Financial Performance - Q2 2025 - Orders increased by 8% and revenue increased by 5% compared to Q2 2024[19] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 3%, but the margin decreased by 40 bps year-over-year[19] - Adjusted EPS decreased by 4% year-over-year, following a 22% increase in Q2 2024[19, 21] - Free cash flow is down year-over-year, but up 13% year-to-date[24] - The company has total available liquidity of $3.9 billion, including $1.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents[24] Segment Performance - Q2 2025 - Industrial Technologies and Services revenue was $1.4916 billion, up 1.7% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA of $427.2 million and a margin of 28.6%[25] - Precision and Science Technologies revenue was $396.3 million, up 17% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA of $116.8 million and a margin of 29.5%[33] M&A and Strategy - The company closed 11 transactions and acquired over $200 million in annualized inorganic revenue[17] - The company granted approximately $30 million in equity to approximately 6,400 new employees through the Ownership Works program in the last 18 months[13] Full Year 2025 Guidance - The company is raising its full-year guidance on revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS[8] - Full year revenue is expected to grow by 4-6%, with M&A contributing approximately $375 million or approximately 5%[39] - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $2.1 billion and $2.16 billion, representing a 4-7% year-over-year increase[39] - Adjusted EPS is expected to be between $3.34 and $3.46, representing a 2-5% year-over-year increase[39]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a divergence with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3600 points, but individual stocks showed weakness, indicating underlying complexities in market dynamics [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to have significant implications for global capital markets, with a high probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting is expected to reveal potential dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, which would be a rare occurrence since 1993 [3] - Market participants are closely monitoring Chairman Powell's statements for any dovish signals regarding a potential rate cut in September, particularly concerning economic risks and inflation [3] External Market Influences - U.S. stock indices experienced a pullback, with the Dow Jones down 0.46%, while European markets, particularly the German DAX, rose by 1.03% due to easing trade tensions [3] - The extension of a 24% reciprocal tariff suspension between China and the U.S. and the easing of high-end chip export restrictions are seen as positive developments for the semiconductor and AI sectors [3] A-share Market Dynamics - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of 1.82 billion yuan, reversing six consecutive days of net selling, with significant investments in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors, particularly in innovative drug companies [4] - There is a noticeable divergence in main capital flows, with some sectors like real estate and biopharmaceuticals seeing increased investment, while automotive and machinery sectors faced sell-offs due to disappointing consumer recovery [4] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index's stability above 3600 points is accompanied by a lack of strong buying momentum, as indicated by a low trading volume of 73.5 billion yuan in the first half hour [4] - The ChiNext Index showed a strong performance, breaking through 2400 points, driven by gains in the pharmaceutical and technology sectors [4] Policy Developments - A significant press conference is scheduled to announce new childcare subsidies and fertility support measures, which could provide a short-term boost to the maternal and educational consumption sectors [4] - Long-term investors are encouraged to focus on sectors with sustained policy benefits, such as innovative drugs and domestic AI computing capabilities [4] Investment Strategies - Short-term market fluctuations are expected to continue around the 3600-point mark, with three key areas of focus: semiconductor components, innovative drugs, and military industry due to rising expectations from the upcoming Zhuhai Airshow [5] - Long-term investors are advised to remain focused on the overarching themes of trade easing and corporate profit growth, regardless of short-term market volatility [5]

Brazil’s WEG, a provider of industrial machinery for global oil and power companies, said its clients are delaying long-term investments due to rising geopolitical tensions and new tariffs https://t.co/AxQ4PtL04N ...

Summary of the Multi-Industry Heatmap: 2Q25 Industry Overview - The report covers various industries, including electrical, machinery, marine, construction, healthcare, consumer, and technology sectors [3][4]. Key Findings 1. **Earnings Performance**: - Approximately 27% of the coverage and 10% of globally tracked companies reported by the end of the first week of 2Q25. - Mixed results were observed, with around 64% beating sales expectations, 78% beating margin expectations, and 67% beating Adjusted EBITA expectations. However, about 50% missed on orders and free cash flow (FCF) [3][8]. 2. **Sector Performance**: - Electrical companies outperformed machinery companies operationally. - Strong demand was noted in data centers, with companies like Legrand and Accelleron showing positive pre-release figures [3][4]. 3. **Geographical Trends**: - All regions (EU, Americas, China/Asia) indicated stability. - Specific sectors showed varied trends: Marine, EU/Americas construction, China healthcare, and Americas consumer sectors turned to growth, while tech, China construction, and U.S. consumer sectors declined [4][8]. 4. **Foreign Exchange Impact**: - Significant foreign exchange headwinds were noted across Nordic coverage, impacting margins. - Price/cost inflation was observed, with previous input costs still in inventory being unaffected by tariffs, although pricing had increased post-implementation. This situation may reverse in 2H25 as companies indicated challenges in offsetting tariffs entirely [3][4]. 5. **Stock Performance**: - Out of the 12 stocks that reported, 8 showed an increase on a weekly basis, including Accelleron and Legrand [3][8]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring foreign exchange impacts and pricing strategies in the context of tariff changes, which could affect future earnings and margins [3][4]. - The mixed earnings season suggests a cautious outlook for investors, particularly in sectors experiencing order and cash flow misses [3][8]. Conclusion - The 2Q25 earnings season has been characterized by a mix of strong sales and margin beats, but significant challenges remain in terms of orders and free cash flow, particularly in the machinery sector. The overall stability across regions and sectors provides a nuanced view for potential investment opportunities and risks moving forward [3][4][8].

