Core Viewpoint - American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on March 6, with a focus on revenue growth and enrollment trends across its segments [1]. Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, APEI's earnings per share (EPS) exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 300%, while revenues fell short by 0.3%. Year-over-year, revenues increased by 1.5% and EPS rose by 100% [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter EPS is stable at 54 cents, indicating a 15.6% decrease from the previous year's EPS of 64 cents. Revenue estimates are pegged at $161.6 million, suggesting a 5.7% year-over-year rise [3]. Enrollment and Revenue Growth - APEI's fourth-quarter revenues are anticipated to increase due to strong performance across all segments, particularly in the American Public University System (APUS) and Hondros College of Nursing (HCN) [4]. - APUS is expected to see total net course registrations grow by 4% to 6%, driven by military-affiliated programs. HCN's enrollment is projected to rise by 19% to 3,700 students, while Rasmussen University (RU) is expected to have a 4% increase in student enrollment to 14,600 [6]. Segment Revenue Expectations - For the fourth quarter, revenues in the APUS and HCN segments are expected to increase by 2.8% to $81.6 million and by 20.6% to $19 million, respectively. RU segment revenues are predicted to grow by 5.4% to $55.4 million [7]. Margin and Income Projections - APEI is expected to report net income between $9 million and $11 million, down from $11.5 million a year ago, translating to EPS between 47 cents and 56 cents [9]. - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $23 million and $26 million, compared to $25.7 million a year ago, with adjusted EBITDA margins expected to decline by 70 basis points to 16.1% [9]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for APEI, as the Earnings ESP stands at 0.00% and the company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [10][11].

Core Insights - Pearson and Amazon Web Services (AWS) are expanding their collaboration to enhance AI-powered learning experiences globally [1][2][3] - The partnership aims to address learning gaps and improve workforce adaptability, with Pearson's research indicating that inefficient career transitions cost the U.S. economy $1.1 trillion annually [2][4] - AWS will continue to provide strategic AI and cloud support to Pearson, focusing on personalized learning and real-time insights [3][5] Company Collaboration - The collaboration builds on a 13-year relationship, with AWS enhancing Pearson's infrastructure and AI capabilities to scale its products, particularly in higher education [3][5] - Pearson plans to utilize AWS's cloud infrastructure and Amazon Bedrock to optimize learning products and services, especially for higher education and English-language learning [5][6] - The partnership will also extend to workforce skilling efforts, including programs like GEDWorks and digital credentialing through Credly by Pearson [6][7] Technology and Innovation - The collaboration aims to leverage cloud and AI tools to personalize education and provide real-time insights for millions of learners [5][6] - AWS and Pearson will jointly innovate on transformative learning solutions, focusing on clinical assessments, enterprise learning, and English language learning [6][7] - The goal is to empower individuals and organizations to develop future-ready skills in a rapidly evolving world [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2024, revenue increased by 8% and operating income increased by 26%, resulting in almost 200 basis points of operating margin expansion [6] - Adjusted earnings per share grew by 31% for the year to $4.87 [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In US higher education, revenue increased by 5% for the year, but decreased in the fourth quarter due to higher scholarships and a shift towards employer-affiliated students [8] - The Australia and New Zealand segment saw revenue growth of 11% on a constant currency basis, driven by enrollment growth and higher revenue per student [9] - The education technology services segment achieved record revenue growth of over 30% to exceed $100 million, with operating income increasing by almost 50% [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - US higher education average total enrollment grew by 6% in 2024, with employer-affiliated enrollment growing by 16% [7] - The Australia and New Zealand segment's average total enrollment grew by 5% for the year [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on productivity and disciplined cost management, which allowed expense growth to remain below revenue growth in US higher education [8] - The network of corporate partners is a major competitive strength, with over 70% of incremental total enrollment in US higher education coming through these partnerships [14] - The company plans to market more towards the domestic Australian market to counteract potential enrollment caps [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth potential, projecting mid-single-digit growth in US higher education and high single-digit growth in Australia and New Zealand [41] - The company is monitoring the evolving political and regulatory environment in Australia, particularly regarding international student immigration [11][22] Other Important Information - The company generated approximately $217 million pretax cash from operations in 2024, with $128 million of distributable free cash flow remaining after expenses and dividends [15] - The company repaid a $61 million balance on its revolver and refinanced a $250 million revolver, ending 2024 with just under $200 million in cash and marketable securities [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Enrollment trends and growth expectations - Management noted that corporate partnership enrollment remains strong, and while growth may normalize to long-term trends, they expect fluctuations in quarterly performance [20] Question: Regulatory changes in Australia and New Zealand - Management explained that the proposed international student caps were replaced with a ministerial direction focusing on visa processing times, which may impact enrollment later in the year [22][25] Question: Impact of US government changes on business - Management indicated that they have a significant presence among federal government employees and are monitoring the situation as new political appointees are confirmed [27] Question: Adjusted operating expenses and future guidance - Management confirmed that the adjusted operating expense of $271 million in 2024 is expected to be appropriate for 2025, with some seasonality in marketing investments [38] Question: Revenue per student decline in US higher education - Management attributed the decline to a shift towards employer-affiliated students and higher scholarships, expecting revenue per student to remain stable in 2025 [54][55]