Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The logistics industry in China is experiencing a positive shift in average selling price (ASP) trends due to successful anti-involution efforts, with express revenue rising 9% year-over-year (Y/Y) in July [2][10] - The Chinese government has been actively addressing over-competition since July 2025 through the implementation of the Price Law and the use of big data for regulatory enforcement [2][10] - Local initiatives in regions such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing are focusing on service quality and parcel pricing, which is enhancing regulation and benefiting the logistics industry [2][10] Company-Specific Insights - **JD Logistics (JDL)**: - Plays a crucial role in supporting JD's food delivery execution, managing a full-time rider workforce with proper contracts and benefits [3][10] - Inclusion in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to improve liquidity and visibility, boosting investor confidence [3][10] - **SF Express**: - Emerged as the key winner in the logistics sector, gaining the largest market share with a parcel volume growth of 34% Y/Y, significantly outpacing the industry average of 15% Y/Y [12][14] - Express parcel revenue for July increased 15% Y/Y, reaching RMB 18.7 billion, with an ASP of RMB 13.55, reflecting a 14% Y/Y decline [12][14] - **ZTO Express**: - Emphasized rational pricing and anti-involution strategies, focusing on service quality and profitability rather than aggressive price wars [13][10] - **Full Truck Alliance (YMM)**: - Reported strong 2Q25 performance but faces challenges with a reduced FY25 outlook due to regulatory changes [3][10] Market Dynamics - July's parcel volume maintained a robust trend, with a 15% Y/Y increase, reaching 16.4 billion parcels [10][12] - The inter-city parcel volume accounted for 90% of total parcel volume, with a 16% Y/Y increase, while intra-city volume grew 8% Y/Y [10][12] - The ASP decline narrowed to 5% Y/Y in July from 6% in June, indicating easing competitive pressures [10][12] Regulatory Environment - The anti-involution campaign is broadening, with regulators intensifying efforts to rationalize the competitive landscape [9][10] - National bodies like the State Post Bureau and the National Development and Reform Commission have issued pricing guidance to stabilize the industry [11][10] Investment Ratings - J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight rating on SF, JDL, and ZTO, while keeping a Neutral rating on YMM, reflecting a balanced risk/reward scenario [3][10] Additional Insights - Online retail sales in July showed a strong start for 3Q25, with home appliances sales growing 29% Y/Y, while food sales softened [15][17] - YMM's revenue growth in 2Q25 was 17%, but the company revised its FY25 revenue guidance down by 5% due to challenges in the freight brokerage segment [16][18] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the logistics industry in China, company-specific performances, regulatory impacts, and investment outlooks.

Summary of S.F. Holding and Kerry Logistics Conference Call Company Overview - **Companies Involved**: S.F. Holding (002352.SZ/6936.HK) and Kerry Logistics (0636.HK) Key Points 1. Financial Performance - **2Q25 Revenue**: S.F. Holding reported revenue growth of +11% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb77.008 billion, in line with expectations [1] - **Net Profit**: Pre-exceptional net profit was Rmb2.577 billion, down -13% compared to guidance, with a gross margin of 13.1%, lower than 14.5% in 2Q24 [1][3] - **EBIT Margin**: EBIT margin was 5.1%, missing the expected 6.0% [3] 2. Market Share and Growth - **Time-Definite Express Growth**: Revenue growth for time-definite express was 7% in 1H25, with overall parcel volume growth accelerating to 19% yoy, increasing market share to 8.2% [2] - **Future Projections**: Expected time-definite express revenue growth of 7% yoy in 2025, with group revenue growth projected at 10% and 9% for 3Q and FY25, respectively [2] 3. Margin Outlook - **Near-Term Margin Pressure**: Short-term gross margin is expected to face pressure due to a flexible pricing strategy, with projections of 13.4% and 13.3% for 3Q25 and FY25, respectively [3] - **Long-Term Margin Improvement**: Confidence in margin improvement in 2026 due to increased volume and revenue base [3] 4. Supply Chain and International Growth - **Revenue Growth**: Supply chain and international revenue grew by 10% yoy in 1H25, despite deceleration due to tariff uncertainties [4] - **Future Growth Expectations**: Anticipated growth of 10% in supply chain and international revenue for 2025, leveraging a large fleet and comprehensive network [9] 5. Shareholder Returns - **Dividend Announcement**: S.F. Holding plans to distribute Rmb2.3 billion as FY25 interim dividends, with a payout ratio of 40% [10] - **Capex Reduction**: Capex