Core Viewpoint - Macy's raised its fiscal year outlook after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results, particularly in same-store sales growth, leading to a significant increase in share price [1][4]. Financial Performance - Second quarter revenue decreased by 2.53% to $4.81 billion, surpassing expectations of $4.71 billion [2]. - Adjusted earnings per share fell by 41% to $0.41, exceeding the forecast of $0.18 [2]. - Same-store sales grew by 1.9%, marking the best growth in 12 quarters, while analysts had predicted a decline of 0.51% [2]. Segment Performance - Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury reported same-store sales increases of 3.6% and 1.2%, respectively [3]. - The strong performance in these segments contributed to the overall positive outlook for the company [3]. Outlook and Guidance - Macy's now projects revenue between $21.15 billion and $21.45 billion, slightly above the previous range of $21 billion to $21.4 billion [4]. - Adjusted earnings are expected to be between $1.70 and $2.05, an increase from the prior range of $1.60 to $2.00 [5]. - For 2025, same-store sales are anticipated to decline by 0.5% to 1.5% year-over-year, an improvement from the previous expectation of a 2.0% decline [4]. Market Context - Despite the positive quarterly results, Macy's stock was down nearly 19.5% year-to-date prior to the earnings report, contrasting with the S&P 500's 9% gain [6].

Core Insights - Target's stock has decreased approximately 40% over the past year due to stagnating earnings growth, increasing competition, and an upcoming leadership change [2] - The company has a history of underperforming during economic downturns, with significant stock declines during inflation shocks and financial crises [3] - Current fundamentals indicate potential further declines, with projections suggesting a possible drop to $45 per share, representing a 50% decrease from current levels [4] Revenue Performance - Target's revenue has been declining, with an average annual decrease of 0.3% over the last three years; FY 2024 reported $106 billion, a 0.7% decrease from the previous year [5] - The latest quarter recorded a further decline of 0.8%, driven by low discretionary demand and competition from value-oriented retailers like Walmart and Costco [6] Margin Analysis - Profitability is declining, with an average operating margin of 5.4% over the last year and a gross margin of 29% in Q2, down from 30% the previous year [8][9] - A shift towards lower-margin essentials and reliance on promotions have diminished pricing power, with potential gross margin contraction to 25-26% leading to a 40% reduction in operating income [9][10] Valuation Concerns - At a current price of $92 per share, Target faces substantial downside risk if revenues contract by approximately 2% annually and gross margins revert to lower levels [10] - If investor sentiment deteriorates, Target's valuation could reassess to 8x earnings, implying an equity value of around $45 per share, reflecting a 50% downside [11] Future Outlook - The upcoming third-quarter results will be critical; stabilization in comparable store sales or gross margin could alleviate some pressure, while continued weaknesses may increase investor skepticism [12] - Target's potential for recovery lies in enhancing its affordable, style-centric private labels, which may require a long-term perspective from both investors and customers [13]

Market Overview - The current market momentum is characterized by record highs in the NASDAQ and S&P 500, but market internals are weak, with a significant number of stocks underperforming [2][3] - The S&P 100 shows a decisively negative advanced decline, indicating a challenging environment for traders [3] Target Corporation - Target has been under significant pressure, down 34% year-to-date, and is viewed as a bearish opportunity as it approaches a critical support level at $90 [4][5] - A proposed options strategy involves buying 90 puts and selling 85 puts for a $160 debit, anticipating a breakdown below the $90 level [6] Eli Lilly and Company - Eli Lilly is seen as a bullish opportunity despite being an underperformer compared to the S&P 500, with recent news indicating resilience in the pharmaceutical sector [14][15] - An options strategy involves buying 750 calls and selling 760 calls for a $4.80 debit, aiming for a quick upside based on current trends [15][16] Citigroup Inc. - Citigroup has outperformed year-to-date, up 40%, but faces a weakening economic backdrop and flattening yield curve, raising concerns about sustainability [24][25] - A bearish options strategy is proposed, involving buying a 92.5 put and selling an 82.5 put for a $1.95 debit, allowing for a longer duration to assess market conditions [26][33]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets have experienced a significant bull run since the start of 2023, with major indexes like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite nearing all-time highs [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have achieved multiple all-time highs in 2025, while the S&P 400 mid-cap index is up 4.9% year to date, just 4.6% away from its 52-week high [2][9] Mid-Cap Stocks - Investment in mid-cap stocks is recognized as a strong portfolio diversification strategy, combining attributes of both small and large-cap stocks [3] - Mid-cap stocks are less vulnerable to losses during economic downturns due to lower international exposure, and they can outperform small caps in a thriving economy due to established management and market presence [4] Recommended Mid-Cap Stocks - Five mid-cap stocks with favorable Zacks Rank for the remainder of 2025 are Dillard's Inc. (DDS), Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL), StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX), Armstrong World Industries Inc. (AWI), and Watts Water Technologies Inc. (WTS), all rated Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [5][9] Company Insights Dillard's Inc. (DDS) - Dillard's is enhancing growth through strategic initiatives in both brick-and-mortar and e-commerce, focusing on customer acquisition and retention [8] - The company has a strong financial position with solid liquidity and minimal rent obligations, alongside shareholder-friendly practices like dividends and buybacks [10] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for DDS are -0.4% and -15.8%, respectively, for the current year, with a 1.8% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [11] Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) - Sterling Infrastructure provides e-infrastructure, transportation, and building solutions, operating through three segments: E-Infrastructure Solutions, Transportation Solutions, and Building Solutions [12][13][14] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for STRL are 6.5% and 56.9%, respectively, for the current year, with a 5.3% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last seven days [15] StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX) - StoneX Group operates a global financial services network, offering execution, post-trade settlement, clearing, and custody services through various segments [16] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for SNEX are 4.9% and 21.7%, respectively, for the next year, with a 21.7% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 60 days [17] Armstrong World Industries Inc. (AWI) - Armstrong World Industries is a leading producer of ceiling systems for construction and renovation, operating in three segments: Mineral Fiber, Architectural Specialties, and Unallocated Corporate [18][19][20] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for AWI are 12.2% and 15.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.7% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [21] Watts Water Technologies Inc. (WTS) - Watts Water Technologies designs and manufactures water safety and flow control products, reporting under three geographic segments: The Americas, Europe, and APMEA [22] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for WTS are 3.9% and 11.3%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.8% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last seven days [24]

