Core Viewpoint - United States Steel Corporation (X) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, with a consensus estimate indicating a revenue decline and potential challenges in earnings performance [1][3][12]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter consolidated revenues is $3,621.6 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 12.9% [3]. Factors Influencing Performance - Operational efficiencies, cost management, and increased volumes from Big River Steel and Big River 2 (BR2) are anticipated to positively impact performance [4]. - However, weaker year-over-year prices and soft demand in Europe are likely to negatively affect results [4]. Price Trends - U.S. steel prices fell sharply last year, with benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices dropping over 40% from $1,200 per short ton to around $700 per short ton [5]. - Recent price hikes and tariffs have increased HRC prices to above $900 per short ton, but the benefits may not be fully realized in the first quarter [6]. Segment Performance - The Flat-Rolled segment is expected to perform well due to a strong commercial strategy, while the Mini Mill segment is projected to grow from higher volumes [9]. - Demand remains weak in Europe, and the Tubular segment faces challenges from a weak pricing environment [9]. Average Realized Prices - Estimated average realized prices for the Flat-Rolled unit is $960, an 8.9% year-over-year decrease; for the Mini Mill segment, it is $797, an 18.4% decrease; for the European segment, it is $760, an 8.5% decline; and for the Tubular unit, it is $1,643, a 27.5% decline [10]. Earnings Prediction - The earnings ESP for U.S. Steel is -2.79%, with a consensus estimate indicating a loss of 48 cents for the first quarter [12].

Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corporation reported a significant decline in earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with earnings per share dropping to 67 cents from $3.46 in the same quarter last year, although it surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 68 cents [1]. Financial Performance - Net sales for Nucor in the first quarter were $7,830 million, a decrease of approximately 4% year over year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7,215.4 million [2]. - The average sales price per ton fell by 12% compared to the prior-year quarter and decreased by 2% sequentially [3]. - Total sales tons to outside customers for steel mills increased by 12% year over year, reaching 5,226,000 tons, surpassing the estimate of 4,609,000 tons [2]. Segment Performance - Earnings from the steel mills unit increased sequentially due to higher volumes, while earnings in the steel products segment declined due to lower average selling prices [4]. - The raw materials segment experienced lower earnings compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, attributed to reduced margins in scrap processing operations and direct reduced iron facilities [4]. Financial Position - At the end of the reported quarter, Nucor had cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments totaling $4.06 billion [5]. - The company amended its revolving credit facility to increase borrowing capacity to $2.25 billion from $1.75 billion and extended the maturity date to March 11, 2030, with the facility remaining undrawn [5]. Outlook - Nucor anticipates an increase in earnings for the second quarter of 2025 across all segments, with the steel mills unit expected to see the largest increase due to higher average selling prices at its sheet and plate mills [6]. Stock Performance - Nucor's shares have declined by 30.8% over the past year, compared to a 35.7% decline in the Zacks Steel Producers industry [7].

Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corporation is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 28, with weaker selling prices likely impacting performance [1][8]. Financial Performance - Nucor has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 27.2% [1]. - The company posted a significant earnings surprise of 90.6% in the last reported quarter [1]. - The consensus estimate for first-quarter adjusted earnings is between 50 cents and 60 cents per share, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of 68 cents [4][5]. Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter consolidated revenues is $7,215.4 million, reflecting an 11.3% year-over-year decline [7]. - The average sales price per ton for the steel mills unit is estimated at $923, indicating a 16.7% year-over-year decrease, while the steel products segment is pegged at $2,204 per ton, showing a 15.5% year-over-year decline [11]. Market Conditions - U.S. steel prices have seen a sharp decline, with benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices dropping over 40% last year, closing near $700 per short ton [9]. - Recent price hikes and tariffs have increased HRC prices to above $900 per short ton, but these benefits are not expected to reflect in first-quarter performance due to weak demand [10]. Earnings Prediction - The Earnings ESP for Nucor is +6.17%, indicating a potential earnings beat [4]. - Nucor currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [5].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Steel Producers industry is positioned to benefit from rising steel prices, supported by a resilient non-residential construction market and strong automotive demand [1][2] - The industry serves various end-use sectors, including automotive, construction, and industrial machinery, with steel being a critical component [3] Current Market Dynamics - U.S. steel prices have increased due to tightened supply from tariffs on imports and higher demand, with benchmark hot-rolled coil prices rising from around $700 per short ton to above $900 per short ton [4] - The automotive market is expected to rebound, driven by the adoption of electric vehicles and government incentives, while non-residential construction remains strong due to infrastructure projects [5] Challenges - A slowdown in China's economy has negatively impacted steel demand, particularly in the real estate sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of China's steel consumption [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Steel Producers industry has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 and the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector, with a decline of 45.5% over the past year [10] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 8.04X, below the S&P 500's 15.56X and the sector's 11.52X, indicating potential undervaluation [13] Key Players - **Nucor Corporation**: Expected to benefit from the non-residential construction market and automotive sector, with a focus on production capacity and shareholder returns [18][19] - **Steel Dynamics, Inc.**: Experiencing strong order activity and expanding capacity through new projects, including a state-of-the-art electric arc furnace [20][21] - **United States Steel Corporation**: Focused on operational efficiency and expanding its mini mill segment, with positive customer feedback on new product quality [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corporation (NUE) is currently facing a bearish trend in its stock performance, trading below key moving averages and experiencing significant price declines due to challenges in the steel industry [1][4][12]. Stock Performance - NUE stock has declined by 32.9% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Steel Producers industry's decline of 19.4% and the S&P 500's increase of 9.1% [4]. - The stock is approximately 36% below its 52-week high of $203, reached on April 9, 2024 [6]. Financial Health - Nucor ended 2024 with strong liquidity, holding around $4.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, and generated cash from operations of roughly $4 billion [10]. - The company returned about $2.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2024, totaling around $12 billion since 2020 [10]. - NUE offers a dividend yield of 1.7% with a payout ratio of 25%, indicating a sustainable dividend policy [11]. Strategic Growth Initiatives - Nucor is investing $6.5 billion in eight major growth projects through 2027, including significant expansions in sheet and rebar production [8]. - Recent acquisitions, such as Southwest Data Products and Rytec Corporation, are aimed at diversifying its product offerings and enhancing cross-selling opportunities [9]. Market Challenges - A significant decline in U.S. steel prices, dropping over 40% from $1,200 per short ton at the start of 2024, has negatively impacted Nucor's profitability [13]. - The slowdown in global automotive production and high interest rates have further curtailed steel demand in key markets, including construction [14]. Valuation and Earnings Outlook - Nucor is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.79X, which is about 35% higher than the peer group average of 10.97X [17]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NUE's 2025 earnings has been revised upward, although the first quarter estimate has seen a downward revision [18]. Conclusion - Nucor's strategic initiatives to expand production capabilities and diversify through acquisitions are positive, but the company remains vulnerable to ongoing challenges in the steel industry [19].