decreased by 24% to Rmb4.2 billion in 1H25, with expectations to maintain similar levels in 2025 [10] 6. Employee Shareholding Scheme - **"Grow Together" Scheme**: Launched to enhance organizational vitality, involving grants over a medium-to-long-term period of 9 years, with up to 200 million A shares allocated [11] 7. Investment Ratings - **S.F. Holding**: Maintained a Buy rating with a target price of Rmb57 for A-shares and HK$52 for H-shares, based on 8X and 7X EV/EBITDA multiples, respectively [12][24] - **Kerry Logistics**: Neutral rating with a target price of HK$9.0, citing risks around forwarding rates and geopolitical uncertainties [13] 8. Risks - **Key Risks for S.F. Holding**: Prolonged price competition, macroeconomic dependence on parcel volume growth, and higher capex [12] - **Key Risks for Kerry Logistics**: Weaker-than-expected freight forwarding performance and increased competition in the logistics market [13] Additional Insights - **Operational Efficiency**: The company is focusing on improving service quality while maintaining a flexible pricing strategy to expand market share [3] - **Investment in Capabilities**: Enhanced cross-border multimodal capabilities are expected to support resilience in international growth despite external uncertainties [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights FedEx (FDX) as a strong value investment opportunity, showcasing its favorable valuation metrics and earnings outlook, indicating it may be undervalued in the current market [4][8]. Valuation Metrics - FedEx has a P/E ratio of 12.43, which is slightly below the industry average of 12.56, indicating a competitive valuation [4]. - The PEG ratio for FedEx is 1.20, compared to the industry average of 1.40, suggesting that FDX is reasonably priced relative to its expected earnings growth [5]. - FedEx's P/B ratio stands at 2.02, significantly lower than the industry average of 4.43, indicating that the stock may be undervalued based on its book value [6]. - The P/CF ratio for FedEx is 6.73, which is also lower than the industry average of 9.04, further supporting the notion of undervaluation based on cash flow [7]. Investment Outlook - The combination of favorable valuation metrics and a strong earnings outlook positions FedEx as one of the strongest value stocks in the market currently [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the express delivery industry in China, specifically discussing the impact of "anti-involution" policies on pricing and profitability within the sector [3][4]. Core Insights 1. **Price Increases in Key Regions** - Express delivery prices have risen in key regions, with Yiwu seeing an increase of RMB0.1 per parcel in July 2025. The current price for a 0.1 kg parcel is above RMB1.2. In Guangdong, prices for 0.1 kg parcels have risen to RMB1.45-1.55, with regular parcels increasing by RMB0.2-0.3 and discount parcels by approximately RMB0.6 [3]. 2. **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies** - The implementation of anti-involution policies has led to stronger price hikes in Guangdong, a key region for express delivery. However, many franchisees may still be operating at a loss due to high operating costs [3]. 3. **New Social Security Regulations** - New regulations effective from September 1, 2025, mandate that employers cannot opt out of social security payments, which will increase costs for express delivery companies by more than RMB0.1 per parcel. This is expected to further support price hikes in the industry [4]. 4. **Rising Delivery Costs** - The expert noted that the mandatory social insurance expenses and long-standing price competition have suppressed delivery fees, affecting couriers' income. The trend of rising delivery fees is also observed in Eastern and Northern China [4]. 5. **Profitability Concerns** - Despite price increases, the expert expressed concerns that the express delivery industry chain may struggle to maintain profitability due to increased mandatory costs. If these costs are passed on to consumers, delivery prices may rise further [4]. Investment Recommendations 1. **Preferred Companies** - The report recommends investing in STO and Yunda, both rated as "Buy" due to their higher earnings resilience. Target prices remain unchanged [5]. 2. **Other Ratings** - YTO and SF Holding-A/H also maintain "Buy" ratings with unchanged target prices. Conversely, Deppon Logistics is rated "Reduce" due to high valuation concerns [5]. Additional Insights - The expert highlighted that the express delivery market is characterized by intense competition, with 30% of the market being low-priced tickets and 7-11% being discount-priced tickets in Guangdong [3]. - The report anticipates more regional policy tailwinds that could drive further re-rating of express delivery companies [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the express delivery industry in China.

