Summary of U.S. Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the U.S. semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment sector, with a particular emphasis on AI-related technologies and companies [1][2][3]. Key Companies Discussed - **NVIDIA (NVDA)**: Rated Outperform with a target price of $275. The datacenter opportunity is significant, with expected growth driven by AI infrastructure [12][22][25]. - **Broadcom (AVGO)**: Rated Outperform with a target price of $475. Strong AI revenue growth is anticipated, with projections of over $50 billion in AI revenues for FY26 [10][32][34]. - **Qualcomm (QCOM)**: Rated Outperform with a target price of $215. The company is expected to benefit from a strong product portfolio despite headwinds from Apple [12][39][46]. - **Texas Instruments (TXN)**: Rated Market Perform with a target price of $160. The company is experiencing double-digit growth but faces valuation concerns [7][73]. - **Analog Devices (ADI)**: Rated Market Perform with a target price of $270. The company is high quality but shares are considered expensive [7][78]. - **Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)**: Rated Market Perform with a target price of $200. The company is expected to see significant growth from AI partnerships, but skepticism remains regarding its competitive position [7][61][64]. - **Intel (INTC)**: Rated Market Perform with a target price of $35. The company faces fundamental challenges and competition from AMD and ARM [7][53][56]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Spending**: Continued strong spending in AI is expected to drive growth for NVDA and AVGO, with no signs of slowing down [4][10][32]. - **Semicap Valuations**: Despite high valuations, semicap companies like AMAT and LRCX are expected to benefit from positive WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) revisions and growth in DRAM and NAND capex [4][98][100]. - **Market Performance**: The semiconductor sector (SOX) outperformed the S&P 500 by 2600 basis points in 2025, with a 42% increase compared to the S&P's 16% [3][16][21]. - **Recovery in Analog**: There are signs of recovery in the analog segment, but the pace is uncertain, and companies like TXN and ADI may already be in mid-cycle recovery [5][70][78]. Additional Important Points - **Valuation Concerns**: Many companies, particularly in the analog space, are facing high valuations despite strong growth, leading to cautious outlooks [5][70][78]. - **Market Dynamics**: The competitive landscape is shifting, with AMD and Intel losing market share to newer entrants and facing challenges in core markets [53][54][61]. - **Future Projections**: Companies like AMD and QCOM are expected to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, driven by AI and adjacent markets, but there is skepticism about the sustainability of these projections [61][63][45]. Conclusion - The semiconductor sector is poised for growth driven by AI and related technologies, but companies must navigate high valuations and competitive pressures. Key players like NVDA, AVGO, and QCOM are positioned favorably, while others like INTC and AMD face significant challenges.

Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX) is one of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 stocks Jim Cramer commented on. Cramer showed optimism around the company, as he commented: “Finally, at eighth place is another one I like so much, Lam Research, up 137%. That’s a semiconductor capital equipment maker. That is who the memory companies call when they need to have more capacity because prices are going up. And this one had a huge move today, by the way, up more than 5%.” Stock market data. Photo by Alesia Kozik ...

