3 December 2025 India Emerging Consumer India Consumer: Light at the end of tunnel? Not yet. Jignanshu Gor +91 226 842 1494 jignanshu.gor@bernsteinsg.com 2025 was supposed to be the year the Indian Consumer made a comeback. Has it happened? We look at 3 data points to evaluate prospects of the much talked about "festive revival in 3Q F26": (a) NPCI-UPI data released by Merchant Category Code (b) App usage data for e- commerce companies and (c) Management commentary during 2Q F26 conference calls. UPI transa ...

Core Perspective - The company emphasizes the importance of aligning investments with ethical values, particularly in the context of faith-based investing, and aims to create positive impacts through its investment choices [1][4][5]. Investment Philosophy - The company has developed a framework called "business 360," which assesses how a company's products and services create or extract value from six key stakeholders: customers, employees, supply chain, host communities, environment, and society [2][3]. - The investment approach is rooted in a "love your neighbor" philosophy, focusing on ethical responsibility and the impact of business on the global common good [3][4]. Market Positioning - The company identifies a significant problem in the marketplace regarding values misalignment, where faith-driven investors unknowingly support companies that conflict with their values [5][19]. - The firm aims to provide a win-win investment opportunity that balances risk and return while ensuring that investments are aligned with positive values [10][14]. Investment Strategy - The company avoids sectors such as communication services, consumer staples, and defense, particularly those associated with addictive behaviors like alcohol, tobacco, and gambling [9][10]. - The firm has a dedicated team that collaborates with its investment team to identify companies that not only perform well financially but also have a positive societal impact [7][8]. Performance Expectations - The company believes that by focusing on qualitative aspects and value creation, it can achieve returns comparable to major indices like the S&P 500 while maintaining a values-driven approach [15][21]. - The firm screens out nearly 70% of the investable universe to ensure alignment with its ethical standards while still aiming for competitive returns [14][15]. Industry Trends - There is a growing trend towards faith-aligned investing, with an estimated $22 trillion held by church-attending Christians, indicating a potential shift in investment practices [19][20]. - The company believes that this movement will gain traction due to its foundation in biblical principles, which are seen as enduring and relevant [20][21].

A handful of problems have dragged this American icon's stock into the mud.The alcohol industry is going through what might be its most challenging time in recent history.Shares of just about every notable alcohol stock are down, including Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B 1.69%)(BF.A 1.83%). The company, most famous for its Jack Daniel's brand of American whiskey, has tumbled a whopping 66% from its high.Despite the stock's poor performance, Brown-Forman still shows significant promise moving forward. The company i ...

Core Insights - The FMCG market in China is expected to experience a period of adjustment, with an estimated annual sales growth of 0.9% in 2026, reflecting a cautious consumer spending environment [1] - Year-to-date (YTD) growth for total FMCG was 1.5% as of September 2025, but Q3 2025 saw a significant slowdown to just 0.7% compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a potential decline in consumer confidence [1] Food Segment - The food category is projected to grow by 3.0% in 2026, driven by consumer demand for convenience, nutrition, and premiumization, with YTD growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 4.4% in Q3 [3] Dairy Segment - The dairy category is forecasted to contract by 6.2% in 2026, continuing a negative trend with YTD growth of -6.1% and -6.8% in Q3, attributed to competition from plant-based alternatives and price sensitivity [4] Beverages Segment - The non-alcoholic beverages segment is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, down from 4.8% the previous year, with YTD growth of 4.9% in 2025 but a decline to 1.7% in Q3, indicating a cooling consumption trend [5] Alcohol Segment - The alcohol category is predicted to decline by 0.6% in 2026, with YTD growth of 0.9% in 2025 overshadowed by a 4.2% contraction in Q3, reflecting consumer caution regarding discretionary spending [6] Household and Personal Care - Household care is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2026, with YTD growth of 3.1% but a slowdown to 1.7% in Q3, while personal care is forecasted to decline marginally by -0.1% in 2026, with YTD growth of 1.1% and stagnation in Q3 [7] Growth Opportunities - There are growth opportunities in lower-tier cities, supported by e-commerce and omnichannel retail. Categories focusing on health, functionality, and sustainability are gaining traction, and brands that innovate and align with consumer lifestyles will be well-positioned for success [8]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. is facing challenges in the alcohol market, particularly due to the impact of GLP-1 drugs that reduce cravings for alcohol, affecting sales of its major brands like Corona and Modelo [1][2] - The company's stock has seen a decline, with a current valuation at 12 times earnings, which is noted as the lowest seen, although this multiple contraction is considered justified given recent performance [1] Company Overview - Constellation Brands produces and markets a variety of alcoholic beverages, including beer, wine, and spirits, under well-known brands such as Corona, Modelo, Robert Mondavi, Kim Crawford, and SVEDKA [2] - The company has been described as a "fallen idol" in the consumer packaged goods sector, reflecting broader issues within the alcohol industry [2] Market Context - The alcohol industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with Constellation Brands exemplifying the struggles faced by companies in this sector [2] - The introduction and popularity of GLP-1 drugs are significantly impacting consumer behavior, particularly in relation to alcohol consumption [2]

