National Vision (EYE) FY Conference Summary Company Overview - National Vision operates in the optical retail industry, offering three main products: eye exams, eyeglasses, and contact lenses [3][4] - The company is positioned as a low-cost provider in a fragmented market, which generated $70 billion in sales last year across 45,000 retail outlets [4][5] - National Vision has over 1,200 stores and reported $1.8 billion in sales last year [5][6] Key Points and Arguments Business Model and Market Position - National Vision emphasizes its value pricing strategy, catering to a demographic that is increasingly reliant on insurance for eye care [5][6] - The company has the largest collection of employed optometrists in the nation, which is expected to play a larger role in healthcare as demand for eye care services increases [5][6] Post-COVID Transformation - The company faced challenges post-COVID due to a reduction in the availability of medical professionals, impacting the ability to conduct eye exams [7][8] - National Vision implemented a remote medicine approach, allowing optometrists to conduct eye exams from home, which has improved efficiency [9][10] Strategic Initiatives - A new management team was brought in to lead a transformation focused on expanding target demographics, revising pricing strategies, enhancing customer experience, and optimizing cost structures [10][12] - The company aims to increase its addressable market by targeting managed care consumers, progressive lens users, and outside prescription consumers [17][18] Financial Performance - In Q1, National Vision reported a 5.7% increase in net revenue and a 21.8% increase in adjusted operating income [30][31] - The company raised its guidance for 2025, projecting a same-store sales growth of 1.5% to 3.5% and adjusted operating income between $81 million and $92 million [31][33] Marketing and Customer Engagement - National Vision is modernizing its marketing approach to better target its evolving consumer base, moving away from a one-size-fits-all strategy to a more personalized experience [26][27] - The company is enhancing its in-store experience and training staff to better engage with consumers who have insurance benefits [21][22] Product Assortment and Pricing - The company plans to increase the percentage of its frame assortment priced above $99 from 20% to 40% by the end of 2025, aligning with the purchasing power of its target demographic [23][24] - New premium brands are being introduced to attract higher-income consumers [24][25] Additional Important Insights - National Vision conducts over 7 million eye exams annually, with a significant portion of consumers engaging through their online platform [36] - The management team expresses confidence in the company's transformation and growth potential, highlighting a strong organizational culture and commitment to innovation [28][29][35]

Core Viewpoint - The "individual to enterprise" reform in Lianyungang's Ganyu District has effectively addressed the challenges faced by individual business owners in transitioning to corporate entities, resulting in 21 businesses achieving seamless upgrades this year [1][4]. Group 1: Service Improvements - Ganyu District has established a dedicated service window for "individual to enterprise" transitions, providing comprehensive guidance and assistance to address information asymmetry and procedural clarity [3]. - The district has implemented a "one-time completion" model for the transition process, allowing individual business owners to retain their original business names and social credit codes, ensuring a smooth administrative license change [3][4]. Group 2: Feedback and Continuous Improvement - The district's data bureau conducts follow-up calls to gather feedback from businesses that have undergone the transition, aiming to optimize the licensing connection mechanism and enhance service efficiency [4]. - The integration of various licenses, such as food and drug operating permits, into a single application process has been emphasized, promoting a streamlined service experience for individual business owners [4]. Group 3: Future Plans - Ganyu District plans to continue enhancing its "individual to enterprise" services by simplifying processes and improving service quality, with the goal of fostering market vitality and supporting high-quality regional economic development [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net revenue increased by 5.7% to $510 million, driven by adjusted comparable store sales growth of 5.5% [30][12] - Adjusted operating income rose by 21.8% to $41.3 million, with adjusted diluted earnings per share increasing to $0.34 from $0.29 [14][35] - Gross margin improved due to higher average ticket growth, with cost applicable to revenue decreasing by 30 basis points to 40.2% [32][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - America's Best comparable store sales grew by 5.9%, while Eyeglass World saw a 3.1% increase, marking its best quarter since 2021 [13][12] - All three target customer segments delivered double-digit comparable store sales growth, indicating strong performance across the board [12][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a shift towards higher-income customers, with managed care customers showing resilience amid economic challenges [58][11] - Customer transactions increased by 0.7%, recovering from previous declines, indicating a positive trend in customer engagement [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on segmentation, personalization, and digitization to enhance customer experience