Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the preferred stock and baby bond market, highlighting both individual news and broader market trends, while emphasizing the expertise of the ADS Analytics team in generating income ideas from various security types [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The preferred stock and baby bond market is analyzed from both a bottom-up and top-down perspective, focusing on individual events and overall market conditions [1]. Group 2: Analyst Expertise - ADS Analytics consists of analysts with extensive experience in research and trading at leading global investment banks, specializing in income-generating ideas across different security types, including CEFs, ETFs, mutual funds, BDCs, and individual preferred stocks and baby bonds [1].

Investment Rating - The report provides a growth forecast for China with a rating of 4.6% for 2025, which is above consensus expectations [9][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that China achieved a growth target of "around 5%" in 2024, primarily driven by exports and related manufacturing investments [6]. - It expresses caution regarding medium- to long-term GDP growth due to challenges such as demographics, debt, and de-risking, while noting potential upside risks from AI adoption [8]. - The report anticipates that elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods will negatively impact GDP growth, projecting flat export volumes for the year [9]. - It expects a widening fiscal deficit by 2.6 percentage points of GDP in 2025 compared to 2024, with total social financing stock growth rising to 9.5% [9]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecasts - The report forecasts China's GDP growth at 4.6% for 2025, down from 5.0% in 2024, with domestic demand expected to rise to 4.5% [10]. - Consumption growth is projected at 4.9% for 2025, with household consumption at 4.8% [10]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report predicts a prolonged reflation path with CPI at 0.0% and PPI at -2.1% in 2025 [9]. - It outlines a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and RRR reductions, aimed at stabilizing the economy [32]. Trade and Exports - The report notes that Chinese exports are expected to decline by 2.4% in nominal USD terms in 2025, following a 5.9% increase in 2024 [10]. - It emphasizes that despite US-China trade tensions, Chinese exports to other economies may continue to grow [23]. Fiscal Policy - The augmented fiscal deficit is projected to reach 13.0% of GDP in 2025, reflecting increased government spending and lower revenue [37]. - The report discusses the implications of local government debt and special bond issuance on fiscal health [37].

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点击小程序查看报告原文 当地时间5月21日，20年期美债拍卖遇冷，中标利率升破5%，投标倍数跌至2.46[1]，引爆市场恐慌，美国市场再度出现股债汇"三杀"，10年期美债利率一 度突破上行阻力位4.6%。同样的，5月20日日本国债拍卖结果也较冷，20年期投标倍数跌至历史低位2.5，10年日债利率站上1.5%[2]。我们认为， 美、日 债同步拍卖遇冷、利率上行，可能反映了当前全球流动性趋紧，而作为重要融资货币，日元流动性不足带来的外溢效应可能加速美国股债汇"三杀"。 我 们再次提示，随着特朗普"美丽大法案"（one big beautiful bill）通过在即，美债上限问题得到解决后，财政部可能 在 7-9月集中投放新增美债，美国市场 遭受系统性流动性冲击的风险上升，美联储开启QE等扩表政策来救市的迫切性正在提升 （参见《 美国流动性冲击 、重启QE与主权财富基金 》）。 全球流动性收紧 2022年6月以来，主要发达国家央行同步开启QT。较2022年二季度，2024年底美、日、欧、英四大央行的资产占本地GDP比例分别下滑了12.1、14.0、 29.3和17.6个百分点，如果仅考虑狭义流动性[3]，比例则分别 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment banking landscape is evolving, with Evercore Inc. and The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. gaining investor attention due to their distinct service offerings in mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and wealth management [1]. Investment Banking Sector Overview - The long-term outlook for the investment banking sector remains favorable, but near-term momentum has moderated due to market volatility and concerns over economic slowdown and inflation [2]. - The anticipated recovery in M&A activity is expected to occur in the latter half of 2025 [2]. Goldman Sachs Analysis - Goldman Sachs maintains a leadership position in global banking and markets, with a 24% year-over-year increase in IB revenues in 2024, driven by corporate debt and equity issuances [3]. - However, IB revenues declined by 8% year-over-year in Q1 2025 due to market uncertainty and a slowdown in M&A activities [3][4]. - Goldman is strategically exiting its non-core consumer banking business to focus on higher-margin areas like investment banking and trading, including ending its partnership with Apple [5][6]. - The company has divested several consumer finance businesses to enhance its focus on scalable core businesses [6]. Evercore Analysis - Evercore, while smaller, generates 95.9% of its revenues from Investment Banking and Equities, with a CAGR of 8.6% from 2017 to 2024 [7]. - The company is actively increasing its staff in the IB sector, employing 197 senior managing directors as of March 31, 2025, to support revenue growth [8]. Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, Goldman shares fell by 0.1%, while Evercore shares dropped by 28.7%, against an industry growth of 0.8% [9]. - Goldman is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 12.72X, higher than its five-year median of 10.17X, while Evercore trades at 18.06X, above its five-year median of 12.40X [11]. - Evercore's valuation is at a premium compared to the industry average of 13.73X, while Goldman is trading at a discount, making it a better choice for value investors [14]. Dividend Yield - Evercore has a dividend yield of 1.43%, while Goldman has a higher yield of 2.02%, both exceeding the industry average of 1.12% [14]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Goldman suggests year-over-year revenue increases of 7.7% and 6% for Q2 and Q3 2025, respectively, with earnings growth of 13.9% and 20.9% [18]. - Conversely, Evercore's estimates indicate a revenue decline of 7.1% and 1.2% for the same quarters, with earnings declines of 22.7% and 3.4% [20]. Strategic Positioning - Despite near-term challenges, Goldman is well-positioned with an increased backlog and diversified revenue base, providing resilience that Evercore lacks during volatility [21]. - Goldman’s focus on high-return segments and divestitures is improving operational focus and profitability [22].

