June 9, 2025 02:09 PM GMT Cross-Asset Spotlight | Global M Update Signals, Flows & Key Data A weekly summary of key cross-asset monitors, data, moves, and models tracking sentiment, fund flows, and positioning. Key highlights from last week: | | As of Jun | | Q2 2026 Forecast | | | Q2 2026 Return Forecast | | Volatility | Base Case | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 06, 2025 | Bear | Base | Bull | Bear | Base | Bull | | Return/Risk | | Equities | | | | | | Total Returns | | ...

文/梧桐数据中心 2025年1-5月，共计有29家公司登陆港交所，其中27家通过IPO方式上市，另有1家通过借壳SPAC上市（找钢集团-Ｗ），1家GEM转主板上市（比优集团），这两 家不纳入本次统计中。港股首发上市的27家公司的IPO中介机构包括23家券商、21家香港律师事务所、15家中国内地律师事务所、6家审计机构，其中，中金公司 保荐8单，位列第一，华泰国际6单、招银国际5单，位列二三；达维律所和通商律所分别占据香港、中国法律顾问之首，业务单数各5单；"四大"则包揽了近90%的 审计业务，安永、毕马威各9单，德勤、罗兵咸永道各3单。 一、保荐人业绩排名 2025年1-5月，共有23家保荐人为这27家香港IPO上市公司提供了保荐服务，其中联合保荐的拆开计算，各计1单。 榜单前三名： 第一名：中金公司（8单） 第二名：华泰国际（6单） 第三名：招银国际（5单） | 排名 | 保荐人 | 业务单数 | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 中金公司 | 8 | | 2 | 华泰国际 | 6 | | 3 | 招银国际 | 5 | | 4 1 | 中信证券 (香港) WOOD REE | | | 5 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - JPMorgan remains a top player in investment banking, ranking 1 in global IB fees, with total IB fees soaring 37% to $8.91 billion in 2024 after declines in 2023 and 2022 [1] - In Q1 2025, JPMorgan's IB fees grew 12% year over year to $2.18 billion, driven by strong advisory and debt underwriting activity [1][9] - Morgan Stanley's IB revenues rebounded 36% in 2024 to $6.71 billion and rose another 8% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in the sector [5] - Goldman Sachs continues to dominate the IB business, maintaining a top position in announced and completed M&As, despite an 8% year-over-year fall in IB revenues in Q1 2025 [6] Group 2: Market Outlook - Near-term IB prospects for JPMorgan are clouded by market turmoil and monetary policy ambiguity, with a cautious stance adopted on the investment banking outlook [2] - Economic uncertainty is expected to hurt JPMorgan's IB business in Q2 2024, with IB fees projected to decline in the mid-teens range year over year [2] - Despite challenges, JPMorgan's long-term outlook for the IB business remains strong, supported by a healthy IB pipeline and an active M&A market, with an estimated CAGR of 2.2% for IB fees by 2027 [3] Group 3: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - JPMorgan shares have risen 10.8% this year, outperforming Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan's 2025 earnings implies a decline of 7% year over year, with a rebound of 5.2% expected in 2026 [9][13] - JPMorgan currently trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 2.81X, slightly below the industry average [10]

Core Points - Major corporate leaders, including CEOs from Uber, Dell, and Goldman Sachs, are set to announce a collective investment of billions into "Trump accounts" for employees' children [1][2] - The investment commitment will be made during President Trump's "Invest America" roundtable event, which promotes a pilot program that deposits $1,000 from the government into investment accounts for newborn Americans [2] - The program, previously known as "MAGA Accounts," aims to establish index fund accounts with $1,000 in government funds for U.S. citizens born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028 [3] Corporate Participation - Notable participants in the roundtable include: - Michael Dell, CEO of Dell Technologies - Brad Gerstner, CEO of Altimeter Capital - Rene Haas, CEO of Arm Holdings - Parker Harris, CTO of Slack and cofounder of Salesforce - William McDermott, CEO of ServiceNow - Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber - David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs - Vladimir Tenev, cofounder and CEO of Robinhood [4] Legislative Context - The provision for creating these accounts has already passed the House as part of a significant budget bill, which is currently pending in the Senate facing opposition from fiscally conservative Republicans [2]

8 June 2025 | 5:43PM HKT China FX/Rates Monitor: CNY Appreciation Bias Post Trade De-escalation (Chen/Suwanapruti) Our monitor tracks the latest developments and identifies key indicators for China FX and rates, including valuations/policy stance, technicals, flows, and fundamentals. Below we summarize our key takeaways on the China FX and rates markets. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Danny ...

May 18, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea The Détente – What It Does and Doesn't Mean Following Monday's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, the response in risk markets has been resoundingly positive through the first four trading days. The S&P 500 is up 4.5% from last Friday's close, and year-to-date returns are back in the black after Liberation Day drove steep declines in April. Credit markets have also rallied notably, ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 4 June 2025 | 6:00PM HKT Hong Kong: Decoding the recent moves in HKD FX/Rates market Bottom line: USD/HKD spot hit the lower bound (strong side) of the band (7.75) in early May amid broad USD weakening (and the very sharp appreciation of the Taiwan Dollar specifically). This prompted Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervention to sell HKD and buy USD, more than tripling interbank liquidity in Hong Kong. The surge in interbank liquidity led to a sharp drop in front-end HK ...

J P M O R G A N Global Emerging Markets Research 05 June 2025 Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy for 2H25 US policy uncertainty still drives EM: move OW EM FX, stay UW EM sovereigns, MW local rates and corporates Key topics Macro developments Top trading themes See page 54 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that co ...

Key Takeaways GS retains the top spot in announced and completed M&A deals in 1Q25 despite sector headwinds. Goldman has exited consumer finance to refocus on high-margin IB and trading businesses. GS's IB revenues fell 8% y/y, but a strong advisory backlog signals potential recovery ahead.The Goldman Sachs Group (GS) reaffirmed its dominance by maintaining its long-standing top position in announced and completed mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the first quarter of 2025. This underscores the firm’s end ...

4 June 2025 | 5:54PM EDT What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: Fiscal policy focus, ECB projections, US jobs report This week: Transcript Fiscal policy focus We continue to expect the budget reconciliation bill currently making its way through Congress will have only a modest impact on the US fiscal balance relative to current policy. Similarly, we think that the corporate provisions in the bill will have only modest direct impacts on S&P 500 earnings and cash flows. Specifically, we estimate that the provi ...