Group 1 - The China Securities 2000 Index (562660) has increased by 0.80%, with notable gains from stocks such as Guanlong Energy (+20.00%) and Deepwater Planning Institute (+20.00%) [1] - The China Securities 2000 ETF (562660) has risen by 1.31%, reaching a latest price of 1.47 yuan, with a trading volume of 518.24 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.23% [1] - The latest scale of the China Securities 2000 ETF (562660) has reached 231 million yuan, marking a one-year high [1] Group 2 - The project "First Breakthrough of High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Main Equipment Forging" led by Shanghai Electric has successfully passed expert review, addressing high-performance requirements for main equipment forgings [2] - A series of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption have been introduced, enhancing market vitality [2] - CITIC Securities suggests that the A-share market is transitioning to an incremental market, with a focus on sectors that can create consensus among investors post mid-year report season [2] Group 3 - The China Securities 2000 ETF closely tracks the China Securities 2000 Index, which selects 2000 small-cap stocks with high liquidity, presenting a complementary style to large and mid-cap indices [3] - The index emphasizes "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" companies, with a high proportion of emerging industries such as machinery, electronics, and biomedicine, indicating significant growth potential [3] - The top ten constituent stocks account for less than 2% of the total weight, highlighting a notable risk diversification advantage [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Japanese export industry**, particularly focusing on the impact of US tariff policies on export values to North America and the diversification of export destinations by Japanese companies [2][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Export Diversification**: - Exports to Europe and the Middle East are increasing, compensating for the significant decline in exports to North America. This indicates a trend of Japanese exporters diversifying their markets in response to anticipated higher US tariffs [2][3]. 2. **Year-over-Year Export Trends**: - Japan's export value to the US, Canada, and Mexico has decreased notably, with a reported decline of **-25.3% YoY** for passenger vehicles. However, total export value remains nearly flat at **-0.5% YoY** due to growth in other regions [3][4][11]. 3. **Comparison with 2018**: - Current export trends differ from those observed in 2018 when the US raised tariffs. Real exports for April to June 2025 were nearly flat at **+0.1% QoQ**, with a solid **+3.2% MoM** increase in June [4][12]. 4. **Impact of Tariffs on Pricing**: - Many automakers have reduced export prices to absorb tariff impacts, with some companies imposing tariff surcharges. However, most are absorbing the tariffs without fully passing them on to customers [4][5][9]. 5. **Future Tariff Adjustments**: - As US-Japan trade negotiations continue, companies may adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding price adjustments. Once tariff rates are finalized, real exports to the US may gradually be affected [5][8]. 6. **Strong Performance in Specific Categories**: - Exports of batteries, metal products, and food items to the US have maintained positive YoY growth, indicating that export trends vary significantly by product category [9][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Adaptation**: A Japanese company exporting premium Omi beef has begun exporting to Dubai to reduce dependence on the US market, exemplifying the shift in export strategies [3]. - **Automotive Sector Challenges**: The automotive sector faces a projected sales volume decline of approximately **12%** if the current tariff on automobiles remains in place [8]. - **Export Value Statistics**: The export value growth by major destination shows significant declines for North America while other regions like the Middle East and Africa show strong double-digit growth [11][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Japanese export industry amidst changing tariff policies and market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the Korean market is currently underweight, reflecting lower valuations compared to peers and a need for earnings growth to broaden out [14][16]. Core Insights - The Korean market is characterized by its cyclical nature, heavily influenced by both the US and China markets, with a constant coupling and decoupling dynamic [11][32]. - The KOSPI index has shown significant sectoral performance variations, with IT and Financials leading the market, while other sectors like Materials and Consumer Discretionary have underperformed [20][23]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in domestic demand starting from the second half of 2025, with an expected GDP growth of 1.1% for the year [33][34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The KOSPI has experienced a year-to-date performance of 32.4% in 2025, recovering from a -9.6% performance in 2024 [18][26]. - Foreign investors have been net sellers in 2025 but have shown net buying activity since May [26][29]. Sector Analysis - The IT sector constitutes 36% of the KOSPI index and has performed well with a 32.4% increase year-to-date [20]. - The Financials sector has also shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 49.4% [20]. - In contrast, the Materials sector has seen a decline of 41.2% in 2024, indicating significant volatility [20]. Economic Indicators - The report highlights that Korea continues to trade at lower valuations compared to Japan and China, with a focus on improving return on equity (ROE) [14][16]. - The Bank of Korea has lowered the policy rate to 2.5% and is expected to implement a larger supplementary budget in the second half of 2025 [37][38]. Earnings Growth - Earnings growth needs to broaden out, with the current consensus operating profit growth for the KOSPI at 10.0% for 2025, which is below historical averages [23][44]. - The report notes that consensus earnings are being adjusted down, reflecting a cautious outlook for the upcoming periods [44][46].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to companies such as Caterpillar (CAT), CNH Industrial (CNH), and Cummins (CMI), while some companies like AGCO are rated "Neutral" [5][137]. Core Insights - The report suggests that global equipment markets may bottom in 2025, particularly for agricultural machinery, with a cautious optimism for recovery in truck and construction markets [12][18]. - The "Big Beautiful Bill" is viewed positively for machinery fundamentals, with provisions supporting equipment demand and domestic industrial activity [29][33]. - Tariff impacts are expected to have a significant influence on demand and margins, with potential upside for companies in the second half of 2025 as tariff rates stabilize [21][23]. Key Machinery Themes - Agricultural machinery has outperformed other sectors, attributed to a cycle trough in global demand [6]. - Machinery stocks are currently not pricing in tariff concerns, although demand uncertainty remains prevalent [8]. - The report anticipates a decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026 due to high new machine prices and elevated used inventories [16]. Construction - The outlook for non-residential construction spending remains stable, supported by mega project backlogs growing at a ~17% CAGR from 2024-2029 [38]. - Contractor profit margins have improved slightly, but project cancellations due to tariffs have increased significantly [45][48]. - The report expects global construction equipment sales volume to bottom in 2025, with a recovery anticipated in 2026 [50]. Mining and Oil & Gas - The mining equipment outlook is stable, with solid expectations for mining capex and miner EBITDA, driven by strong commodity prices [61]. - The oil and gas sector faces challenges with falling crude prices, leading to a weak near-term outlook for upstream spending [67]. NA Rental - The rental equipment market is expected to see steady growth, with total URI rental revenue growth projected at 4.0% in 2025 [73]. - The industry has consolidated, with the top 10 players now accounting for ~40% of the market, leading to better pricing discipline [78]. - NA rental penetration is above pre-pandemic levels, with specialty rental areas identified as key growth opportunities [80]. Ag Equipment - The US grain market is stabilizing but remains relatively depressed, with high new machinery prices impacting farmer sentiment [85][90]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026, with a potential recovery in 2027 [92]. - Positive trends are noted in Europe and South America, with expectations for growth in agricultural sales in those regions [95][98]. Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle market shows weak freight fundamentals, with spot rates remaining depressed [111]. - Class 8 tractor inventories are in reasonable shape, but overall market conditions suggest a weak outlook [113]. - The report indicates that pre-buying expectations for 2026 may be overly optimistic due to ongoing market weakness [120]. Short Cycle - Industrial PMIs have retreated, indicating a choppy macro backdrop, but there is cautious optimism for recovery in 2026 [126]. - Demand remains stable, but recent order traction may have been influenced by tariff pre-buying [128]. - Companies in the automation space are showing positive forward commentary, indicating potential growth despite uncertainty [131].

