Gamblers are raising the alarm about a $1.1 billion tax hike buried in Trump's tax bill that would slash their net winnings and potentially charge income tax when they break even or lose https://t.co/j9NKOoCNmt ...

RT s4mmy (@S4mmyEth)I used AI to pick my horse racing bets and it netted me an 86% ROI.However, this headline number isn't what it seems.A) Race Notes:i) I used ChatGPT 4.0 to pick the horses, it selected two in each race with a reasonable rationale.ii) I wagered £50 each race, allocating £40 on AI's first pick, then £10 on its second pick.iii) In race 3 neither of these horses started, so I personally decided to back Almuhit with £50 on him alone.iv) Most of the £303 profit came from the last pick, which I ...

Core Insights - The sin stock market, which includes companies in alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, and gambling, is gaining attention from investors focused on returns rather than ethical considerations [2][11] - Sin stocks are characterized by their defensive nature, providing growth even during economic downturns due to consistent demand for their products [3][11] Industry Trends - The U.S. alcoholic beverages market is projected to grow from $544.19 billion in 2024 to $573.98 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 5.5%, and expected to reach $709.13 billion by 2029 [8] - The U.S. tobacco market is shifting towards alternatives like vapes and smokeless options, with an estimated growth from $85.93 billion in 2024 to $112.28 billion by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of 3.4% from 2025 to 2032 [9] - The global online gambling market is anticipated to reach $12.81 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 16.5% from 2025 to 2030, driven by the rise of online platforms and sports betting legalization [10] Company Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) is transitioning towards reduced-risk products, maintaining strong pricing power and consistent earnings momentum despite declining smoking rates [5][12] - Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is enhancing its omnichannel strategy to integrate digital and physical offerings, positioning itself as a leader in the expanding gambling sector [6] - Constellation Brands (STZ) is focusing on premiumization and innovation, with the beer segment expected to grow 7-9% annually, while also expanding into premium wine and spirits [19][21]

Illinois Tax Increase Impact - Illinois legislature raised taxes on sports wagers, introducing a $0.50 transaction fee per bet, effective September 1st [1][2] - DraftKings believes the tax is ill-conceived, as it taxes gross receipts rather than profit, making it difficult to offer bets profitably, especially on smaller amounts [3][9] - The company expects the tax will drive consumers to the illegal market or to bet larger amounts to offset the tax burden [3][7] - DraftKings had no prior warning about the tax increase, despite recent meetings with legislative leaders [4] - The company is passing the tax on to consumers to continue offering the product in Illinois, hoping for reconsideration from lawmakers [3][5] Industry & Market Dynamics - The industry believes education is needed for policymakers to understand that the tax impacts revenue and investment in product development [8][9] - DraftKings acknowledges that states are facing budget crises and are looking at sports betting and iGaming legalization for revenue [10] - The company operates in approximately 27-28 states and anticipates both opportunities and challenges across different regions [13] - DraftKings reports healthy customer behavior and strong growth rates, with customer-level metrics (bet frequency, average bet size, sports engagement) meeting or exceeding expectations [14][15] - Overall business is strong, with no signs of a slowdown, and customer retention and satisfaction are high [14][15][16]

Core Insights - Sin stocks, representing companies in industries like alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, and gambling, have consistently outperformed broader markets due to strong cash flows and inelastic demand [2][4][11] Industry Overview - The U.S. alcoholic beverages market is projected to grow from $544.19 billion in 2024 to $709.13 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.4% [8] - The global tobacco market is expected to increase from $921.4 billion in 2024 to $1,198.4 billion by 2035, reflecting a CAGR of 2.3% from 2025 to 2035 [9] - The global online gambling market was valued at $78.66 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.9% from 2025 to 2030 [10] Company Insights - Molson Coors (TAP) is focusing on market share growth through innovation and premiumization in the alcohol sector [7] - Boyd Gaming (BYD) is enhancing growth through property upgrades and strategic investments in the gambling industry [7] - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is transforming towards a smoke-free future, aiming for a majority of its revenue from reduced-risk products by 2030 [13][15] - MGM Resorts International (MGM) is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery of the gaming and tourism industries, with a strong digital strategy through BetMGM [17][18] - Diageo Plc (DEO) is focusing on premiumization and innovation, with a strong portfolio of iconic brands and a strategy to enhance direct-to-consumer engagement [20][21][22]