Core Insights - ZTO Express reported second-quarter 2025 earnings of 35 cents per share, a decline from the previous year, while total revenues increased to $1.65 billion [1][8] - The company revised its 2025 parcel volume guidance down to 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14-18%, from a prior estimate of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion, which indicated 20-24% growth [1][8] Financial Performance - Revenues from the core express delivery business rose by 11% year over year, driven by a 16.5% increase in parcel volume, despite a 4.7% decrease in parcel unit price [3] - Gross profit decreased by 18.7% compared to the same quarter last year, with the gross margin rate falling to 24.9% from 33.8% [4][8] - Total operating expenses increased to RMB469.3 million ($65.5 million) from RMB405.3 million in the prior year [4] Operational Highlights - ZTO Express handled over 9.8 billion parcels in the second quarter, achieving an adjusted net income of 2.1 billion [2] - Retail volume growth remained strong, exceeding 50% compared to the previous year, positively impacting overall margins [2] - Revenue from KA (Key Accounts) increased significantly by 149.7% due to a rise in e-commerce return parcels [3] Cash Position - At the end of the second quarter, ZTO Express had cash and cash equivalents of $1.85 billion, up from $1.71 billion at the end of the previous quarter [5]

Group 1 - The research service "Asia Value & Moat Stocks" targets value investors looking for Asia-listed stocks with significant discrepancies between price and intrinsic value, focusing on deep value balance sheet bargains and wide moat stocks [1][2] - ZTO Express (NYSE: ZTO) is currently rated as a Hold, considering both its earnings miss and favorable regulatory developments [1] Group 2 - The author of the investing group provides investment ideas specifically for the Hong Kong market, emphasizing deep value balance sheet bargains and wide moat stocks, along with monthly updates on watch lists [2]

Summary of ZTO Express 2Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express (ZTO.N) - **Industry**: Transportation & Infrastructure - **Market**: Hong Kong/China Key Financial Metrics - **2Q25 Non-GAAP Net Income**: Rmb2.05 billion, down 27% YoY, compared to market expectations of Rmb2.29 billion [2] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Rmb4.5 billion in 1H25, down from Rmb5.5 billion in 1H24 [3] - **Capital Expenditures (Capex)**: Rmb3.1 billion in 1H25 [3] - **Total Revenue for 2Q25**: Rmb11.83 billion, up 10.3% YoY [9] - **Gross Profit Margin**: 24.9%, down from 33.8% YoY [9] - **Operating Profit Margin**: 20.9%, down from 30.0% YoY [9] - **Net Income**: Rmb1.94 billion reported, with a YoY decrease of 26.8% [9] Market Performance - **Market Share**: 19.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points YoY [3] - **Parcel Volume Outlook for 2025**: Revised to 38.8-40.1 billion parcels, down from 40.8 billion, representing a growth of 14-18% YoY [3] Revenue and Cost Analysis - **Parcel Revenue Growth**: 11% YoY to Rmb11.7 billion, driven by a 16.5% YoY increase in volume [7] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Core ASP decreased by 4.7% YoY [7] - **Unit Cost**: Increased by Rmb0.07 YoY, primarily due to higher KA costs [7] - **Gross Profit (GP)**: Decreased by 19% YoY, indicating higher costs than expected [7] - **Operating Profit (OP)**: Decreased by 23% YoY [7] Strategic Insights - **Management Discussion**: Focused on market outlook, competition strategy, and profitability [7] - **Interim Payout Ratio**: Remained at 40%, in line with expectations [7] - **Risks**: Potential upside from anti-involution initiatives, but full-year estimates are lower than consensus [7] Valuation and Price Target - **Current Stock Price**: US$19.74 as of August 19, 2025 [5] - **Price Target**: US$24.60, indicating a potential upside of 25% [5] - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb112.32 billion [5] - **Estimated EPS**: Expected to be Rmb10.54 for FY25 [5] Conclusion ZTO Express reported a significant decline in profits for 2Q25, leading to a downward revision of its full-year volume targets. Despite a modest revenue growth, the company faces challenges with rising costs and competitive pressures. The management's focus on strategic initiatives and market outlook will be crucial for navigating these challenges moving forward.