Investment Ratings - The report assigns Buy ratings to Tokyo Electron, Ebara, Disco, and Ulvac, while Kokusai Electric and Lasertec are rated Neutral, and Screen Holdings and Tokyo Seimitsu are rated Sell [2][4][21]. Core Insights - Strong demand for semiconductor capital equipment is driven by AI applications, particularly in memory and advanced logic sectors, leading to a positive outlook for 2026 [1]. - Earnings estimates for semiconductor capital equipment (SPE) companies have been revised upward due to increased forecasts for AI server units and TSMC's capital expenditures [1]. - The report highlights a 7% average increase in 12-month target prices for the covered companies [1]. Company Summaries Tokyo Electron - Rated Buy, expected to benefit from increased investment in memory, especially DRAM [2]. - Target price raised to ¥43,000 from ¥38,000, representing a 15% upside from the current price [21]. Ebara - Rated Buy, poised to gain from the rise in CMP layers in advanced logic and TSMC's capital expansion [2]. - Target price increased to ¥5,200 from ¥5,000, indicating a 28% upside [21]. Disco - Rated Buy, expected to benefit significantly from generative AI semiconductor packaging, particularly with silicon bridge technology [9]. - Target price raised to ¥62,000 from ¥61,000, reflecting a 14% upside [21]. Ulvac - Rated Buy, seeing strong orders from China and Taiwan foundries alongside increased memory investment [2]. - Target price increased to ¥8,400 from ¥7,700, indicating a 12% upside [21]. Kokusai Electric - Rated Neutral, with expectations of a V-shaped earnings recovery due to high exposure to memory, but limited benefits from TSMC's investment in advanced technologies [3]. - Target price raised to ¥5,000 from ¥4,400, reflecting a 14% downside [21]. Lasertec - Rated Neutral, with limited near-term order benefits from the adoption of new products [3]. - Target price increased to ¥27,000 from ¥24,000, indicating an 18% downside [21]. Screen Holdings - Rated Sell, with expectations of limited profit margin improvements due to low exposure to memory and declining sales to emerging customers [4]. - Target price raised to ¥13,300 from ¥12,200, reflecting a 17% downside [21]. Tokyo Seimitsu - Rated Sell, with profit margins expected to remain capped due to high material costs [11]. - Target price increased to ¥8,700 from ¥8,500, indicating a 26% downside [21].

Group 1: Market Overview - Equities experienced strong growth in Q3 2025, with several reaching record highs [1] - The US Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate for the first time in the year during Q3 [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - The American Century Investments Small Cap Value Fund returned 4.69% in Q3 2025, underperforming the Russell 2000 Value Index, which returned 12.60% [1] - The fund focuses on investing in undervalued small-cap companies with potential earnings capability [1] Group 3: Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACLS) - Axcelis Technologies, Inc. reported a one-month return of -5.51% and a 52-week gain of 15.67% [2] - The stock closed at $86.12 per share on January 2, 2026, with a market capitalization of $2.67 billion [2] - The company generated revenue of $214 million and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $1.21 in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations [5] - Axcelis has shown improved performance due to better-than-expected profits and stabilizing demand in the semiconductor sector [3] Group 4: Hedge Fund Interest - Axcelis Technologies, Inc. was held by 33 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, an increase from 29 in the previous quarter [5]

23 December 2025 | 12:45AM JST Equity Research Japan Technology: Semiconductor Capital Equipment: Semicon Japan 2025: A promising year ahead for equipment manufacturers in 2026 We visited several companies' booths at Semicon Japan 2025, which was held on December 17-19. Equipment demand is strong, mainly for memory and advanced logic applications, and some customers are requesting shipments of their equipment to be expedited. Our impression is that business conditions for equipment manufacturers look genera ...

Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer was bullish on due to share buyback activity. During the episode, Cramer said it is one of his “old favorites.” He said: “That’s why I went through that list of 51 companies to pick out 10 that are worth recommending to you. Now, first up is one of my old favorites is Applied Materials. It’s a semiconductor capital equipment maker, which has reduced its share count by 31% since the end of 2015. Now, this stock had a strong year. It’s up ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Semiconductor Capital Equipment Industry Industry Overview - The semiconductor capital equipment industry is experiencing a robust investment outlook, particularly in the DRAM segment, driven by increasing demand for AI semiconductors and various DRAM types including HBM, LPDDR, and GDDR [1][2] - The forecast for wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) demand has been raised by 3-4% for CY25-27, with expected growth rates of +11% year-over-year (yoy) to $113 billion in CY25, $124 billion in CY26, and $132 billion in CY27 [1][8] Key Insights - **WFE Demand Growth**: The demand for WFE, excluding China, is projected to surpass the CY22 peak in CY26-27, indicating a favorable business environment for front-end companies [1][9] - **DRAM Investment**: Major DRAM manufacturers are expected to expand production capacity, with $6 billion of the $11 billion increase in the CY26 forecast attributed to DRAM investments [1][8] - **NAND and Foundry Investments**: While NAND demand continues to exceed supply, investment in NAND is not uniform across manufacturers, as major players prioritize DRAM investments. Logic/foundry investments are expected to grow, particularly in advanced processes [2][9] Company-Specific Insights - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)**: The company has been reiterated as a "Buy" with raised earnings estimates and target prices, expected to grow faster than the WFE market due to DRAM investment expansion and new product offerings. The new target price is set at ¥38,000, up from ¥36,000 [3][11] - **Kokusai Electric**: Rated as "Neutral," with expectations of weaker earnings momentum due to a decline in new customer ratios in China and low memory exposure [7][12] - **SCREEN Holdings**: Rated as "Sell," anticipated to have the weakest earnings momentum among covered companies due to low memory exposure and declining new customer ratios in China [7][12] - **Lasertec**: Rated as "Neutral," expected to see increased orders mainly for MATRICS, but limited upside in current valuation [7][12] Financial Projections - **WFE Market Forecasts**: - Total WFE for CY25 is projected at $113 billion, with a yoy growth of +11% - For CY26, the forecast is $124 billion, also +11% yoy - For CY27, the forecast is $132 billion, with a slower growth of +7% yoy [8][9] - **Memory Segment Growth**: - DRAM is expected to grow from $32 billion in CY25 to $38 billion in CY26, maintaining a +20% yoy growth rate [8][9] - NAND is projected to grow from $10 billion in CY25 to $13 billion in CY26, with a +30% yoy growth rate [8][9] Risks and Considerations - Investment appetite among key customers in NAND is mixed, which may affect overall demand and investment strategies [2][7] - Potential risks include changes in investment at key customers, export controls, and competitive landscape shifts [15][12] Conclusion The semiconductor capital equipment industry is poised for significant growth, particularly in the DRAM segment, with companies like Tokyo Electron expected to outperform the market. However, challenges remain in the NAND sector and overall investment dynamics, necessitating careful monitoring of market trends and company-specific developments.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the semiconductor capital equipment industry, particularly highlighting strong demand for AI-related products across various companies involved in this sector [1] Company-Specific Insights HOYA - **Demand and Growth**: HOYA expects over 10% growth in HDD glass substrates due to high visibility in nearline-related demand, despite supply chain constraints [2] - **Operational Adjustments**: The company plans to ramp up operations in Laos to meet current demand [2] - **EUV Blanks**: HOYA is experiencing a steady flow of EUV blank orders, anticipating stable annual growth of over 10%, driven by expanding demand for GPUs and ASICs due to generative AI [3] Advantest - **Current Demand**: Advantest reported firm demand for both SoC testers and memory testers, with current-generation GPUs driving the strength in SoC testers and HBM4 driving memory testers [4] - **Production Capacity**: The company is actively expanding production capacity and has strategically procured components to avoid bottlenecks [4] - **Future Demand**: Management expects demand for ASIC testers to ramp up as early as Q4 FY3/26, with a significant scale anticipated due to the need for test data accumulation [5] Tokyo Electron - **Market Outlook**: Tokyo Electron expects growth to outpace the wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market, particularly in CY26, with double-digit growth in DRAM continuing into CY27 [9] - **Earnings Drivers**: The company highlighted opportunities in gas chemical etching for the 2nm logic process and cryogenic etching in 3D-NAND as key drivers for earnings growth [10] Additional Insights - **Investment Ratings**: - HOYA is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of ¥26,500 based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation [11] - Advantest is rated "Neutral" with a target price of ¥18,000, influenced by fluctuations in customer capex and market share [11] - Tokyo Electron is also rated "Buy" with a target price of ¥38,000, with risks including prolonged inventory adjustments and export restrictions [11] Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: The semiconductor industry faces risks such as fluctuations in customer capex appetite, changes in competitive landscapes, and potential shifts in interest rates [11] - **Operational Risks**: Companies are navigating supply chain constraints and the need for strategic procurement to maintain production capacity [4][5] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the semiconductor capital equipment industry and specific company performances and expectations.