21 May 2025 | 10:11PM IST Goldman Sachs Asia in Focus India: Towards a better growth-inflation balance Santanu Sengupta +91(22)6616-9042 | santanu.sengupta@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Arjun Varma +91(22)6616-9043 | arjun.varma@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclo ...

21 May 2025 | 4:01PM EDT What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: Growing US fiscal concerns, tracking trade flows, the positives of population aging Transcript US: fiscal concerns grow We estimate that the House Republican reconciliation package that extends expiring tax cuts, enacts new tax cuts, and reduces spending will increase the US deficit by around $275bn, or 0.8% of GDP, next year compared with current policy. This increase is slightly larger than we originally anticipated, mainly owing to more gener ...

SAO PAULO, May 21, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- On May 20th, 2025, the first "China-Brazil Economic and Finance Conference" organized and hosted by China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC), was successfully held in São Paulo, Brazil. Hundreds of government officials, representatives from leading enterprises and investment institutions across China and Brazil attended the conference. At the event, Xu Yicheng, CICC's Member of Management Committee, represented the company. In his opening remarks, Xu ...

新华财经北京5月21日电（记者闫鹏）20日， 宁德时代 正式在香港联交所主板挂牌上市，绿鞋前发行规 模46.0亿美元，绿鞋后发行规模52.9亿美元（假设绿鞋全额行使）。这是为2023年以来全球规模最大的 IPO，也是迄今为止规模最大的A股上市公司H股IPO。 本次项目募集资金的90%将用于推进宁德时代匈牙利项目建设，以更好地满足欧洲等海外市场不断增长 的 动力 电池 和 储能电池 需求，对宁德时代国际业务布局和发展具有重要意义。 业内人士表示，对香港 资本市场 而言，作为2022年以来香港市场规模最大的IPO，宁德时代H股IPO将 提升市场活跃度，增强香港资本市场的国际影响力，并具有较强示范效应，或将带动A股其他企业赴港 上市。 上市首日，宁德时代H股上涨16.43%，报306.2港元／股。 中金公司 投资 银行 部执行负责人许佳表 示，本次港股IPO的踊跃认购和良好上市日表现，体现出全球资本市场对中国优质企业长期价值的坚定 信心，高质量发展的中国企业依然具备强大吸引力和全球配置价值。 中金公司担任本次项目的联席保荐人及联席牵头经办人，并担任本次项目的独家后市稳定商及独家结算 代理。本次宁德时代H股发行过程中 ...

M Global Insight May 20, 2025 06:00 PM GMT Global Economics Mid-Year Outlook Skewed to the Downside Global growth steps down by a percentage point from 2024. US trade policy and the uncertainty it engenders are the main drivers. Central banks have to confront the slowing, but the Fed must wait until inflation ebbs. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could aff ...