Economic Indicators - The jobs data is anticipated to influence Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts, with a 97% chance of a cut in September according to the FedWatch tool [3][4] - Inflation remains persistent, with PCE showing an annual growth of 2.9%, and CPI expected to reflect similar trends [5][6] Precious Metals Market - Gold prices are reaching record highs, while silver is also experiencing significant gains, indicating a strong interest in precious metals as an inflation hedge [6][7] Retail Sector Performance - Macy's reported a 21% increase in stock price post-earnings, reflecting signs of recovery despite facing tariff headwinds [11] - Dollar Tree's stock fell by 9% after earnings due to significant tariff impacts affecting low-end consumer spending [13][14] - American Eagle's stock surged by 26% following a successful marketing campaign, showcasing the potential for political spotlight to drive sales [15][16] Technology Sector Insights - Google’s stock rose by 9% after avoiding a forced sale of its Chrome browser amid antitrust scrutiny, indicating a favorable regulatory environment for big tech [20][22] - Salesforce's stock declined by 7% despite beating earnings expectations, raising questions about the effectiveness of AI integration into its business model [24][26] - Alibaba reported a 26% growth in its cloud business driven by AI, contrasting with Salesforce's struggles, highlighting the varying impacts of AI across companies [26] Upcoming Earnings and Market Trends - Adobe's upcoming earnings report is expected to reveal how effectively its AI investments are translating into revenue, similar to the scrutiny faced by Salesforce [27][28] - Broadcom's results will provide insights into the tech infrastructure supporting AI development, relevant for companies like Salesforce and Adobe [28][29]

Core Insights - Macy's Inc reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and raised its fiscal outlook, leading to an increase in share price [1][7] Financial Performance - Net sales for the quarter reached $4.81 billion, a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.76 billion [2] - The company raised its 2025 earnings guidance from a range of $1.60-$2.00 to $1.70-$2.05, compared to the consensus of $1.79 [2][7] - Full-year FY25 EPS is now projected at $1.95, slightly above the previous estimate of $1.90 [7] Future Outlook - Macy's anticipates a third-quarter adjusted loss of 15-20 cents per share, better than the consensus loss of 20 cents [3] - The company plans to close 150 underperforming stores as part of its "Bold New Chapter" strategy, which is expected to improve long-term margins [4] - Macy's aims to expand its luxury segment by 20% and targets $750 million in asset sales over the next three years [4] Tariff Impact - The company expects tariffs to reduce FY25 EPS by approximately 25-40 cents, which is more than previously forecasted [5] - Gross margin is projected to be pressured by 40-60 basis points, compared to the earlier estimate of 20-40 basis points [5] - As of the end of last year, about 20% of Macy's merchandise was sourced from China, down from over 50% before the pandemic [6] Strategic Adjustments - To mitigate tariff impacts, Macy's is renegotiating supplier terms, adjusting order volumes, evaluating pricing strategies, and diversifying sourcing [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Macy's reported strong second quarter results, exceeding guidance for sales, margin, revenue, EBITDA, and EPS, marking the best quarter in 12 quarters for the company [8][19] - The company achieved a 1.4% comp performance in the reimagined 125 stores, while overall comp growth was only 0.1% [19][20] - SG&A expenses were reduced by approximately $30 million year-over-year, contributing to improved profitability [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Macy's brand saw growth in both digital and physical sales, with a notable increase in the R125 stores [8][10] - Bloomingdale's experienced its fourth consecutive quarter of growth, with a comp increase of over 5.7% [8] - Bluemercury achieved its 18th consecutive quarter of growth, indicating strong performance across all business lines [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed 64 underproductive stores last year, generating nearly $300 million in cash proceeds from asset sales [22] - The recapture rate of customers from closed stores was better than expected, contributing positively to overall sales [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The "Bold New Chapter" strategy aims to improve the quality of the enterprise over three years, focusing on reimagining the Macy's nameplate and enhancing customer experience [10][11] - The strategy includes closing underperforming stores, increasing staffing in key areas, and leveraging AI for operational efficiency [13][19] - The company is committed to being a multi-category, multi-brand, and multi-price point retailer to adapt to changing consumer preferences [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged uncertainty in the macro environment but expressed confidence in the execution of their strategy [14] - The company expects a more choiceful consumer in the upcoming seasons, embedding prudency in their guidance for the fall [36] - Management believes that the current environment will likely lead to market share consolidation, with Macy's positioned as a healthier retailer [40] Other Important Information - The company is focusing on enhancing its private brand portfolio, with new brands introduced and existing ones refreshed [57][58] - Macy's is actively managing inventory levels, with a 1% decrease in inventory in Q2, positioning itself well for future sales [54] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the impact of the Bold New Chapter strategy? - The strategy has led to positive comp growth and improved customer experience, with a focus on staffing and store presentation [10][11] Question: What are the expectations for the environment into the back half of 2025? - Management expects a more choiceful consumer and has embedded a prudent guide for the fall season [36] Question: How do you expect tariffs to impact profitability? - Tariffs are expected to have a 40 to 60 basis point impact on gross margin, with ongoing efforts to mitigate these costs [43][44] Question: What trends are seen in the off-price business? - The off-price business remains healthy, with no signs of trade down among consumers [31] Question: How is the company managing inventory? - Inventory was down 1% in Q2, with a focus on maintaining a clean composition and responding to consumer demand [54] Question: What are the plans for pricing in the remainder of the year? - Pricing will be managed judiciously, with a focus on serving the customer while considering cost pressures [48][60]

