PresentationAll right. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to day 2 of the Jefferies Industrials Conference for the machinery sector. We're going to kick off this morning with Oshkosh. Very pleased to welcome Matt Field, the CFO; and Pat Davidson, who looks after Investor Relations to the podium here. So we'll have a few minutes of opening comments, I think, from Oshkosh. We'll do a little bit of a fireside chat with me, and then we'd love to have any questions from you guys that might be interesting as we ...

U.S. President Donald Trump reacts as he and the President of Poland Karol Nawrocki (not pictured) meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 3, 2025.The State Department first spoke to the Financial Times about the fund's strategy on Wednesday ."We are very troubled by the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund's decision, which appears to be based on illegitimate claims against Caterpillar and the Israeli government," a U.S. State Department spokesperson said in a Thursday em ...

Core Insights - A total of 1526 A-share listed companies disclosed their 2025 semi-annual reports, with 921 companies achieving year-on-year net profit growth, representing approximately 60.35% [1] - The electronic, transportation, agriculture, automotive, machinery, non-ferrous metals, home appliances, and social services sectors showed strong performance [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Among the 1526 companies, 761 reported net profit growth exceeding 10%, 501 exceeded 30%, 359 exceeded 50%, 210 exceeded 100%, and 66 exceeded 300% [1] - Notable companies with significant net profit growth include Shumatech, XianDa Co., Zhimingda, Rongzhi Rixin, Shijia Photon, and Suotong Development [1] - 567 companies reported net profits over 100 million yuan, 180 over 500 million yuan, 88 over 1 billion yuan, 19 over 5 billion yuan, and 8 over 10 billion yuan [2] - China Mobile, Kweichow Moutai, CATL, China Telecom, Sinopec, Industrial Fulian, Muyuan Foods, Huaneng International, and Luoyang Molybdenum were among the top net profit earners [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The electronic, transportation, agriculture, automotive, machinery, non-ferrous metals, home appliances, and social services sectors showed strong revenue performance [3] - In the electronic sector, companies in consumer electronics and semiconductors performed exceptionally well [3] - In agriculture, companies in breeding and animal health sectors showed significant performance improvements [3] - Muyuan Foods achieved revenue of 764.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and net profit of 107.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 952.92% [3] Group 3: Dividend Announcements - A total of 265 A-share listed companies announced their 2025 mid-term dividend plans [4] - 188 companies plan to distribute cash dividends exceeding 1 yuan per 10 shares, 77 companies exceeding 3 yuan, 38 companies exceeding 5 yuan, and 15 companies exceeding 10 yuan [4] - Notable companies with high cash dividends include JiBit, Ninebot, Shuoshi Bio, China Mobile, Dongpeng Beverage, Siwei Liekong, Dong'a Ejiao, and Aimeike [4] - Among the 265 companies, 111 plan to distribute over 100 million yuan, 77 over 200 million yuan, and 37 over 500 million yuan in dividends [4] Group 4: Specific Company Announcements - China CNR announced revenue of 1197.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.99%, and net profit of 72.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.48% [5] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 31.57 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a "slow bull" trend over the past month, with significant increases in major indices, particularly driven by the semiconductor industry and increased trading volumes [2][6][9]. Market Performance - On August 20, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3766.21 points, up 1.04% from the previous day, marking a continuous upward trend since July 9, when it first touched 3500 points [2]. - The index has risen from 3500 to 3700 points in just 28 trading days, with a total increase of 5.80% over the past month (July 21 to August 20) [2]. Index and Sector Performance - The electronic sector led the market with a remarkable increase of 25.42% over the past month, followed by the comprehensive and machinery equipment sectors, which rose by 17.45% and 17.05%, respectively [9][10]. - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index reached 40.74 trillion yuan, while the Shenzhen Composite Index reached 16.28 trillion yuan [5]. Trading Volume and Capital Inflow - A-share trading volume has significantly increased, with daily trading exceeding 2 trillion yuan for six consecutive trading days from August 13 to August 20 [6][12]. - Northbound capital trading volume has also risen, reaching 3170.90 billion yuan on August 20, accounting for 13.0% of the total trading volume for that day [12][13]. Key Stocks and Investment Trends - Major stocks attracting significant capital inflow include Huadian New Energy, which saw over 3 billion yuan in net inflow over the past 30 trading days, and technology companies like ZTE Corporation and GoerTek, benefiting from industry trends [12]. - The non-banking financial sector has shown an increase of 8.36%, while the banking sector has been the only financial sub-sector to decline in the past month [9].

Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - Deere's stock falls due to struggling farmers delaying machinery rebound [1] Financial Performance - Bloomberg Stock Movers report provides details on Deere's stock performance [1]

Group 1 - On August 11, among the 31 first-level industries, 24 industries received net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading at a net inflow of 1.724 billion [1] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows included non-ferrous metals (1.598 billion), electric equipment (1.597 billion), machinery (1.526 billion), defense and military (1.336 billion), banking (1.238 billion), and chemicals (0.827 billion) [1] Group 2 - A total of 2,088 individual stocks received net financing inflows on August 11, with 208 stocks having inflows exceeding 30 million [1] - Among these, 39 stocks had net inflows exceeding 100 million, with Zhongji Xuchuang leading at 471 million [1] - Other notable stocks with high net inflows included Dazhu Laser (447 million), Ningde Times (409 million), Shenghong Technology (350 million), Xinyisheng (325 million), Salt Lake Co. (308 million), China Shipbuilding (253 million), Shenghe Resources (214 million), and Northern Rare Earth (212 million) [1]

Core Insights - The Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) is designed to provide broad exposure to the Industrials sector, launched on December 16, 1998, and has become a popular choice among retail and institutional investors due to its low costs and tax efficiency [1][2] Fund Overview - XLI is sponsored by State Street Investment Management and has over $23.35 billion in assets, making it the largest ETF in the Industrials sector [3] - The ETF aims to match the performance of the Industrial Select Sector Index, which includes various industries such as aerospace, machinery, and logistics [4] Cost Structure - The ETF has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.08%, positioning it as one of the least expensive options in the market, with a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.28% [5] Sector Exposure and Holdings - XLI has a 100% allocation in the Industrials sector, with General Electric (GE) making up approximately 6.06% of total assets, and the top 10 holdings accounting for about 37.98% of total assets [6][7] Performance Metrics - The ETF has returned approximately 15.11% and is up about 22.94% year-to-date as of August 11, 2025, with a trading range between $116.42 and $154.99 over the past 52 weeks [8] - XLI has a beta of 1.07 and a standard deviation of 17.12% over the trailing three-year period, indicating a medium risk profile [8] Investment Alternatives - XLI holds a Zacks ETF Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong expected returns and favorable metrics compared to other ETFs in the sector [9] - Other ETFs in the Industrials space include the First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF (AIRR) and the Vanguard Industrials ETF (VIS), with AIRR having $4.55 billion in assets and VIS having $6.06 billion [11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Japanese Equities - **Key Themes**: The presentation discusses macroeconomic and microeconomic forces driving Japanese equities, including nominal growth, U.S. tariffs, political changes, corporate governance reforms, and industrial competitiveness in a multipolar world [1][5][6]. Core Insights 1. **Strong Nominal GDP Growth**: - Japan's nominal GDP is projected to grow significantly, with forecasts indicating a rise from 480 trillion yen in 1995 to 3,400 trillion yen by 2027 [9]. - Morgan Stanley's TOPIX forecast is set at 2,900 points as of June 2026, with a base case EPS growth of 185 million yen for December 2025 [10][12]. 2. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs**: - The U.S. tariffs and investment packages are influencing Japanese stocks, with a focus on the cumulative excess return on TOPIX for stocks sensitive to tariffs [27][30]. - Stock price gains post-U.S.-Japan tariff agreements have shown weak performance support, indicating potential volatility in the market [30][35]. 3. **Political Landscape Changes**: - The focus of uncertainty is shifting from external pressures, such as tariffs, to internal political dynamics, including public opinion on leadership and fiscal policies [47][51]. - The government fiscal balance is improving, which may influence future investment strategies [54]. 4. **Corporate Governance Reforms**: - Ongoing reforms are expected to enhance shareholder returns and capital efficiency, contributing positively to the market outlook [7][20]. 5. **Sector Preferences**: - A barbell strategy is recommended, focusing on export-oriented manufacturing and domestic demand-oriented non-manufacturing sectors [20]. - Specific sectors such as pharmaceuticals, IT services, and construction materials are highlighted for their growth potential [20][22]. Additional Important Insights - **Focus List Performance**: The focus list of stocks reflects a cautious view on large external demand stocks while being bullish on domestic demand growth stocks [22][23]. - **Market Dynamics**: The analysis includes cumulative fund flows, indicating a trend of net purchases in cash equities by overseas investors, suggesting a positive sentiment towards Japanese equities [42][46]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Upcoming government spending on infrastructure is anticipated, which may further stimulate economic growth and investment opportunities [61]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Japanese equity market.

