8% [6]

Germany’s Jänschwalde coal plant was on track to be converted to natural gas — until the local heritage office declared it a national monument. https://t.co/mb0cRQv5iu ...

Group 1: Smith & Wesson Brands - Smith & Wesson Brands is currently trading at $8.66, with a 52-week range of $8.38 to $16.85 and a dividend yield of 6.00% [2] - The company faces significant headwinds, including tariffs and revenue deleveraging, which have negatively impacted margins and led to insufficient income to cover the dividend [2][3] - The payout ratio is projected to exceed 150% by the end of fiscal 2025, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dividend [2][3] - Analysts have a consensus rating of Moderate Buy, but sentiment is declining, and the price target is falling, indicating potential further downside risk [4] Group 2: SunCoke Energy - SunCoke Energy is trading at $8.18, with a 52-week range of $7.47 to $12.82 and a dividend yield of 5.86% [6] - The company has headwinds from weaker coal prices; however, its dividend payment is considered safe due to long-term contracts that guarantee cash flow [6][7] - The payout ratio is expected to be around 70% in 2025, which is sustainable for the business [6] - A recent acquisition of Phoenix Global is anticipated to positively impact revenue and profitability, diversifying SunCoke's business [7] - MarketBeat tracks one analyst rating this stock as a Buy, with a price target over 65% above current trading levels, supported by strong institutional ownership [8] Group 3: Tronox Holdings - Tronox Holdings is trading at $5.67, with a 52-week range of $4.35 to $17.45 and a dividend yield of 8.82% [10] - The company reported a net loss for the previous fiscal year, but analysts believe it is at a turning point due to shifts in demand for TiO2 pigments [10][12] - The consensus rating among eight analysts is Moderate Buy, indicating potential for a 50% upside, with recent upgrades from JPMorgan raising the price target to $7 [11] - Tronox's balance sheet is strong enough to sustain the dividend until business conditions improve, with expectations of positive earnings by the end of the fiscal year [12]

Germany’s Jänschwalde coal plant was on track to be converted to natural gas — until the local heritage office declared it a national monument. https://t.co/GQiau8g26x ...