21 July 2025 | 4:34AM BST Multi-Industry Heatmap: 2Q25 so far Our Heatmap tracks sequential earnings acceleration/deceleration across various end markets. By the end of the first week of 2Q25 reporting season, c.27% of our coverage and c.10% of our globally tracked companies had reported. It has so far been a mixed earnings season for our coverage. While most companies have reported a beat on sales, margins and Adj.EBITA, c.50% of our covered companies have disappointed on orders and FCF. The electrical nam ...

July 21, 2025 07:38 PM GMT China Industrials | Asia Pacific Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower - Positive for Construction Machinery Key Takeaways According to a 19 July 2025 China Daily report, construction of Yarlung Zangbo dam was announced to have begun on July 19 with an estimated cost of at least Rmb1.2tn and annual capacity of 60-70GW, about three times of the Three Gorges dam at 22.5GW. We estimate total construction machinery demand for Yarlung Zangbo dam at c.Rmb120-180bn, with construction machinery accou ...

22 July 2025 | 7:39AM HKT NARI Technology (600406.SS): Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower project could boost LT EPS by c.4%+; Buy Nari as all-round beneficiary On July 19, 2025, China officially broke ground on the long-planned Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project, following the central government approval in December 2024. This marks the beginning of what is expected to be the world's largest hydropower development, both by scale (60GW+ power generation capacity) and investment (~Rmb1.2trn over c.15 years per a ...

Group 1 - Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) recently reached a new all-time high, with the stock price increasing by approximately 36% since the Q1 earnings report released on April 30, despite showing significant declines in earnings [1] - The stock's performance appears to defy logic given the steep decline in earnings reported [1] Group 2 - The analysis emphasizes a long-term investment approach, focusing on macro ideas through low-risk ETFs and CEFs [1]

中证 2000ETF 华夏（562660）紧密跟踪中证 2000 指数，该指数精选沪深两市 2000 只市值小、流 动性优的证券作为样本，呈现极致小盘风格，与大中盘指数形成互补。指数聚焦 "专精特新" 与民营实 体经济，机械设备、电子、医药生物等新兴产业占比高，成长潜力十足。前十大成分股权重占比不足 2%，风险分散优势显著。 截至2025年7月21日 10:18，中证2000指数（562660）上涨0.80%，成分股冠龙节能上涨20.00%，深 水规院上涨20.00%，安靠智电上涨19.99%，新余国科上涨15.58%，华自科技上涨14.20%。中证 2000ETF华夏（562660）上涨1.31%，最新价报1.47元。流动性方面，中证2000ETF华夏(562660)盘中换 手2.23%，成交518.24万元。规模方面，中证2000ETF华夏（562660）最新规模达2.31亿元，创近1年新 高。 消息面上，由上海电气上重铸锻有限公司承担的上海市高端智能装备首台突破专项《高温气冷堆核 岛主设备成套大锻件首台突破》项目，顺利通过上海市经信委专家组验收。该技术成功解决600兆瓦高 温气冷堆工程对主设备大锻件高性 ...

Japan Economics | Japan M Update Is Export Diversion Underway? While export value to North America has declined significantly, exports to Europe and the Middle East are growing, suggesting that some Japanese exporters may be diversifying their export destinations in anticipation of higher US tariffs. Key Takeaways July 17, 2025 02:15 PM GMT Exports to other regions offset the decline in North American exports: According to the June trade statistics (released June 17), Japan's export value to the US, Canada, ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential acquisition of Yangdian Technology by Hantang Cloud Intelligence, controlled by Nie Kunlin, is expected to create a new listed company in the intelligent computing sector in Sichuan [1][4]. Company Overview - Hantang Cloud Intelligence is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sichuan Hantang Cloud Information Technology Co., which is backed by state-owned enterprises from Sichuan, Ya'an, and Shenzhen [4]. - Hantang Cloud Information was established in December 2020 and has received multiple honors, including being recognized as a "Little Giant" enterprise and a national high-tech enterprise [4]. - The company operates over 4,000 server cabinets across several cities, including Beijing, Guangzhou, and Chengdu [4]. Share Transfer Details - The share transfer process involves two phases, with the first phase already completed and the second phase planned for after the lock-up period of the shares held by the current major shareholders [6][9]. - The second phase will see the transfer of 25,522,956 shares, representing 12.96% of the total share capital of Yangdian Technology, to Hantang Cloud Intelligence [9]. Financial Performance of Yangdian Technology - Yangdian Technology reported a significant increase in revenue, achieving 1.333 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 131.88% [11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 70.3446 million yuan, marking a staggering increase of 939.68% compared to the previous year [11][13]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company generated 327 million yuan in revenue, with a net profit of 15.1018 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 40% and 19.2%, respectively [11]. Industry Context - Sichuan ranks among the top provinces in China for computing power development, with intelligent computing expected to increase from 35% in 2024 to over 60% by 2027 [14]. - The China Ya'an Big Data Industrial Park, where Hantang Cloud Information is located, is a key hub for the big data industry in Sichuan, covering 542 acres with an investment of 15 billion yuan [14]. - Sichuan is recognized as a critical node in the "East Data West Computing" initiative, housing one of the top ten supercomputing centers globally and ranking seventh in the national computing power development index [14].

