Forecasts from executives this week suggest record trading revenues and big investment banking fees ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has implemented its third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut this year, which is expected to support a resurgence in deal-making activity and potentially boost investment banking fees for Morgan Stanley [1][4]. Investment Banking Activity - Morgan Stanley's investment banking (IB) revenues reached $5.2 billion in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase, driven by a wave of deal-making and initial public offerings [3][10]. - The improving environment is supporting strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and renewed financing activity, with CEO Ted Pick indicating that IB activity is likely to continue rising over the next couple of years [3][10]. Market Conditions - The Fed's latest rate cut is anticipated to lower financing costs, encouraging companies to revive delayed M&A and capital-raising plans, which typically boosts deal pipelines and IPO readiness [4]. - A healthy IB pipeline and an active M&A market position Morgan Stanley to capitalize on the improving macroeconomic backdrop, although the benefits may be frontloaded due to the Fed signaling a pause in further rate cuts [5]. Peer Performance - Other major investment banking firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are also expected to benefit from the macro tailwind of lower borrowing costs, with JPMorgan's IB fees rising to $7.3 billion (12.3% year-over-year growth) and Goldman's IB fee revenues totaling $6.8 billion (19.1% year-over-year growth) in the first nine months of 2025 [6][7][8]. Stock Performance - Morgan Stanley's shares have gained 43.4% this year, outperforming the industry's growth of 35.4% [9].

Market Overview - The Dow and S&P 500 indexes advanced 1.3% and 0.2%, respectively, reaching all-time high closings, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% [1] - Market participants are shifting from technology to rate-sensitive cyclical sectors such as utilities, industrials, financials, energy, materials, and health care due to the recent Fed rate cut and high valuations in the tech sector [2] Recommended Stocks - Five non-tech large-cap stocks are recommended, currently trading below their 52-week highs and at attractive valuations: On Holding AG (ONON), Lennar Corp. (LEN), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF), Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC), and Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI) [3][9] On Holding AG (ONON) - On Holding specializes in footwear and sports apparel, offering products through various channels [6] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 20.6% and 79.3%, respectively, with a 22% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [7] Lennar Corp. (LEN) - Engaged in homebuilding and financial services, focusing on tech-enabled manufacturing to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [8] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 1.9% and 11.1%, respectively, with a 0.2% improvement in earnings estimates over the last week [10] Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) - Gained market share in investment banking without significantly expanding its balance sheet, which is expected to drive top-line growth [11] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 16.5% and 59.5%, respectively, with a 0.8% improvement in earnings estimates over the last week [13] Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) - Operates a diverse portfolio in traditional and digital marketing, enhancing revenue stability [14] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 3.1% and 8.8%, respectively, with a 2.4% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [16] Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI) - A leading provider of information and technology across various sectors, including law, tax, and financial services [17] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 7.6% and 12.4%, respectively, with a 2.1% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [18]

JEFFERIES NOTICE: Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Investors are Notified of Securities Fraud Investigation and to Contact BFA Law if You Suffered LossesDecember 12, 2025 8:36 AM EST | Source: Bleichmar Fonti & AuldNew York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - December 12, 2025) - Leading securities law firm Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP announces an investigation into Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: JEF) and Point Bonita Capital for potential violations of the federal securities laws after SEC ...

If you've been reading my articles for the past couple of years, you might have heard that I've been buying up a lot of preferred equity. Preferred equity is a bit differentRida Morwa is a former investment and commercial Banker, with over 35 years of experience. He has been advising individual and institutional clients on high-yield investment strategies since 1991. Rida Morwa leads the Investing Group High Dividend Opportunities where he teams up with some of Seeking Alpha's top income investing analysts. ...

This story was originally published on CFO.com. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO.com newsletter. Global M&A activity returned in force in 2025, revealing new patterns that every finance team and CFO will need to understand as they approach 2026. Total global deal value is on track to reach $4.8 trillion, which would be the second-highest total on record, according to a new report from Bain and Company. The data shows a market that is active again with clearer pricing sign ...

Core Viewpoint - Stifel projects a 9% upside for the S&P 500 in 2026 if the US economy remains stable, but warns of a potential 20% decline in the event of a recession [1][2] Economic Outlook - A recession is not the base case for Stifel or other major banks, with a 25% chance assigned to a downturn occurring next year [2] - The Federal Reserve has increased its growth forecast for 2026, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook [2] Labor Market Concerns - The labor market shows signs of instability, with rising unemployment and layoffs, which could lead to reduced consumer spending [3] - Consumer spending accounts for 68% of GDP, making its decline a significant concern for economic health [3] Stock Valuation Risks - Current stock valuations are historically high, with median pullbacks during recessions averaging 20% and average drops at 23% since World War II [4] - The S&P 500 is considered expensive, and P/E ratios may become critical in a downturn [4] Speculative Assets and Market Behavior - In the event of a bear market, speculative assets are expected to decline first, followed by the broader market [5] - A basket of seven highly-volatile stocks has already seen significant declines, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5] Defensive Investment Recommendations - Despite a positive base case for the S&P 500, Stifel recommends building hedge positions with defensive stocks [6] - Suggested funds for exposure to defensive assets include Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), and iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) [6]

Group 1 - The iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF (TFLO) is a fixed income fund that focuses on providing transparency and analytics in capital markets instruments and trades [1] - Binary Tree Analytics (BTA) has over 20 years of investment experience and aims to deliver high annualized returns with a low volatility profile, focusing on CEFs, ETFs, and Special Situations [1] Group 2 - The article expresses a beneficial long position in TFLO through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [2]

Asia Insights Economics - Asia ex-Japan China: The Politburo sounded more concerned about the economy China's Ruling Party Politburo convened today and issued a memo after the meeting. The memo sets the tone for the forthcoming annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will outline Beijing's macroeconomic policy agenda for 2026. The memo reintroduced "counter-cyclical" policy adjustment, which was absent from the most recent Politburo meeting in July 2025 , signaling Beijing's renewed concerns a ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Tesla's stock from "Overweight" to "Equal-Weight" while raising its target price to $425 from $410, marking the first downgrade in two years [1][2] Group 1: Downgrade Context - The downgrade was made by Andrew Percoco, who has taken over coverage from Adam Jonas, a long-time Tesla bull [2] - The decision reflects concerns about Tesla's automotive business, with expected cumulative volume growth projected to be 18.5% lower through 2040 due to slower adoption in the U.S. and increased competition globally [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition from Chinese EV manufacturers is intensifying, with potential to significantly impact Tesla's U.S. sales if tariffs on imports from China were not in place [4] - The U.S. EV industry is anticipated to experience a more prolonged slump than previously suggested by Elon Musk [4] Group 3: Non-Automotive Business Concerns - Percoco believes that Tesla's non-automotive initiatives, such as autonomous driving and the Optimus humanoid robot, are already priced into the stock [5] - Execution risks are highlighted, as Tesla has not achieved significant success since the Model Y, and the Cybertruck has not gained market traction [5] Group 4: Self-Driving Technology Challenges - Tesla's camera-only approach to self-driving offers cost advantages over competitors like Waymo, but the company must demonstrate a high level of safety to gain regulatory trust, especially in adverse weather conditions [6] - Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) software has faced challenges in extreme weather, raising concerns about its reliability [6]