Company Insights - Tesla is expected to make a significant announcement regarding a new vehicle, potentially the next generation Roadster or a lower-cost Model Y, with shares rising over 5% on speculation [1][2][3] - AMD shares surged in double digits due to company-specific news, while Nvidia and Intel saw declines as they compete in the same space [6][7] - Constellation Brands reported better-than-expected earnings but forecasts continued declines in beer, wine, and spirits, with shares up about 1% [9][11] Industry Trends - Gold prices reached an all-time high above $3,900, climbing 50% this year, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut and economic uncertainties [4] - Bitcoin surpassed $125,000 for the first time, gaining over 10% in the past week and showing strong historical performance in October [5] - The trucking industry is facing a new 25% tariff on medium and heavy-duty trucks starting November 1, as announced by President Trump [8][11] Consumer Behavior - McCormick is set to report on consumer demand trends for spices and seasonings, particularly as more people cook at home and become health-conscious, while also navigating higher commodity prices and inflationary pressures [11][12]

Market Overview - The market is currently driven by individual investors, with the Dow gaining 239 points, S&P advancing 0.1%, and NASDAQ increasing by 28 points [1] - There is a notable fear of missing out among professional investors, leading to increased buying activity as the year-end approaches [1] - Various asset classes, including crypto and gold, have seen upward movement, despite professionals viewing many as overvalued [1] Company Earnings and Reports - Constellation Brands is set to report earnings, facing challenges due to declining volumes and stock performance, with a current P/E ratio of 12 [1] - McCormick is expected to report earnings, but its premium valuation may not be justified in a declining packaged food market [1] - Dell is anticipated to hold an analyst meeting, focusing on its collaboration with Nvidia in artificial intelligence, which could positively impact stock performance [1] - PepsiCo is under pressure from activist investor Elliot Management, with a focus on potential management changes as it reports earnings [2] - Delta Airlines has been a strong performer but is still down 5% for the year, with ongoing consumer appetite for travel [2] - Levi Strauss is expected to report earnings, having shown reliability despite tariffs and achieving a 52-week high last quarter [2] Economic Indicators - Comments from Austin Goolsbee, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, suggest the economy may be too strong for rate cuts, which could impact market sentiment [2] - There is a need for vigilance regarding signs of economic weakness as the market approaches earnings season, with potential challenges if the Fed does not take action [3] Speculative Opportunities - There is interest in a rare earth play that is currently under the radar, indicating potential speculative investment opportunities [4]

Core Insights - Sin stocks, associated with industries like alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, weapons, and gambling, are often seen as morally controversial but have a history of delivering strong returns [2][3] - These stocks attract investors due to resilient demand, high profit margins, and strong cash flows, making them profitable even during economic downturns [3][4] Economic Defensiveness - Sin stocks benefit from persistent demand regardless of economic cycles, as people continue to engage in smoking, drinking, and gambling [4] - Companies in this sector often possess strong pricing power, brand loyalty, and consistent cash flows, appealing to investors focused on returns [4] Regulatory Moats - Many sin stocks enjoy regulatory barriers that deter new entrants, allowing established companies to dominate their markets [6] - Government oversight and compliance costs create high barriers, which, combined with aggressive marketing, help sustain profitability [6] Company Examples - Altria Group (MO) has maintained dividends and returns despite scrutiny and regulation, focusing on shareholder value through consistent payouts and buybacks [5] - Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) operates in regions with entrenched gambling cultures, holding licenses and infrastructure that are difficult to replicate [7] Sector Trends - Consumer preferences are shifting, with alcohol companies benefiting from premiumization and tobacco firms pivoting to reduced-risk products [10] - The cannabis sector is expanding in legalized regions, presenting high-growth potential but also increased volatility [10] Regulatory Impact - Stricter regulations can limit operations, while favorable changes, such as new gambling legislation, can create new opportunities [11] - Global expansion into less restrictive markets enhances growth prospects for sin stocks [11] Investment Opportunities - Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR) is positioned in the Las Vegas locals gaming market, benefiting from high barriers to entry and a strong loyalty program [14][15] - Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) combines traditional racing with technology-driven platforms, focusing on disciplined capital deployment and innovation [17][18] - Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) leads in brewing with a strategy focused on premium segments and digital engagement, ensuring resilience across markets [19][20]

Brand Growth - Surfside became the fastest-growing alcohol brand in America [1] Media - Article discusses how Surfside achieved rapid growth [1]

Industry Overview - The alcohol industry is experiencing significant changes due to shifting consumer preferences, economic pressures, and evolving regulatory landscapes [1] - Legacy players are facing challenges while innovative possibilities are emerging within the industry [1] Company Focus - Constellation Brands is positioned at the center of the transformation occurring in the alcohol industry [1]