Core Concept - Bloomingdale's is launching a transformative campaign titled "Just Imagine," which aims to redefine the retail experience by merging art, fashion, and immersive storytelling at its flagship store on 59th Street this fall [1][9]. Campaign Overview - The campaign features a façade installation and Carousel takeover by artist Yinka Ilori, who draws inspiration from the resilience and creativity of New York City [2][3]. - Ilori's design, titled "Cherish Your Magic," will include vibrant installations and product displays that reflect the dynamic spirit of the city [4][9]. Exclusive Collections - The campaign will showcase exclusive collections from Yinka Ilori and illustrator Angelica Hicks, including limited-edition items across various categories such as apparel, jewelry, and home décor [5][10]. - Retail prices for the limited-edition collection range from $16 for smaller items to $1,600 for high-end seating [8]. Interactive Experiences - Bloomingdale's will host a series of events and activities over two months, starting September 4, to engage customers in creative experiences [5][13]. - The flagship store will feature the Happy Medium Café, offering art experiences and hands-on activities for visitors [12]. Collaborations and Installations - The campaign includes collaborations with brands like PlayStation, which will feature a unique fusion of art and gaming [7]. - Various installations and interactive experiences will be available throughout the store, including custom pet portraits and live cooking demonstrations [13][18]. Duration and Locations - "Just Imagine" will run from September through October 2025, primarily at Bloomingdale's 59th Street location, with select elements available in other stores and online [14].

Core Insights - Macy's shares surged 18% as the department store chain indicated that its turnaround plan is beginning to yield positive results after years of poor sales performance [1] - The company reported quarterly sales growth for the first time in three years, excluding newly opened or closed locations [1] Turnaround Strategy - CEO Tony Spring launched a three-year plan in February, aiming to close 150 underperforming stores and reinvest in high-potential locations with improved product mix and displays [2] - The plan includes hiring more staff for fitting rooms, decluttering shoe departments, and introducing new brands such as DKNY and Khloe Kardashian's Good American [2] Financial Performance - Macy's expects annual adjusted profit per share to be between $1.70 and $2.05, an increase from previous expectations of $1.60 to $2.00 [3] - The annual net sales forecast was raised to $21.15 billion to $21.45 billion, up from $21 billion to $21.4 billion [3] - The company reported net sales of $4.81 billion, exceeding estimates of $4.76 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of 41 cents, beating projections of 18 cents [9] Sales Growth and Comparables - Comparable sales growth for Macy's was reported at 0.8%, marking its best performance in 12 quarters [8][11] - A group of 125 remodeled stores under the turnaround plan achieved comparable sales growth of 1.1% [9] - Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury brands showed stronger performance, with comparable sales growth of 3.6% and 1.2%, respectively [8] Tariff Impact - The estimated impact of tariffs on full-year gross margins was increased to 40 to 60 basis points, up from previous projections of 20 to 40 basis points [5] - The company is implementing "surgical" price increases to mitigate tariff costs, although unit sales have shown signs of softness due to price increases [5][6]

Macy's shares jumped nearly 20% Wednesday after the biggest U.S. department store chain posted better-than-expected results and boosted its guidance on solid demand at its "Reimagine" namesake locations, as well as Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury stores. https://t.co/04yHf0GpNk ...