Core Viewpoint - MGM Resorts International is expected to report a decline in earnings and revenues for the first quarter of 2025, with various factors influencing its performance, including strong domestic demand and macroeconomic challenges [1][2][6]. Financial Performance Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is 50 cents, reflecting a 32.4% decrease from 74 cents in the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus revenue estimate is approximately $4.27 billion, indicating a 2.5% decline from the previous year's figure [2]. Factors Influencing Performance - MGM's first-quarter performance is anticipated to benefit from robust domestic demand trends, strong Las Vegas operations, strategic convention bookings, and growth in digital platforms like BetMGM [3]. - Event-driven demand around the Super Bowl and January conventions is expected to have positively impacted performance, with Las Vegas operations' Average Daily Rates projected to grow in the mid-single digits, supported by record January occupancy levels of 94% [4]. Regional Operations and Bookings - The strong group bookings pipeline, enhanced by collaboration with Marriott and improvements to the Mandalay Bay Convention Center, is likely to support performance [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues from regional operations rooms is $67 million, slightly up from $66 million reported in the prior-year quarter [5]. Challenges and Headwinds - Persistent macroeconomic challenges, including inflation, competitive labor markets, and foreign currency fluctuations, are expected to negatively impact performance [6]. - Soft contributions from casino, rooms, and food and beverage sectors are anticipated, with estimated revenues of $2.2 billion, $937 million, and $740 million respectively, compared to higher figures in the prior-year quarter [7]. Cost Pressures - Elevated pre-opening costs related to MGM Grand hotel renovations and international expansion, particularly in Brazil, are likely to exert margin pressure [8]. - First-quarter EBITDAR growth in Las Vegas may be affected by an estimated $65 million year-over-year Super Bowl headwind and temporary room disruptions from renovation projects [8]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for MGM Resorts, as it lacks a positive Earnings ESP and holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Las Vegas Sands Corp. reported first-quarter 2025 results with earnings and revenues missing expectations, attributed to a challenging macro environment [1][3][4] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 were 59 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 60 cents by 1.7%, down from 73 cents in the same quarter last year [3] - Quarterly net revenues totaled $2.86 billion, falling short of the consensus mark of $2.88 billion and declining 3.3% year over year [4] Asian Operations - The Venetian Macao reported net revenues of $638 million, down from $771 million year-over-year, primarily due to decreased casino revenues [5] - The Londoner Macao's net revenues were $529 million, down from $562 million, with declines in casino, rooms, and food and beverage revenues [9] - The Parisian Macao's net revenues were $227 million, slightly down from $230 million, with stable revenues from rooms and food and beverage [13] - The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Macao saw net revenues increase to $208 million from $142 million, attributed to higher casino and rooms revenues [15] Operational Metrics - Adjusted property EBITDA for the Venetian Macao was $225 million, down from $314 million year-over-year [7] - Adjusted property EBITDA for the Londoner Macao was $153 million, down from $172 million [11] - Adjusted property EBITDA for the Parisian Macao was $66 million, compared to $71 million last year [14] - Adjusted property EBITDA for the Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Macao increased to $74 million from $36 million [16] Marina Bay Sands Performance - Marina Bay Sands in Singapore reported net revenues of $1.16 billion, up from $1.15 billion year-over-year, supported by increased room and mall revenues [20] - Adjusted property EBITDA for Marina Bay Sands was $605 million, up from $597 million [22] Consolidated Financials - On a consolidated basis, adjusted property EBITDA totaled $1.14 billion in Q1 2025, down from $1.21 billion in the previous year [23] - As of March 31, 2025, unrestricted cash balances were $3.04 billion, down from $3.65 billion in the previous quarter, while total debt outstanding increased to $13.71 billion from $13.62 billion [24]

Group 1: Share Buyback Programs - Several major firms have announced significant new share buyback programs as Q1 2025 concludes, with three stocks having buyback capacity of 8% or more of their market capitalizations [1] - Applied Materials has authorized a $10 billion share buyback program, bringing its total buyback capacity to $17.6 billion, which is nearly 14% of its $126 billion market capitalization [1] - Churchill Downs has approved a $500 million share repurchase program, resulting in a total buyback capacity of $626 million, approximately 8% of its $8 billion market capitalization [6] - DICK'S Sporting Goods announced a $3 billion share buyback program, giving it a total buyback capacity of approximately $3.51 billion, equal to 22% of its nearly $16 billion market capitalization [11][12] Group 2: Dividend Increases - Applied Materials announced a significant dividend increase of 15%, raising the payment to $0.46 per share, with a yield of 1.2% [4] - DICK'S Sporting Goods also raised its dividend by 10%, planning to pay a total of $4.85 over the next four quarters, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.5% [14] Group 3: Financial Performance and Metrics - Applied Materials has repurchased $4.4 billion worth of shares over the last four quarters, but the timing of these purchases was not optimal as the current share price is 19% lower than the average repurchase price of $192 [2][3] - Churchill Downs has repurchased $216 million worth of shares in the last 12 months, which is moderately above its average repurchase pace of $187 million over the past decade [7] - DICK'S Sporting Goods spent $268 million on share buybacks in fiscal 2024, below its average annual buyback pace of $430 million over the past 10 years, with the current share price being 8% lower than the average price paid for shares [13]