July 15, 2025 12:36 AM GMT Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch+ Joon Seok Equity Analyst Joon.Seok@morganstanley.com +82 2 399-4934 Heewon Choi Equity Analyst Heewon.Choi@morganstanley.com +82 2 399-4836 Minseo Kang Research Associate Minseo.Kang@morganstanley.com +82 2 399-4816 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to companies such as Caterpillar (CAT), CNH Industrial (CNH), and Cummins (CMI), while some companies like AGCO are rated "Neutral" [5][137]. Core Insights - The report suggests that global equipment markets may bottom in 2025, particularly for agricultural machinery, with a cautious optimism for recovery in truck and construction markets [12][18]. - The "Big Beautiful Bill" is viewed positively for machinery fundamentals, with provisions supporting equipment demand and domestic industrial activity [29][33]. - Tariff impacts are expected to have a significant influence on demand and margins, with potential upside for companies in the second half of 2025 as tariff rates stabilize [21][23]. Key Machinery Themes - Agricultural machinery has outperformed other sectors, attributed to a cycle trough in global demand [6]. - Machinery stocks are currently not pricing in tariff concerns, although demand uncertainty remains prevalent [8]. - The report anticipates a decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026 due to high new machine prices and elevated used inventories [16]. Construction - The outlook for non-residential construction spending remains stable, supported by mega project backlogs growing at a ~17% CAGR from 2024-2029 [38]. - Contractor profit margins have improved slightly, but project cancellations due to tariffs have increased significantly [45][48]. - The report expects global construction equipment sales volume to bottom in 2025, with a recovery anticipated in 2026 [50]. Mining and Oil & Gas - The mining equipment outlook is stable, with solid expectations for mining capex and miner EBITDA, driven by strong commodity prices [61]. - The oil and gas sector faces challenges with falling crude prices, leading to a weak near-term outlook for upstream spending [67]. NA Rental - The rental equipment market is expected to see steady growth, with total URI rental revenue growth projected at 4.0% in 2025 [73]. - The industry has consolidated, with the top 10 players now accounting for ~40% of the market, leading to better pricing discipline [78]. - NA rental penetration is above pre-pandemic levels, with specialty rental areas identified as key growth opportunities [80]. Ag Equipment - The US grain market is stabilizing but remains relatively depressed, with high new machinery prices impacting farmer sentiment [85][90]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026, with a potential recovery in 2027 [92]. - Positive trends are noted in Europe and South America, with expectations for growth in agricultural sales in those regions [95][98]. Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle market shows weak freight fundamentals, with spot rates remaining depressed [111]. - Class 8 tractor inventories are in reasonable shape, but overall market conditions suggest a weak outlook [113]. - The report indicates that pre-buying expectations for 2026 may be overly optimistic due to ongoing market weakness [120]. Short Cycle - Industrial PMIs have retreated, indicating a choppy macro backdrop, but there is cautious optimism for recovery in 2026 [126]. - Demand remains stable, but recent order traction may have been influenced by tariff pre-buying [128]. - Companies in the automation space are showing positive forward commentary, indicating potential growth despite uncertainty [131].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [5] Core Insights - June total excavator sales in China rose by 13% year-over-year (YoY), with a six-month increase of 17% [1][2] - Domestic sales increased by 6% YoY, with a six-month growth of 23%, surpassing market expectations of negative to flat YoY [1][5] - Export sales saw a significant rise of 19% YoY, with a six-month increase of 98%, exceeding expectations [1][2] - The machinery utilization rate was reported at 56.9% in June, down 7.5 percentage points YoY, which may impact sales outlook for July [1][5] - A modest recovery of 10-15% YoY in domestic sales is anticipated for 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Total excavator sales in June reached 18,804 units, marking a 13% increase YoY and a 3% increase month-over-month (MoM) [2] - Domestic sales accounted for 8,136 units, reflecting a 6% YoY increase but a 3% decrease MoM [2] - Export sales totaled 10,668 units, showing a 19% YoY increase and a 9% MoM increase [2] Market Expectations - The report indicates that the domestic sales growth is higher than market expectations, which anticipated a decline or flat performance [1][5] - The weak machinery utilization rate is a concern for future sales, particularly in the off-season of July [1][5] Future Outlook - The report projects a modest recovery in domestic excavator sales of 10-15% YoY for 2025, indicating a cautious but positive outlook for the industry [1]