and drive sales [20][10] - A new strategy targeting underdeveloped customer segments aims to expand the addressable market and improve profitability [11][10] - The leadership transition is positioned to maintain momentum in the ongoing transformation strategy [6][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the transformation strategy, noting strong initial results from new initiatives [15][20] - The company is cautious about predicting consumer demand due to macroeconomic uncertainties but remains optimistic about its strategic direction [15][39] - Management highlighted the importance of cost efficiency measures in response to potential tariff impacts [38][40] Other Important Information - The company plans to open approximately 30 to 35 new stores while closing seven America's Best stores as part of its real estate management strategy [39][31] - Investments in remote exam technology and a new ERP system are expected to enhance operational efficiency [36][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected run rate for ticket growth in the coming quarters? - Management indicated that ticket expansion has been positive, with no degradation in conversion rates, suggesting further growth potential [48][50] Question: How is revenue growth split between managed care and customer pay? - Management noted that both segments are contributing to growth, with premium products appealing to managed care customers [51][52] Question: Can you provide insights on the traffic increase during the quarter? - The increase in traffic was attributed to better engagement with target customer segments, particularly managed care and progressive customers [97][98] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on product costs? - Management confirmed that tariffs could result in $10 million to $15 million in incremental costs, but they believe these can be mitigated through pricing actions [72][38] Question: How is the company addressing recruitment and retention of optometrists? - Management reported healthy retention rates and effective recruitment strategies, particularly among new graduates [82][81]

Financial Performance - Net revenues for Q1 2025 increased by 5.7% to $5103 million, compared to $483 million in Q1 2024[12, 16] - Adjusted comparable store sales growth was 55% in Q1 2025, driven by higher ticket prices and a slight increase in traffic[12, 18] - Adjusted operating income increased to $413 million in Q1 2025, compared to $339 million in Q1 2024[12, 23] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $034 in Q1 2025, compared to $029 in Q1 2024[12, 27] Store Network - The company's store count grew by 30%, ending the period with 1237 stores[20] - Nine new America's Best stores were opened, while nine Fred Meyer stores and three America's Best stores were closed[20] Brand Performance - America's Best saw adjusted comparable store sales growth of 59% in Q1 2025, compared to 12% in Q1 2024[21] - Eyeglass World experienced adjusted comparable store sales growth of 31% in Q1 2025, compared to -50% in Q1 2024[21] Financial Outlook for Fiscal Year 2025 - The company estimates net revenue between $1919 billion and $1955 billion for fiscal year 2025, including an estimated $35 million contribution from the 53rd week[44, 38] - Adjusted comparable store sales growth is projected to be between 15% and 35% for the 52 weeks ending December 27, 2025[44] - Adjusted operating income is expected to be between $81 million and $92 million, including an estimated $3 million contribution from the 53rd week[44, 43] - Adjusted diluted EPS is projected to be between $059 and $067, assuming approximately 79 million shares[44]

Company Overview - National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) is enhancing its foundation through leadership changes, expanded exam capacity, and strategic initiatives, with positive optical retail industry statistics indicating growth potential in upcoming quarters [1] - The company's America's Best brand is significantly contributing to revenue growth, capitalizing on the strength of managed care [1][3] Financial Performance - Year-to-date, National Vision's shares have increased by 4.4%, outperforming the industry decline of 3.1% and the S&P 500's fall of 14.3% [2] - The company has a market capitalization of $894.19 million and has consistently beaten earnings estimates over the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 79.29% [2] Industry Trends - The U.S. optical retail industry is experiencing consistent growth, driven by medical and recurring eye care purchases, with 82% of respondents using some form of vision correction according to a 2023 report by the Vision Council [5] - A WHO report from 2023 indicates that nearly 2.2 billion individuals globally have vision impairments, with 1 billion of these impairments unaddressed [5] Strategic Initiatives - National Vision is implementing several strategic changes, including the introduction of the Wide Buys promotion by America's Best to attract new customers and exclusive partnerships with eyewear brands [3][4] - The company is digitizing its operations, investing in a finance ERP system set to launch in Q2 2025 and a new Adobe CRM platform [7] Operational Challenges - National Vision's solvency position is concerning, with cash and cash equivalents of $73.9 million and short-term debt of $101.4 million, leading to a debt-to-capital ratio of 30% [9] - The company plans to take action on 43 stores through fiscal 2026 to strengthen its core business foundation [8] Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for National Vision's 2025 earnings per share remains at 55 cents, with projected revenues of $1.92 billion, reflecting a 2.2% improvement from the previous year [10]

