Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) achieved record customer deposits in Q2 2025, increasing by over $250 million year-over-year, indicating strong underlying demand and effective cash inflow management ahead of sailings [1][8] - The company reported a 6.5% year-over-year growth in net yields, surpassing guidance by 200 basis points, driven by extended booking windows and a focus on same-ship revenue growth [2][8] - CCL improved its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 3.7x from 4.1x, supported by record operating results and refinancing, enhancing its balance sheet and liquidity [3][8] Booking and Revenue Strategy - The increase in deposits reflects CCL's successful strategy of extending the booking window, allowing for better yield management and pricing optimization as sailings approach [2] - Upcoming product catalysts, including a new private destination in the Caribbean, are expected to further boost deposits and enhance revenue visibility [4] Competitive Landscape - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) reported strong forward bookings for 2025, with both volume and pricing exceeding last year's levels, contributing to higher advance cash collections [5] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) also noted record Advanced Ticket Sales (ATS) of approximately $4 billion, indicating robust demand and serving as a strategic funding source for debt reduction [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - CCL's stock has increased by 32.1% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 13.4% [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for CCL stands at 14.04X, significantly lower than the industry average of 18.63X, suggesting potential undervaluation [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a year-over-year earnings increase of 41.6% for fiscal 2025 and 14.1% for fiscal 2026, with EPS estimates having risen in the past 60 days [11]

Group 1 - Carnival (CCL), Elbit Systems (ELBT), and Century Aluminum (CENX) are highlighted as stocks to watch due to analysts increasing profit expectations for these companies [1] - Carnival and Century Aluminum have reached buy zones, indicating potential investment opportunities [1] - Century Aluminum has achieved a Relative Strength Rating of 90-plus, marking it as an elite performer in the market [2]

Group 1: Analyst Recommendations - Carnival currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.58, indicating a position between Strong Buy and Buy, based on recommendations from 26 brokerage firms [2] - Of the 26 recommendations, 18 are Strong Buy and one is Buy, accounting for 69.2% and 3.9% of all recommendations respectively [2] - Despite the positive ABR, relying solely on this information for investment decisions may not be advisable, as studies show brokerage recommendations often lack success in guiding investors towards stocks with high price appreciation potential [5][10] Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Analysts from brokerage firms tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, issuing five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][10] - This misalignment of interests can lead to a lack of insight into a stock's future price movement, suggesting that investors should use this information to validate their own analyses [7] - The Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, is recommended as a more effective indicator of stock price performance, categorizing stocks based on earnings estimate revisions [8][11] Group 3: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - Zacks Rank and ABR are different measures; ABR is based solely on brokerage recommendations, while Zacks Rank utilizes earnings estimate revisions [9] - The Zacks Rank is timely and reflects current business trends, whereas ABR may not be up-to-date [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival has increased by 0.2% over the past month to $2.01, indicating growing optimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [13] Group 4: Investment Outlook for Carnival - The recent change in the consensus estimate, along with other factors, has resulted in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for Carnival, suggesting a positive outlook for the stock [14] - The Buy-equivalent ABR for Carnival may serve as a useful guide for investors, complementing the insights provided by the Zacks Rank [14]

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) are both experiencing growth driven by strong demand and strategic initiatives, with Carnival recently reaching a new 52-week high, indicating investor confidence in its recovery momentum [1][6] - Investors are evaluating which stock presents a better opportunity for exposure to the cruise recovery [1] Carnival Corporation (CCL) - Carnival is transforming into a destination-led cruise model, investing in exclusive private islands and modern ships, which has resulted in a 6.5% year-over-year yield increase in Q2 and the highest EBITDA margins in nearly two decades [2][5] - The launch of Celebration Key is expected to host over 2 million guests annually, enhancing customer loyalty and increasing yields [3] - Ongoing fleet upgrades through the AIDA Evolution initiative and new Excel-class ships are designed to improve guest satisfaction and expand family-friendly offerings [4] - Financially, Carnival has prepaid $350 million in debt, refinanced $7 billion, and improved its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 3.7x, nearing investment grade status, with record customer deposits supporting future cash flow [5][28] - Carnival's stock has surged 50.8% in the past six months, outperforming NCLH's 32.9% and broader market gains [9][19] - The company is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 14.20, below the industry average, suggesting potential upside supported by improving earnings momentum [23] Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) - NCLH is advancing its "Charting the Course" strategy, focusing on balanced growth and premium offerings, with significant upgrades planned for Great Stirrup Cay, including a new waterpark expected to host over 1 million guests in its first year [7][8] - NCLH is expanding its luxury segment with new ship deliveries and strong bookings, targeting a 4% capacity CAGR through 2036 [9][10] - The company is implementing a multi-year cost efficiency program aimed at saving over $300 million by 2026, maintaining flat adjusted cruise costs for 2024 and 2025 [11] - However, NCLH faces near-term earnings pressure from foreign exchange volatility and softer demand for certain European itineraries, which may impact profitability [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NCLH suggests year-over-year sales and EPS increases of 6.1% and 12.6%, respectively [17] Comparative Analysis - Carnival's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.86 is significantly lower than NCLH's 5.21, indicating stronger financial flexibility [28] - Carnival has achieved its 2026 transformation targets ahead of schedule, while NCLH continues to face challenges related to FX volatility and European demand [29] - Overall, Carnival is positioned as the better investment choice due to its stronger execution and financial metrics [27][30]