Group 1 - Caterpillar Inc. is highlighted as a preferred machinery dividend growth stock, indicating its strong position in the market [1] - The author had to sell shares of Caterpillar to free up cash for a real estate investment, suggesting a strategic financial decision [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of in-depth research on various investment vehicles, including REITs and ETFs, which may appeal to income-focused investors [1]

Summary of Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum - July 28, 2025 Industry and Company Overview - **Industry**: US Economy and Financial Markets - **Key Participants**: Vishwanath Tirupattur (Chief Fixed Income Strategist), Michael Gapen (Chief US Economist), Michael Wilson (Chief Investment Officer), Todd Castagno (Head of Global Valuation), Brian Nowak (Lead US Internet Analyst), Angel Castillo (US Machinery & Construction Analyst), Jenna Giannelli (Head of Retail & Consumer Credit Research) Core Insights and Arguments - **US Economic Outlook**: - Revised expectations indicate slow growth and firm inflation, with real GDP growth projected at 0.8% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026 [45][45][45] - Inflation is expected to peak in Q3 2025, with fiscal policy presenting both upside risks and downside probabilities due to recent trade announcements [45][45] - **Impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)**: - The OBBBA is anticipated to provide meaningful benefits to corporate cash flows, with cash tax rates expected to reach historical lows due to accelerated expensing [45][45] - The act includes provisions for 100% bonus depreciation and immediate R&D expensing, which are expected to benefit sectors such as technology, healthcare, and industrials [11][45] - **Sector-Specific Insights**: - **Internet Sector**: Amazon is projected to capture approximately $15 billion annually in tax benefits, which could be reinvested into AWS, leading to significant automation savings [45][45] - **Machinery and Construction Sector**: Companies in this sector are likely to use OBBBA savings for buybacks and M&A rather than growth capex, with rental companies and R&D spenders being the biggest beneficiaries [45][45] - **Retail and Consumer Credit**: - The retail sector is expected to face further downside due to a projected demand slowdown in the second half of the year and additional tariff-induced margin pressures [29][45] - Credit performance has outperformed equities, but overall sector performance remains discerning [25][29] Additional Important Insights - **Employment and Inflation Trends**: - The civilian unemployment rate is projected to be 4.2% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, with inflation rates expected to stabilize around 2.6% to 2.8% [7][45] - **Market Resilience**: - The rebound in earnings revisions breadth is seen as a crucial driver for stock performance, overshadowing tariff and economic concerns [45][45] - **Tariff Impact**: - Tariff-induced risks to margins and earnings are skewed to the downside, with significant potential impacts on various companies' EBITDA projections [31][45] Conclusion - The overall sentiment from the forum indicates cautious optimism regarding the US economy, with specific sectors poised to benefit from legislative changes while others face challenges due to external pressures such as tariffs and changing consumer demand dynamics [45][45][45]