Core Insights - Zacks Premium offers various tools to enhance stock market investment confidence and knowledge [1] - The Zacks Style Scores are designed to complement the Zacks Rank, providing additional stock ratings based on value, growth, and momentum [3][4] Zacks Style Scores - The Style Scores categorize stocks into four types: Value Score, Growth Score, Momentum Score, and VGM Score, each focusing on different investment strategies [4][5][6][7] - Value Score identifies undervalued stocks using financial ratios [4] - Growth Score assesses a company's financial health and future growth potential [5] - Momentum Score evaluates stocks based on price trends and earnings outlook [6] - VGM Score combines all three styles to provide a comprehensive rating [7] Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that uses earnings estimate revisions to help investors build winning portfolios [8] - Stocks rated 1 (Strong Buy) have historically produced an average annual return of +25.41% since 1988, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [9] - There are over 800 stocks rated 1 or 2, which can be overwhelming for investors [10] Investment Strategy - For optimal returns, investors should focus on stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B [11] - Stocks with lower ranks but high Style Scores may still face downward price trends due to poor earnings outlooks [12] Company Spotlight: National Vision Holdings, Inc. - National Vision is a leading optical retailer in the U.S. and has a solid position in the value segment of the optical retail industry [13] - The company is currently rated 3 (Hold) with a VGM Score of B and a Value Style Score of B, indicating attractive valuation metrics [13][14] - National Vision's forward P/E ratio is 23.66, and it has seen upward revisions in earnings estimates, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.54 per share for fiscal 2025 [14] - The company has an average earnings surprise of 79.3%, making it a noteworthy option for investors [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, sales increased by 3.9% to $437.3 million, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted comparable store sales [11][12] - Adjusted operating income rose to $3.2 million, while adjusted diluted earnings per share was a loss of $0.04 [13][61] - For the full year 2024, net revenue increased by 3.8% to $1.823 billion, with adjusted diluted earnings per share at $0.52, exceeding prior guidance [14][63] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted comparable store sales for Q4 were up 1.5%, driven by America's Best's growth of 2%, while Eyeglass World's comparable store sales declined by 1.7% due to Hurricane Helene [11][12] - Managed care sales comped high single digits throughout the year, contributing to approximately 40% of total revenues [14][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a decline in cash-pay sales, which was offset by strong managed care sales [12][14] - The impact of weather and consumer sentiment was noted, particularly in February, leading to a cautious outlook for the near term [25][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on transforming its business by enhancing customer segmentation and personalizing messaging to attract higher-value customers [21][23] - A strategic shift is underway to target managed care customers, who now represent a significant portion of the customer base [22][34] - Investments in technology and operational efficiencies are being prioritized to improve customer experience and drive profitability [18][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the early results from transformation initiatives, despite recent negative traffic trends [25][26] - The company is preparing for a wider range of scenarios in its guidance due to uncertainties in consumer sentiment and weather impacts [26][70] Other Important Information - The company announced a leadership change with the appointment of a new CFO, Chris Laden, effective March 31 [9][10] - The company is implementing a comprehensive review of its store fleet, with plans to take action on 43 stores through fiscal year 2026 [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How has the company factored in resources and risks from the pivot to a more moderate middle-income consumer? - Management indicated that this segment is already a significant part of the current customer base, and efforts are focused on enhancing the customer experience for these groups [78][80] Question: Can you provide context on recent performance trends and their impact on guidance? - Management acknowledged strong performance in January but noted choppy trends in the last two weeks of February, leading to a more conservative guidance approach [86][87] Question: What is the plan for remote rollout in 2025? - The company plans to continue opening remote-enabled stores where laws allow and integrate remote capabilities as part of its ongoing operations [92][95] Question: How is managed care expected to impact top-line guidance in 2025? - Managed care is projected to grow at high single digits, contributing significantly to the overall revenue, while cash-pay consumers face more challenges [108][110] Question: Can you elaborate on the drivers of comparable store sales in 2025? - Management expects growth to come equally from traffic and average ticket increases, with positive trends observed from recent initiatives [100][102]