Core Insights - Polen Capital's "Polen International Growth Strategy" reported a return of -4.23% gross and -4.53% net of fees for Q3 2025, underperforming the MSCI ACWI (ex-USA) which gained 6.89% [1] - The strategy's concentrated quality investing approach did not yield expected results during the quarter [1] Company Performance - ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) was highlighted as a key stock in the Polen International Growth Strategy, with a one-month return of 9.51% and a 52-week gain of 58.76% [2][3] - ASML's stock closed at $1,119.69 on December 08, 2025, with a market capitalization of $434.605 billion [2] Market Context - The performance of ASML was bolstered by investor optimism surrounding AI, as semiconductor capital equipment companies benefited from the demand for advanced chips essential for AI applications [3] - Concerns regarding a slowdown in the memory chip industry and Intel's performance diminished during the quarter, positively impacting semi-cap stocks [3] Hedge Fund Interest - ASML was held by 82 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, an increase from 78 in the previous quarter, indicating growing interest among institutional investors [4]

Summary of Lam Research Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lam Research (NasdaqGS:LRCX) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment Key Points and Arguments Market Outlook - The wafer fab equipment market is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with a flat to modest increase anticipated in the first half of 2026, followed by stronger growth in the latter half of the year [4][5][6] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing increasing optimism, particularly due to advancements in AI technology, which Lam Research is well-positioned to capitalize on [5][10] Device Segments - All three device segments—NAND, DRAM, and foundry—are projected to have substantial growth opportunities, driven by demand for advanced foundry logic and enterprise SSDs [9][10] - Lam Research's growth story is linked to changes in device architectures and integration approaches, leading to increased etch and deposition intensity across all device types [10][19] NAND Market Dynamics - Lam Research estimates a $40 billion upgrade opportunity for the existing NAND installed base, which is expected to unfold over several years [11][12] - The demand for higher layer counts in NAND is driving upgrades, with enterprise SSD applications pushing for faster adoption [13][14] - The transition to higher performance devices is not a static process; it will evolve into subsequent upgrade cycles, benefiting Lam Research [14] Competitive Positioning - Lam Research has successfully balanced its portfolio across NAND, DRAM, and foundry logic, gaining market share in all segments [21][22] - The company has developed products targeting smaller, taller features in foundry logic and DRAM, which are critical for future growth [22] Advanced Technologies - Innovations such as the transition to Moly for metallization and the introduction of dry resist technology are expected to enhance Lam's competitive edge [45][46] - The move to 4F squared in DRAM is anticipated to create vertical features that require precision etching, further benefiting Lam Research [41][42] China Market Insights - The company anticipates a downturn in the Chinese market for 2026, influenced by regulatory changes and spending patterns [25][30] - Despite the expected decline, Lam Research has a strong team and product offerings in China, which may help mitigate some of the downturn [34] Advanced Services and CSPG - The company's Customer Support and Parts Group (CSPG) is expected to grow significantly, driven by advanced service offerings and the introduction of cobots for maintenance [58][62] - CSPG is projected to be 1.5 times larger than the previous year by 2028, with advanced services playing a crucial role in this growth [58] Financial Performance - Lam Research aims for a gross margin of 50% by 2028, with potential for improvement driven by new tools and a close-to-customer strategy [70][71] - The company is focused on ensuring that pricing reflects the value delivered to customers, which is a key component of their financial strategy [71] Additional Important Insights - The semiconductor industry is undergoing significant changes, with vertical scaling and advanced packaging becoming increasingly important [19][35] - Lam Research's unique position in the market is attributed to its focus on etch and deposition technologies, which are critical for the evolving semiconductor landscape [23][35]