Core Viewpoint - NCL Corporation Ltd. has successfully completed a cash tender offer for its outstanding senior secured notes and senior notes, with significant participation from noteholders [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tender Offer Results - The tender offer expired on September 12, 2025, with $903,079,000 of the $1,000,000,000 outstanding 2027 Notes tendered, representing 90.3% of the total [2] - For the 2026 Notes, $219,354,000 of the $225,000,000 outstanding amount was tendered, equating to 97.5% [2] Tender Offer Consideration - The tender offer consideration for the 2027 Notes was set at $1,005.51 per $1,000 principal amount, while the 2026 Notes were set at $1,003.30 per $1,000 principal amount [3][4] - Accrued and unpaid interest will also be paid to holders of validly tendered notes accepted for purchase [5] Conditions and Future Actions - The tender offer is contingent upon the successful completion of a new unsecured notes offering amounting to $2,050 million [7] - If at least 90% of the 2027 Notes are tendered, any remaining notes not tendered will be redeemed at the tender offer consideration plus accrued interest on September 18, 2025 [8] Company Overview - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. operates multiple cruise brands and plans to expand its fleet significantly by adding 13 new ships by 2036, increasing its capacity by over 38,400 berths [12]

Connectivity Performance - Starlink's Community Gateway on Royal Caribbean's Star of the Seas delivers 10 Gbps of symmetrical throughput [1] - The symmetrical throughput ensures high-speed connectivity for passengers and crew at sea [1]

17 June 2025, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Wismar: The cruise ship "Disney Adventure" is moored at the outfitting quay of the TKMS shipyard. After around seven years of construction, one of the world's largest cruise ships was pulled out of the shipbuilding hall on 19.04.2025. The coronavirus-related insolvency of the MV shipyard group in 2022 had significantly delayed the construction of the approximately 340-metre-long ship. The US shipping company Disney Cruise Line took over the ship from the insolven ...

Core Viewpoint - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. has increased its quarterly dividend by 33% to $1.00 per share following stronger-than-expected earnings and an optimistic full-year outlook [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported second-quarter earnings of $4.38 per share, exceeding the analyst consensus of $4.05 by over 8% and showing a 36% increase from $3.21 per share in the same quarter last year [3]. - Revenue for the second quarter rose by 10% year-over-year to $4.54 billion, slightly surpassing Wall Street's estimate of $4.54 billion [3]. Future Guidance - Royal Caribbean raised its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $15.41 to $15.55 per share, up from the previous forecast of $14.55 to $15.55, which is above the average analyst estimate of $15.39 and indicates approximately 31% earnings growth over 2024 [4]. - For the third quarter, the company forecasts adjusted EPS between $5.55 and $5.65, which is below the consensus estimate of $5.97, citing timing of operating costs and a temporary drag from the introduction of Star of the Seas [5]. Stock Performance - Following the announcement, RCL stock increased by 3.59% to $353.76 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Brokerage recommendations, particularly for Royal Caribbean (RCL), suggest a strong buy sentiment, but reliance solely on these recommendations may not be advisable due to potential biases and lack of predictive success [5][10][11]. Brokerage Recommendation Summary - Royal Caribbean has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.60, indicating a position between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 25 brokerage firms' recommendations [2]. - Out of the 25 recommendations, 17 are Strong Buy (68%) and 1 is Buy (4%) [2]. Zacks Rank Insights - The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock rating tool, provides a more reliable indicator of near-term price performance compared to ABR, as it is based on earnings estimate revisions [8][11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Royal Caribbean's current year earnings remains unchanged at $15.6, suggesting stable analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [14]. - Royal Caribbean currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious stance despite the favorable ABR [15].

Core Viewpoint - Carnival has significantly recovered from the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, showing strong performance and potential for future growth [1][5][12] Financial Performance - Carnival's revenue for fiscal 2025 second quarter reached $6.3 billion, with customer deposits at $8.5 billion and net yields up 7.2% year over year, all setting new records [6] - Operating income increased by 67% compared to Q2 2024, indicating effective expense management alongside revenue growth [6] - Despite a 222% increase in stock price over the past three years, shares remain 56% below pre-pandemic highs, requiring a 110% rise to reach those levels [2][9] Debt Management - Carnival's long-term debt peaked at $36.4 billion in fiscal 2023 but has been decreasing, with $27.3 billion remaining as of May 31 [5][7] - The company has refinanced $7 billion of debt in 2023, and credit rating agencies have upgraded Carnival's debt, reflecting improved financial health [8] Market Outlook - The cruise industry is expected to continue growing, driven by interest from younger customers and first-time cruisers, presenting significant opportunities for Carnival [10] - Analyst estimates project a 23% increase in Carnival's earnings per share from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027, although growth rates are expected to stabilize post-pandemic [11]