Company Overview - ZTO is a leading express delivery company in China, holding the 1 market share by parcel volume since 2016[12] - In 2Q25, ZTO delivered 98 billion parcels, capturing a 195% market share[12] - ZTO's network covers >99% of county-level cities in China[12] Competitive Advantages - ZTO operates 94 sorting hubs and has deployed 690 automation lines[12,69] - The company has a self-owned line-haul fleet of over 10,000 vehicles and operates approximately 3,900 line-haul routes[12] - ZTO's Network Partner Model (NPM) has increased its market share from 66% in 2011 to 73% in 2024, compared to the Direct Model[21] Financial Performance (Q2 2025) - ZTO's quarterly revenue reached RMB 11832 million, representing a 10% year-over-year growth[157] - The company's adjusted EBITDA margin was 299%[161] - Adjusted Net Income margin was 173%[166] ESG Initiatives - The company aims for a 20% reduction in GHG emissions intensity per parcel by 2028, using 2023 as the base year[120] - ZTO is increasing the proportion of women in management positions to 39% by 2030[123] - The company is actively involved in community and rural revitalization programs[123]

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express reported a strong growth in parcel volume and adjusted net income for the second quarter of 2025, despite facing challenges in the industry, indicating resilience and a focus on quality service [1][7][8]. Financial Highlights - Total revenues increased by 10.3% to RMB 11,831.8 million (US$1,651.7 million) compared to RMB 10,726.0 million in the same period of 2024 [8][10]. - Adjusted net income reached RMB 2.1 billion, a decrease of 26.8% from RMB 2.8 billion in the same period of 2024 [1][23]. - Basic and diluted earnings per American depositary share (ADS) were RMB 2.42 (US$0.34) and RMB 2.37 (US$0.33), down 25.3% and 25.0% respectively from the previous year [22]. Operational Highlights - Parcel volume grew by 16.5% year-over-year to 9.8 billion parcels [1][8]. - The number of pickup/delivery outlets exceeded 31,000, and the number of sorting hubs was 94 as of June 30, 2025 [8][10]. - The company maintained a stable SG&A expense ratio at 5.2% of revenue [9]. Cost and Profitability - Gross profit decreased by 18.7% to RMB 2,944.4 million (US$411.0 million), with a gross margin of 24.9% compared to 33.8% in the same period last year [15]. - Total cost of revenues increased by 25.1% to RMB 8,887.4 million (US$1,240.6 million) [11]. - Line-haul transportation costs remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.2% [12]. Business Outlook - The company revised its annual parcel volume guidance to a range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion, representing a growth rate of 14.0% to 18.0% [26]. - ZTO aims to stay ahead of the industry average growth rate while focusing on quality and operational efficiency [9][26]. Dividend Declaration - An interim cash dividend of US$0.30 per ADS and ordinary share was announced, representing a 40% payout ratio [25].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **China Internet and eCommerce industry**, focusing on online retail performance and key players in the market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Online Retail Growth**: - National online retail goods GMV accelerated to **+8% year-over-year (yoy)** in July, improving from **+6%** in May and June, which included the 618 shopping festival [2] - Online services GMV accelerated to **+35% yoy** in July, up from **29%** in May and June, driven by a shift towards services and subsidies in food delivery and local services [2] 2. **Retail Sales Performance**: - Overall retail sales growth was **3.7% yoy** in July, below expectations (Goldman Sachs estimate: **+5.0% yoy**) [2] - Notable slowdown in automobile sales, which declined by **-1.5% yoy** in July due to reduced discount rates amid "anti-involution" policies [2] 3. **Parcel Volume Growth**: - Industry parcel volume growth moderated to approximately **+15%** in July, with a steady growth rate in early August at low-teens yoy [2][21] - Average daily parcel volume was around **507 million** in the first 10 days of August [21] 4. **Company-Specific Insights**: - **Alibaba**: Expected to report **+11% yoy** growth in Customer Management Revenue and **23%** growth in cloud revenue, with a focus on AI initiatives [8] - **Pinduoduo (PDD)**: Anticipated **14%** growth in online marketing revenue and **7%** in transaction commission revenue, with discussions around its evolving business model [8] - **JD**: Reported strong **20%+ revenue growth** but faced wider-than-expected losses in new businesses, particularly in food delivery [9] - **Meituan**: Expected to see a decline in core local commerce EBIT due to increased competition and user subsidies [8] 5. **Market Dynamics**: - E-commerce engagement increased by **14% yoy** in July, with JD and Taobao showing strong growth in time spent by users [7] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in food delivery, impacting profitability across platforms [7] 6. **Future Outlook**: - The industry is projected to maintain a **6% growth** in online GMV by 2025, with parcel volume growth expected at **17%** [2] - The potential peak in food delivery investment/losses is anticipated in the **September 2025** quarter, which may lead to a positive inflection in eCommerce share prices in the second half of 2025 [7] Additional Important Content - **Temu's Performance**: - Temu's U.S. GMV decreased by **20% yoy** in July, but its monthly active users (MAU) rebounded by **41% month-over-month (mom)** after three months of decline [3] - The number of Temu merchants remained flat, indicating stability in merchant engagement [3] - **Regulatory Concerns**: - Temu has been notified of potential violations of the Digital Services Act for not adequately assessing risks related to illegal products sold on its platform [7] - **Consumer Behavior Trends**: - Consumer durables such as home appliances grew by **+28.7% yoy**, while discretionary categories like apparel showed modest growth of **+1.8% yoy** [23] - **Investment Recommendations**: - A defensive sub-sector exposure is recommended due to weaker profit setups for transaction platforms, with preferences for games, mobility, and internet verticals [7] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the China eCommerce industry and its major players.