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 05 July 2025 Japan Equity Strategy Last-minute tariff negotiations and Upper House election: What if reciprocal tariffs of 35% take effect? Japanese equities might see a spike in short-term volatility next week, depending on the outcome of US-Japan trade negotiations. With the July 9 negotiation deadline fast approaching, the market expects 8–10 countries to reach an agreement with the US, but if the US and Japan fail to reach a deal and reciprocal tariffs on Japan ar ...

Investment Rating - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Cummins Inc. (CMI) are both rated as "Buy" with price targets of $418 and $431 respectively [6][7][14]. Core Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook on the sustainability of data center demand, projecting that CAT and CMI will deliver approximately 6-7 GW of backup generator supply this year, against an incremental data center computing capacity of around 13 GW [3]. - CAT is expected to benefit from turbine prime power sales, with CAT Titan 130 turbines specified in regulatory filings for various projects, potentially generating revenue of approximately $250-300 million based on 15 turbines [3]. - CMI is investing $150 million to expand its machining capacity, while CAT is investing over $700 million to upgrade its facilities, indicating high ROI potential for both companies [3]. Summary by Sections Data Center Demand and Supply - CAT and CMI are projected to supply around 6-7 GW of backup power, with data centers historically seeking to back up over 100% of their power needs [3]. - The estimated backup power requirements for 2025 range from 6.6 GW (50% coverage) to 15 GW (115% coverage) based on 13 GW of net data center additions [3]. Company Investments - CMI's investment of $150 million focuses on expanding machining capacity, while CAT's investment of over $700 million includes productivity improvements and facility upgrades [3]. - The report highlights CAT's emerging opportunity in turbine sales, with specific projects already incorporating CAT turbines [3]. Revenue Projections - The revenue from CAT turbines specified in regulatory filings is estimated to be around $250-300 million based on the number of turbines involved in various projects [3].